Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Startups in Depth has over 500 plays ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Joe Biden picks Kamala Harris as VP (during campaign) ( 70% confidence )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by sam_jaques on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Kamala Harris ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Gretchen Whitmer ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Michelle Lujan Grisham ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Maggie Hassan ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Stacey Abrams ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Someone else ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged right by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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https://covid19-projections.com/ estimates less than 3% of Nevada is infected right now ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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https://covid19-projections.com/ estimates <15% of the country has been infected ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Coronavirus Nevada numbers are posted on Wikipedia for yesterday ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Susan Rice becomes Biden's VP choice ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-08-11.
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I have more than 5 Anki's to do ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Lakers are first or second in the west ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Raptors are second in the east ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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NBA playoffs start next week ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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High is less than 110 today ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Alex has an A in the addiction class ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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SendGrid issue with attachments is already fixed ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-10; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Alex gets an A on her essay ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-08-06; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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I will receive at least 1 significant – where significant means they've identified a key flaw in my simulation or reasoning – critique of my blog post on rapid testing. ( 25% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-11.
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I will receive at least 1 significant – where significant means they've identified a key flaw in my simulation or reasoning – critique of my blog post on rapid testing. ( 25% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-11.
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Bitcoin will have gone past $12,000 in the next three months. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-05-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-08-11.
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Conditional on trying to nap sometime before 1:00 PM today, I will fall asleep. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by EliTyre on 2020-08-10.
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I'll be able to test a deploy of HC by eod Monday ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-10.
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Response from Facebook guy tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-10.
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I won't have finished reading either Superforecasting, Faust or the law book by the end of the week ( 75% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-10.
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I'm going to nap sometime before 1:00 PM today. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by EliTyre on 2020-08-10.
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A certificate of impact has been issued at some point before today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-11-15; judged right by EliTyre on 2020-08-10.
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Startups in Depth has over 50 plays ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
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A team signs Antonio Brown | football season not cancelled ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-12-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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Therapy costs > $100/month for full access ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
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New Thinking Basketball podcast is available ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-10; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
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Coronavirus in Nevada went up more than 2% yesterday ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
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Coronavirus in Nevada numbers from yesterday are available now ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
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More than one regular season game left for the Pacers ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
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I won't have finished Unit 7 of the sight singing program by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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[I won't finish (being reasonably satisfied with the chords / melodies) transcribing the piece by Moondog] by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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I will have finished studying all the probability distributions by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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I will have finished both of the macro chapters by the end of the week ( 55% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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I will have contacted my prof Am. by the end of the week ( 55% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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No new major mandatory isolation law or something similar in the city I am currently living this week ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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Pakistan beat England in first Test 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-09.
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Before the end of 2014, at least ten more schools will adopt Meditation programs following the four at San Fransisco (http://tinyurl.com/sanmed) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by platypus42 on 2014-02-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-08-09.