Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Bharat will export USD $1 trillion worth of merchandise in 2020. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-14; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Macron will win the French 2020 elections ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 11 to 20 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 31 to 40 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 11% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] any other candidate ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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Yasuhiro Nakasone will become the longest-lived Prime Minister of Japan ( 15% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2020-07-13; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-07-13.
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Will Andrzej Duda be reelected as a president of Poland? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Polish_presidential_election ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michal_Dubrawski on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by Michal_Dubrawski on 2020-07-13.
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The West Indies win against England in the first Test ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-07-13; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-12.
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Arizona's daily new COVID cases count will be >=6000, as measured by Google's tracker: https://g.co/kgs/8UHaz1, on July 11, 2020. ( 75% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-13; known on 2020-07-11; judged wrong by krazemon on 2020-07-11.
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Texas's daily new confirmed COVID cases will be >=8000 as of July 11, 2020, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9be2zJ). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-13; known on 2020-07-11; judged right by krazemon on 2020-07-11.
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Florida's daily new COVID cases count will be >=7500, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9XhcYm), on July 11, 2020. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-13; known on 2020-07-11; judged right by krazemon on 2020-07-11.
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Trump to comment on Kanye's presidential bid ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-11.
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Germany RKI reports more than 1000 CoViD-19 cases on a day within the next month ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-08; known on 2020-07-08; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-07-11.
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If Sweden doesn't implement lockdowns, then their per capita coronavirus deaths will exceed the average of the other Nordic countries by 25% or more. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-07-10; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-11.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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Corbyn to become PM ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-07-05; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-09.
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Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-07-09.
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COVID, US – Daily deaths exceed 900 for a day in July. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-04; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-08.
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Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
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Politics, US – Someone is charged in relation to car driven into protestors on Interstate 5 in Seattle on the 4th of July 2020 by end of July. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-06.
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Dominican Republican presidential election to return a winner in the first round ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-07-06; judged right by Cato on 2020-07-06.
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Greater than 70% of cars bought in 2020 will be electric ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-07-05.
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COVID – Worldwide daily deaths for a day in June exceed 5800. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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COVID, US – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 1600. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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COVID, US – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 1600. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Tech – Apple announces AR or VR hardware during WWDC 2020. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Tech – Apple announces an ARM-based device running macOS for launch in 2020 at WWDC 2020. ( 13% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Tech – Apple announces at least one new smart speaker model whose price is below $299 during WWDC. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Politics, UK – Dominic Cummings resigns or is fired from their job, or changes position or title, before end of June 2020. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Tech – Apple announces a version of Xcode for at least some devices running iOS or iPadOS during WWDC. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Tech – Apple announces that iOS 14 or iPadOS 14 will contain the ability to change the default email app and/or default browser during WWDC 2020. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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There will be at least 160.000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus in China on July 1, 2020. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-03-30; known on 2020-07-04; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-07-04.
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Politics, US – Section 215 of the Patriot Act renewed by end of June 2020. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-03.
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Politics, US – US changes export control regulations to treat Hong Kong equivalently to mainland China before end of June 2020. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-03.
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Politics, US – US removes all privileges afforded Hong Kong by the United-States Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 before end of June 2020. ( 8% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-03.
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Vote on Russian constitutional amendment on July 1 to get more than 65% support ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2020-07-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-03.
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COVID, UK – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 400. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-02.
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Arsenal do not lose today. ( 89% confidence )
Created by MikeMitchell on 2020-07-01; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by MikeMitchell on 2020-07-02.
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I will weigh more than 190 lbs on 2020-07-01 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-11; known on 2020-07-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-07-02.
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[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Ryan + Andrew ( 35% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-01.