Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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<2M coronavirus deaths. ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 86% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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Clippers win ( 50% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31.
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England will beat Ireland in the 2020-07-30 ODI ( 90% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-30; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-30.
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Zvi interprets this week as at least moderately better than expected ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30.
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Bk. will have answered my message by the end of the month ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-07-30.
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The Democratic Nominee for president at the end of the 2020 Primaries will not support Medicare-for-All (as distinct from 'for all who want it', 'public option', or 'Path to M4A') ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jackzilla on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-17; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.
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France holds 'leave EU' referendum ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.
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I figure out the Atlas bug ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
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The Atlas bug is due to my password being incorrect ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
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I figure out the Heroku deployment issue ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
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grunt-node-inspector is the issue with my Heroku deployment ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
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I get all of my Anki cards correct today ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28; known on 2020-07-28; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
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Facebook gives me an interview ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.
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I get the database migration for Poker Club Tools working by the end of the day ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.
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England win the 3 match Test series against WI ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-07-28; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-28.
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Customer support responds by 6pm ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28; known on 2020-07-28; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.
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I'm able to finish all of the database migrations by 6pm ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-07-27; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.
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I will not meet anyone from Tinder in person in July ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-07-27.
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I will have met someone in person from Tinder by the end of August ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-07-27.
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[Fighting] Frank Shamrock to be in the UFC Hall of Fame as of 2020-07-23 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-27.
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[Fighting] Dana White to be president of the UFC as of 2020-07-23 ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by Cato on 2020-07-27.
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More prospective hires apply on 2020-07-25 than 2020-07-24 (relative to Chicago time) ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-26; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-07-26.
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Tech – OnePlus Nord's UK release price is £400 or less. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-25.
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Tech – OnePlus Nord is released by deadline and has a 90Hz refresh rate screen in all models. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-25.
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Somehow today I will get this network to have < .3 error ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-07-25.
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I will let the network train for 300 epochs and by the end of them it'll not have achieved < .3 error ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-07-24.
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If I train all the 1000 epochs, the neural net will achieve < 0.5 training loss at some point ( 97% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by fandangos on 2020-07-24.
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The Washington Redskins will change their name by the end of 2020. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-23.
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Bol Bol's block to 3 is the play of the night ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23; known on 2020-07-23; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23.
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One or more people show up to the Indie Hackers meetup ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-07-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23.
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Two or more people show up to the Indie Hackers meetup ( 5% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-07-23; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23.
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England will win the second Test against WI ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-16; known on 2020-07-21; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-20.
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known on 2020-07-18; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-18.
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Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23851223 makes the front page within 60 minutes from now ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-15.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Greece exists from the EU ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-07-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Burr And Feinstein Anti-Perfect-Forward-Encryption bill passes ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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2 or more of { US, Russia, China, Israel } engaged in physical war AND lead up to said war involves { kill switches, mass DDOS, some other kind of computer-related 'attack' } ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Virtual Retinal Displays become the dominant technology for heads up displays ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PrometheanFaun on 2013-05-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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'Amazon builds its first bricks-and-mortar superstore.' ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Macron will complete his term successfully ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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This site would become viral if the admins incorporated facebook integration (eg, your public predictions could automatically get shared on facebook). ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.