PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

there are 80~100 pyramids of giza. ( 20% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

ozone has 3 oxyzens in it ( 100% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

corvette was introduced in 1970s ( 10% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

adventure of sherlock homles was written by conan doyle ( 49% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

old man and the sea was written by Hemingway ( 50% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

amazon is the longest river ( 80% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

texas is the physically largest state ( 50% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

twitter's original name? wuphf? ( 1% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

octopus has no hearts ( 20% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

Mansour is the richest man ( 20% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

http stands for hyper text transportation protocol? ( 90% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

sean connery was playing 007 on 5 james bond movies. ( 40% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

neutron is the one which has no electric charge. ( 100% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

Jupiter ( 90% confidence )

Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.

Issa will get another girlfriend in this century ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2020-09-09.

uBeam will not (within 5 years) ship a wireless charging product that transmits more than 5W to a portable receiver. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by James Babcock on 2015-07-30; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-09.

[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 17% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-08.

[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Stacey Abrams ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-08.

JCI finishes down between .5 and 1.5% ( 60% confidence )

Created by KwameA on 2020-09-08; known on 2020-09-08; judged right by KwameA on 2020-09-08.

Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.

Jaylen Samuels makes the roster ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-05.

Us declares war on Iran by september 2020 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tschescheier on 2018-05-12; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-05.

After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%). ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04.

Tuzar Skipper makes the roster ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-04.

Literature – Part three of the Kingkiller Chronicle trilogy is not going to be released in August 2020. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-04.

Will California pay out any part of Trump's federal unemployment benefits in August? ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Stephen on 2020-08-13; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-09-03.

at least one of my housemates will catch covid-19 in the next two weeks ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by enolan on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-09-03.

I have covid-19 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by enolan on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-09-03.

I will send my newsletter on time ( 95% confidence )

Created by grin on 2020-09-02; known on 2020-09-02; judged right by grin on 2020-09-03.

The government of Quebec will start using an open source operating system (instead of Windows) during the mandate of the next government. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-09-03.

Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-02.

[The S&P 500 will experience a 50% decline from it's high in ] August. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-09-01.

Crude oil above $45 when August ends ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-09-01.

COVID, US – Daily deaths exceed 2000 for any day in August 2020. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.

COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 for any day in August 2020. ( 15% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.

COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 for any day in August 2020. ( 15% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.

COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 for any day in August 2020. ( 15% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.

Conditioned on me playing at least 2000 hands, I will be a losing poker player by the end of August ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

Before the end of August, I will have bought contracts in a prediction market ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I will not have published more than 2 new blog posts by the end of August ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I will not be able to do a single chin-up starting from the bottom by th end of August ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I will be able to do at least 1 set of 3 push-ups (horizontally on the floor) by the end of August ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I will have finished >= half the content for the A. test by the end of August ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I won't have finished (being reasonably satisfied with melodies / chords) transcription of Moondog piece by the end of the month ( 40% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I won't have finished all pieces from Part A of the sight singing program until the end of August ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I will have made a push-up with reasonable (not necessarily perfect) form on the floor until the end of August ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

Tech – Fortnite is returned to the Google Play Store by end of August 2020. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.

Tech – A version update, such that the titlebar version ceases to be 1.7.12.0, is released for MSFS before end of the 30th of August. ( 33% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.

Tech – A fix or workaround for MSFS SimConnect performance issues is available by end of August 2020. ( 28% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.

I will weigh between 165-175 pounds by end of August 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by avi on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by avi on 2020-08-31.

Statistics

Judged Predictions