Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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There'll be a global average “dip” in the rate of population increase directly attributable to people voluntarily forgoing having kids due to climate change fears ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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The Amazon Rainforest fire makes at least two tribal languages extinct ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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Climate change news related psychological disorders (including stress and anxiety induced by news) spawns a new branch of psychiatry ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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I'll use predictionbook at least three more days by Sunday ( 40% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-17; judged right by Radish on 2020-08-17.
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By August 15, 2020, the Financial Post in Canada won't exist, and this column's link won't be available. opinion/lawrence-solomon-how-teslas-elon-musk-became-the-master-of-fake-business ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by saskboy on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-08-15; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-16.
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I will finish 70% of the problems within “MIT: The Missing Semester” this week. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-17; judged right by Stephen on 2020-08-16.
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Tech – Garmin confirms that its outage during July 2020 was the result of ransomware or malware more broadly by the end of August 2020. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-16.
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I will see C at the A moveout this weekend ( 99% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-16; judged right by Radish on 2020-08-16.
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I meet Gl. this week ( 56% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I'll finish reading Superforecasting this week ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I will have more money on PS than I deposited at the end of the week ( 54% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I will have finished the classic macro + accounting readings on Sunday ( 71% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I will have contacted Amr. by the end of the week ( 37% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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The USA government foreign policy will concentrate on attacking little countries like Grenada that are nearby rather than on big distant ones like Iraq after August 2010 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gavinl on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-08-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-08-16.
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'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-08-16.
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there will be a huge explosion again.. ( 50% confidence )
Created by smodnix on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-07; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-16.
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Las Vegas casinos will be closed at some point in 2020 due to a second wave of the coronavirus ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by NickN on 2020-08-16.
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[___ is in the next three in the Ranking The Steelers series] Joe Haden ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
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[___ is in the next three in the Ranking The Steelers series] Steven Nelson ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
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Devin Bush is in the next three for the Ranking The Steelers series ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
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Next Ranking The Steelers article posted by Friday ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-15; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
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Dentist will strongly recommend a procedure after cleaning tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged right by Radish on 2020-08-14.
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Created by maneesh on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by maneesh on 2020-08-14.
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Response from SendGrid this week ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-14.
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Donald doesn't think I made significant mistakes in general ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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[Zvi's article] Sees this week as significantly positive ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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[Zvi's article] Sees this week as moderately positive ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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[Zvi's article] Sees this week as slightly positive ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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[Zvi's article] Sees this week as negative ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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[Zvi's article] Sees this week as neutral ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.
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Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
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[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 50-70% chance of winning ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-08-12.
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[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 70-80% chance of winning ( 20% confidence )
Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged right by amadeu on 2020-08-12.
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[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 80-90% chance of winning ( 50% confidence )
Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-08-12.
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[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 90-100% chance of winning ( 25% confidence )
Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-08-12.
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Trump will not be impeached during his first term ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2016-11-25; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-12.
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Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-15; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-08-12.
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Donald Trump maintains effective control (including through close family) of his businesses through US midterms. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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A bot will win in a series of Starcraft 2 games against human professional (anyone from Top 100 Leaderboard) using visual API similar to pysc2 https://github.com/deepmind/pysc2 by the end of year 2019 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tsepaka on 2017-11-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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ACA repealed before US midterm elections and 2019 number of people without healthcare insurance > 15m higher than 2016 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Sans from Undertale is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
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Austin Petersen will be the Libertarian Party's nominee for president in 2020 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Greenham on 2017-02-24; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Joe Biden will pick Stacey Abrams as his running mate. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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I get a job offer from Reddit ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-09-22; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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I get all of my Anki's correct today except quicksort ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-12.
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Coronavirus cases for Nevada yesterday went up less than 2% ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Paperwork takes less than 15 minutes ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Reddit gives me an interview ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.