Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
Sprouts order matches what I ordered ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-08.
-
SendGrid responds to my help request this week ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-08; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-08.
-
I will write one post on my math blog. ( 80% confidence )
Created by vincentluczkow on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-12; judged right by vincentluczkow on 2020-08-07.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as weakly positive overall ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as negative overall ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as moderately positive overall ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as strongly positive overall ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] Mentions that all sports should be in a bubble ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] Mentions the election ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
Able to find Pete via reference number ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
Answer right away next time I call ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
Sprouts has frozen green peas in stock ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
I can get free Sprouts delivery from Sprouts ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
Daily increase in coronavirus cases is >= 2.0% ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05.
-
Arsenal will win the 2020 FA Cup Final. ( 30% confidence )
Created by MikeMitchell on 2020-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by MikeMitchell on 2020-08-04.
-
Brian invites me back to play poker ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-08-30; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
Podcast runs for 2+ hours ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-08-04; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it helps the Sixers (my reason is because of their home vs away record and bad seed) ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it hurts the Raptors ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it helps the Lakers ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it hurts the Nuggets ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[Personal] According to the Waking Up app, I'll have spent at least 2000 minutes meditating in the rest of 2020. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-08-03.
-
90%+ on quiz ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
The answer is body talk ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
Bucks beat Rockets ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
I get the emailing a spreadsheet thing working today ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
I will not have finished reading Superforecasting by the end of July ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
-
Until the end of the month, the balances in the betting game I'm playing with Vt. will not go beyond 150/50 either way ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
-
I'll not play live poker until the end of July ( 95% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
-
By the end of the week, I will still have made a profit playing poker ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
-
I will Zoom / Skype / Hangout with at least 1 friend this week ( 85% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
-
I won't bike with N. next weekend ( 65% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-02; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
-
By the end of the week, I will have get publishable – even if not awesome – results with my neural network ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
-
Noodles taste better cold ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02.
-
A team signs Antonio Brown | football season not cancelled ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-12-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
-
Politics, UK – General instruction to all pubs to close is rescinded by end of July 2020. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
-
Business, UK – Greene King announces that it will not charge its pub landlords rent for at least some period of the COVID-19 closures by end of July. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
-
Business, UK – Greene King announces that it will not charge its pub landlords rent for at least some period of the COVID-19 closures by end of July. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
-
Personal – I weigh less than 63kg by the end of July. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
-
New York City will not be subject to any executive orders restricting movement or gathering on August 1st, 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by panashe on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by panashe on 2020-08-01.
-
COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 on a day in July. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-08-01.
-
Total COVID-19 deaths in China will be less than 4000 by August. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-08-01.
-
Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 25% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.
-
I get the bugs fixed and sending working today ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
Felipe emails me back today ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
Guy wants the basic plan | makes the purchase ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-26; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
Guy ends up making the purchase ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-26; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
The bug is because the batch add endpoint not doing enough ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 8/1 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-07-31.
-
I get Twilio working today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31.