Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jan + Henck ( 40% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-07-01.
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[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jim + Ralph ( 10% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-07-01.
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[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Sarah + Jordan ( 15% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-07-01.
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All US-China trade war tariffs (imposed since June 2018) are not in effect ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-01.
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Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-30.
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U.S. 10yr Treasury yield dips below 0.5% in second quarter of 2020 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-06-30.
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Politics, US – In deciding June Medical Services v. Russo, SCOTUS explicitly overrules its ruling in Whole Women’s Health v. Hellerstedt, declaring it should have been decided otherwise. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-29.
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Politics, US – SCOTUS upholds the fifth circuit's judgement in June Medical Services v. Russo. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-29.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-29.
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[Fighting] Chael Sonnen to fight again by 2020-06-27 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-26; known on 2020-06-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-27.
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The Washington Post, unlike other newspapers, will expand parts of its newsroom ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-06-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-26.
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Arsenal does not lose it's game on Saturday. ( 75% confidence )
Created by MikeMitchell on 2020-06-24; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by MikeMitchell on 2020-06-25.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Joe Biden ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] any other candidate ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Joe Biden ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Joe Biden ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-23.
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[For coronavirus 2019] Mortality rate of total pop in America will be under .01% by 2021. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-23.
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[For coronavirus 2019] most danger will be gone by June 15th, 2020. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-23.
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Beto O'Rourke becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-22.
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[Politics] The Mueller investigation will not produce any criminal charges against Trump ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-22.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for May 2020 to exceed 110 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-06-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-22.
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German Corona warning app goes live in June ( 70% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-07; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-06-21.
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Politics, US – Geoffrey Berman, the US Attorney in Manhattan, resigns or is fired by the end of July 2020. ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21.
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The English Premier League (professional football league) will cancel the remainder of the 2019/2020 season ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by panashe on 2020-05-09; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by panashe on 2020-06-20.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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Politics, UK – Scottish government states that people can visit friends at their homes again by end of June. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-20.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Melissa ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged right by Deepak on 2020-06-19.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Bryan ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-19.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Stephanie ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-19.