Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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At least one card from Temur Adventures will be banned as of next Friday. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2020-09-25; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2020-10-05.
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COVID, UK – Pubs are closed again, at the national level, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently reopened. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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Politics, Belarus – Election recount or rerun with international observers occurs or is announced by the government by end of September 2020. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of September 2020 ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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COVID, UK – Pubs are closed again, in Edinburgh, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently reopened. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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Politics, UK – Extinction Rebellion as an organisation is classified as an organised crime or terrorism group on any government list, proscribed, or otherwise legally restricted in a manner not extending to other organisations by end of Sep. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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COVID, UK – Pubs have restricted opening hours (including but not requiring full closure), at the national level, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently lifted. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-19; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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Toby Ord comments on my post to clarify what he actually believes ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-10-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2020-10-03.
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The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by gurgus on 2021-07-19.
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[The S&P 500 will experience a 50% decline from it's high in ] September ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-10-02.
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[The S&P 500 will experience a 50% decline from it's high in ] September ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-10-02.
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I'll finish my webcam teleprompter and use it on at least one full call in September ( 73% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by grin on 2020-10-01.
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I will make at least 30 predictions in september ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by grin on 2020-09-02; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by grin on 2020-10-01.
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I won't catch COVID by the end of September or believe reasonably likely (say, >= 20%) that I did ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-09-01; known on 2020-09-30; judged right by fandangos on 2020-10-01.
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No one in my extended family will test positive for COVID && be hospitalized in September ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-09-01; known on 2020-09-30; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-30.
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I'll take the GRE before October AND get a grade of at least 320 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-09-30; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-30.
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OSU is online only by 28 September ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-09-29; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-29.
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The Swiss limitation initiative will fail ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-26; known on 2020-09-28; judged right by Deepak on 2020-09-27.
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Immediately after Copenhagen, I will decide on a PhD. ( 1% confidence )
Created by vlad.proex on 2020-07-15; known on 2020-09-26; judged wrong by vlad.proex on 2020-09-27.
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COVID, UK – On any day in September 2020, there are 2000 recorded new cases of COVID-19 in the UK. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-09-27.
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Basement construction will be finished by Sept 25 EOD ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by grin on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-09-26; judged wrong by grin on 2020-09-26.
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UK does not exceed 5000 confirmed Coronavirus cases in a single day by the end of 2020 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2020-09-26.
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Scott Galloway: SoftBank's Vision Fund will be shuttered within 12 months ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2020-09-22; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-09-24.
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I will write one (new) post on my effort post blog ( 30% confidence )
Created by vincentluczkow on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-09-05; judged wrong by vincentluczkow on 2020-09-20.
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Basement construction will be finished by Sept 18 EOD ( 55% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-09-19; judged wrong by grin on 2020-09-19.
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[Geopolitics , Belarus , Russia] Little Green Men (or equivalent) shows up in Belarus within 1 (one) month. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-08-15; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-09-18.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.
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Tyson Alualu starts at NT week one ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-09-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-16.
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Collision between Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-15.
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Collision between Chinese and US naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-15.
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[US politics] Someone other than Donald Trump to win at least one state in the 2020 Republican presidential primary ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-16; known on 2020-08-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-15.
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In 31 days from now, I'll have earned at least 100 USD from “beermoney” services ( 45% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-08-14; known on 2020-09-14; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-09-14.
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NFL season starts on time ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-09-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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TSLA to split stocks by end of 2020 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azatris on 2020-06-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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Gary Johnson gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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Worldwide economy 'blows up'. all of: over 100 bank failures, loss of basic access to foodstuffs in major US city, <0% growth of gdp for 2 years in china, g7 nation declares martial law to deal with economic problems ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2020-11-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2020 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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The transition from the XOF franc to the eco will be complete in all countries currently using XOF. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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Reddit gives me an interview ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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I get a job offer from Reddit ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-09-22; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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I pass the phone screen for Google ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-09-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-11.
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I have learned all words in all 7 levels of Memrise Russian. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-05-14; known on 2020-09-24; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-11.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 1 to 10 ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-11.
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OSU is online only by 8 September ( 15% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-11.
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there are 8 harry porter main timeline movies. (i guess 7th one was separated into 2 movies.) ( 70% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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nike was founded in 1970s ( 40% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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richard branson own virgin airways? ( 20% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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what is femer? maybe in the head part? ( 1% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.