Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 0 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 1 to 10 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 1 to 10 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 0 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Elizabeth Warren will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Bernie Sanders ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Hilary Clinton ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Cory Booker ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kamala Harris ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Joe Biden ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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US Politics: Republican nominee for Vice President to be Mike Pence ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-08-27; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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TJ Warren regresses and averages < 25ppg on <65 TS% from here until the end of the season + postseason ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-25.
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The AI will beat the human pilot in the AlphaDogfight Trials. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-08-24.
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I will get the UHaul truck I reserved on Saturday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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I will get a Uhaul truck on Saturday ( 85% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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Packing the major items in our apartment will take less than 3 hours ( 75% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged wrong by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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I will get a truck by the end of the weekend ( 90% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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Politics, UK – New agency specifically for handling pandemics announced by the UK government by end of August. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.
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Politics, UK – Ofqual switches to using teacher predicted grades rather than their current school + relative ranking model to assign exam scores by deadline. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.
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Politics, UK – New agency specifically for handling pandemics announced by the UK government by end of 2020-08-23. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-08-24; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.
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[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >=15% contained by Sunday 9AM Pacific ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-23.
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New ice cream will be gone before Friday evening ( 30% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged wrong by Radish on 2020-08-23.
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I am still at SFDC in 5 years ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2020-08-22.
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My squat rack will arrive on or before august 21. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-08-22; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Andrew Yang ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] John Hickenlooper ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kirsten Gillibrand ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women ( 10% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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“President HRC will face an attempt by a Republican Congress to cut her pay.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-19; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-21.
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Personal – I successfully fully download, including content, sufficient to launch, MSFS 2020 by end of 2020-08-18. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-08-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-21.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >100k acres affected by Sunday 9am ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-20.
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[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >=50k acres affected by Sunday 9AM ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-20.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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If I meet with Adam and Anna today, I'm going to find it as effective or more effective than our other convos. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2020-08-18.
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I will stream to twitch over 20 hours this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-17; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-08-17.
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I am going to have a second iteration of my conversation with Jack sometime in August. ( 83% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by EliTyre on 2020-08-17.