PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include fewer than five Americans in the top 10 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least 7 Americans in the top 10 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least six Americans in the top 10 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least five Americans in the top 10 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give an American top spot ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give Angela Merkel top spot ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give Theresa May top spot ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include anyone from mainland China in top 10 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Estonia Reform Party leader Kaja Kallas ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Fighting] Tito Ortiz to fight in 2019 ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Fighting] UFC 245 to occur in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-17.

[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $1,250,000 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.

[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $750,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.

[Politics] By 2019-12-14, Hong Kong government to pass law that would allow extradition to mainland PRC ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-06-13; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.

Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2019 ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.

Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2021 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.

Saudi Aramco's IPO valuation to be less than $2 trillion, conditional on IPO before 2020 EOY ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.

Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2020 ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.

[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.

[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.7 MMbpd ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.

[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] OPEC to produce at least 32 MMbpd ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.

[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] UK to produce at least 1.4 MMbpd ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.

[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.7 MMbpd ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.

[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1 MMbpd ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.

[Commodities] As of December 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of November 2019 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.

[Commodities] As of November 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of October 2019 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-12-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.

Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 Driver's Championship 2019. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by skateboard34 on 2019-07-08; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12.

[Commodities] Iran to be a member of OPEC as of 2019-12-12 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-12.

[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-12.

[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-12.

[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-12.

Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-12-11.

Vice President Mike Pence to make any public comment regarding the impeachment hearings ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-18; known on 2019-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-12-11.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-09.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-09.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-12-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-12-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.

Additional predictions appear, written in Spanish. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-12; known on 2019-12-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-12-08.

Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.

[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers )