PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[SC2] Maru makes it out of Group B ( 60% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.

[SC2] SpeCial makes it out of Group A ( 34% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.

[SC2] soO makes it out of Group A ( 44% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.

[SC2] ShoWTimE makes it out of Group A ( 30% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.

[SC2] Dark makes it out of Group A ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.

PG&E blackouts resume before the end of this week ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-22; known on 2019-10-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-24.

[Politics] Conservatives to win more seats than Liberals in Canada's federal election ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-22.

[Politics] Canadian federal election to be held as scheduled on October 21, 2019 ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-22.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for September 2019 to exceed 110 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-10-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-22.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for September 2019 to exceed 110 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-10-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-22.

[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Joseph Saelee ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-21.

[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] someone who has never won a Classic Tetris World Championship before ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-21.

[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Greentea ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Jani ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Svavar ( 20% confidence )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Batfoy ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Matt Buco ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] DanQZ ( 75% confidence )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Joseph Saelee ( 90% confidence )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Greentea ( 80% confidence )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Koryan ( 75% confidence )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Harry Hong ( 50% confidence )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Jonas Neubauer ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Jonas Neubauer ( 90% confidence )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.

[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 8 ( 90% confidence )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.

The lowest qualifying score for entry into the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be above 700000 points ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.

[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 12 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.

[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 15 ( 30% confidence )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.

[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 18 ( 10% confidence )

Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.

EA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.

[REDACTED INDIVIDUAL CODE A] is no longer working at [REDACTED ORG CODE A] in six months ( 70% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2019-04-25; known on 2019-10-25; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.

EA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC) ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.

Iran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by kess3r on 2009-10-15; known on 2019-10-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-16.

Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.

Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.

Eliud Kipchoge's October 2019 “Ineos 1:59 Challenge” marathon time will be less than 2:00:00 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-07-04; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-12.

[Prizes] A Chinese citizen to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-12.

[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-12.

Games Workers Unite will be generally considered a failure on October 1st 2019 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by enolan on 2018-03-23; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-10-11.

Still at my current employer a year from now. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-10.

It will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2019-10-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-10.

[Commodities] As of October 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of September 2019 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.

Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q3 ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-10-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-10.

[Baseball] The New York Mets will make it to The World Series in 2019 ( 10% confidence )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-09.

The Red Sox will win the world series. ( 75% confidence )

Created by williamsmithpennstate on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-10-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-09.

[Fighting] Robert Whittaker to fight Israel Adesanya in 2019 ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-08.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2019 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-08.

Statistics

Judged Predictions