Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-11-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2018 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-11-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for September 2019 to exceed 50% ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-11-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to not be a member of the European Union ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “Brexit with a deal” to have happened ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Article 50 to have been extended ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to have been held ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to be formally announced ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to have held a general election ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics] Martial law to be declared in at least part of Hong Kong by October 2019 EOM ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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Mauricio Macri is re-elected President of Argentina ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 190 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 180 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 170 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Trap ( 2% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] soO ( 3% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Classic ( 4% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Rogue ( 8% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Reynor ( 12% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Maru ( 18% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Serral ( 47% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Dark ( 6% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-01.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-01.
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There will be a new iPhone in 2019 that uses a USB-C connector instead of Lightning ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on, or by, 31 October ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in October for which data are published ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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Within three years, Open Phil makes a grant to an animal advocacy org to support consumer-side intervention(s). ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-31; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31.
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Mauricio Macri will be re-elected president of Argentina. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Argentine_general_election ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2019-07-25; known on 2019-11-25; judged wrong by Pablo on 2019-10-29.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] > 40 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-28.
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[Politics] Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to officially run for president of Argentina in 2019 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-28.
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[SC2] Reynor makes it out of Group C ( 62% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] herO makes it out of Group C ( 52% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] HeRoMaRinE makes it out of Group C ( 28% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Classic makes it out of Group C ( 58% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Serral makes it out of Group B ( 95% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Stats makes it out of Group B ( 40% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] TIME makes it out of Group B ( 5% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.