Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
I won't work somewhere where I have to wear something more fancy than jeans in the next 5 years. (Jason said he thinks I will) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-03; known on 2019-12-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-12-03.
-
[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-12-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-03.
-
[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
-
[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
-
[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
-
[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
-
[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
-
[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
-
[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in November for which data are published ( 55% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
-
I will finish reading HPMOR by 2022 ( 33% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-26.
-
Fewer small satellites (<500kg) launched in 2018 than 2017. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-14; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-11-25.
-
[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for October 2019 to exceed 110 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-11-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-22.
-
In ten days, we will still live on the farm. ( 100% confidence )
Created by MatrixJedi on 2019-11-11; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by MatrixJedi on 2019-11-21.
-
Scott Galloway: Investigative journalism pieces documenting malfeasance at We within 30 days ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2019-10-22; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-11-21.
-
Scott Galloway: SEC, state AG or other regulatory body investigations into We within 60 days ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-11-21.
-
[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 3 or fewer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 24% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the fifth Democratic primary debate (November 2019) ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-26; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-21.
-
I will own some cryptocurrency before 2027 (know the private key) ( 36% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2027-01-01; judged right by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-19.
-
I will learn about predictions ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tanya_21@hotmail.com on 2019-11-18; known on 2019-11-17; judged right by Tanya_21@hotmail.com on 2019-11-18.
-
Antonio Costa's government won't survive its entire term ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoaoEira on 2015-12-19; known on 2019-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-16.
-
The Guardian newspaper's obsession with sex robots will continue for the next two years at least. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-10-03; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-11-15.
-
[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include more Chinese companies than American ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
-
[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list Walmart as the largest company in the world ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
-
[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list at least 5 Chinese companies in the top 10 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
-
[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include any company not from Europe, the United States, Japan, or China in the top 10 ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
-
[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include any company not from Europe, the United States, Japan, or China in the top 10 ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
-
[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list at least 5 American companies in the top 10 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
-
[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 40 “newcomers” ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
-
[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 1 “newcomer” in the top 100 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
-
[Baseball] The New York Mets will win the World Series in 2019 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-30; judged wrong by rei5025 on 2019-11-11.
-
Gmail will still exist in five years, in contrast to Mike Elgan's prediction. http://www.computerworld.com/article/2838775/why-google-wants-to-replace-gmail.html ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-31; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-09.
-
There will be a shooting at a showing of Joker. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2019-10-04; known on 2019-11-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-09.
-
James Cameron is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-01; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2019-11-08.
-
Michael Bay is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-11-06; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2019-11-08.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.