PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
Same-sex marriage to be legalized in at least one more EU member in 2019. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
BTC will end 2019 higher than it started (priced in USD). ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by bshih on 2019-02-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by bshih on 2019-12-31.
[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 2 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 3+ ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
South Korea to sign a peace treaty with North Korea in 2019. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro) ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
Personal: I still actively use Facebook and follow friends ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
A Democratic House will impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-11; known on 2020-11-10; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
“By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion ( 25% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
By the year 2020, the band Paradise Fears will consistently receive over 1 million views on every video they upload. ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <85 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <80 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive ( 4% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <95 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <100 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive ( 1% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative ( 15% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive ( 15% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 10% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <90 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
Personal: I still read reddit frequently ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
[Personal – my weight in kg is] <75 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
Energy efficiency: T&D losses from the 22 % in 2015 to 15% by 2019 — Power Ministry Bharat ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
Top 10 by market cap coins on CMC will have more than one stable coin ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nve on 2018-12-29; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
A single Falcon 9 Block 5 core will launch twice within 24 hours during 2019. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-15; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
SPY return positive in year 2019 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
Fed cut rate at least 50bps by end of 2019 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
$AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by objclone on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
A single Block 5 Falcon 9 booster will launch 10 times during 2019. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-18; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
Domestic per capita water use in the US will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
Hendo Hoverboards indeed delivers working hoverboards by the end of the year 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by orthonormal on 2014-11-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
US health-care expenditure >=$6 trillion in 2018 —orthonormal ( 39% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
US health-care expenditure <=$4 trillion in 2018 —orthonormal ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
US health-care expenditure is less than or equal to $5 trillion in 2018. —orthonormal ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
US-China Trade War will NOT end in 2019. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by zilong on 2019-06-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by zilong on 2019-12-31.
'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 20% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-31.
“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
Inflation rate in june 2017 higher than june 2016 in South Africa. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
Unemployment rate in 2017 worse than 2016 in South Africa ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
“Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.