PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Frente Amplio will win in the 2019 Uruguayan general elections. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.

Russia to be at war or to have common media reports of many troops engaging in combat in a European country other than Ukraine by the end of 2018. ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.

1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2019 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2019-12-30; judged wrong by icrbow on 2019-12-30.

India's GDP in PPP will be roughly half that of the EU or USA in 2020. —Shane Legg ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.

The Brexit Party to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.

Zhongguo(中国) will be world's largest economy in nominal(USD, current prices) terms by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.

Solaren delivers 200MW to california grid at any point from Space Based Solar ( 37% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.

The Independent Group (TIG), or its successor party, to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-08; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.

Apple will discontinue the 13" Macbook Pro model that lacks the touchbar. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by quanticle on 2019-12-29.

Rian Johnson’s new Star Wars trilogy takes place before the Prequel Trilogy. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gallerdude on 2017-12-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

Brazil's GDP will be above its 2014 level in 2018. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

Bryce Harper will sign a contract with minimum length of 10 years. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-20; known on 2019-02-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

[Baseball] The New York Mets will make the playoffs in 2019 ( 60% confidence )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

C9 will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

Fnatic will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

Griffin will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 40% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

J-Team will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 30% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

Gigabyte Marines will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

SKT will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 65% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

RNG will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 45% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

Team Liquid will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

IG will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

AHQ will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 10% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

G2 will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

FunPlus Phoenix will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 90% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

The NDA will win the India's 2019 General Elections ( 86% confidence )

Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

By 2019, for the first time in history, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) will not account for a majority of worldwide defence expenditure. It accounted for almost two-thirds of global spending as recently as 2010,” said IHS. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2019-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

The Brexit Party to win the most seats in the next UK General Election ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-06-02; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-25.

Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-01.

Dave Peterson bought me an electric shaver for Christmas. ( 60% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2019-12-15; known on 2019-12-28; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-12-23.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for November 2019 to exceed 110 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-12-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.

[Fighting] Rico Verhoeven to beat Badr Hari in their December 2019 fight ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-12-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.

[Fighting] Rico Verhoeven and Badr Hari to fight as scheduled on 2019-12-21 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-12-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.

No WeWork IPO in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-16; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-12-23.

The Keyholder will win the Heaven or Hell prestige class contest on Giants in the Playground ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-08-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-22.

[Fighting] Colby Covington to have a title fight in 2019 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-20.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )