Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2018 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] under $40 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for August 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-10-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 26,000 and 30,000 ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Commodities] Palladium price at end of September 2019 to be lower than 1510 USD per troy ounce ( 58% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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Kim Jong Un to visit Seoul by 2019-10-01 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-28; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Politics] Singapore to hold general election by 3Q19 EOQ ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 3Q19 EOQ ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through September EOM ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in September for which data are published ( 58% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q3 EOQ ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 5] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 5] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 5] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 3] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 20% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 2] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 1] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 40% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT C will] complete a cost-effectiveness analysis by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 99% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] work leading to the creation (if not completion) of an outside study by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 15% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] supplemental work started in 2018 by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 20% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] the next steps by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 95% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] the ITN framework by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [38, 40] ( 2% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [35, 40] ( 10% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [32, 40] ( 20% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [28, 40] ( 30% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [24, 40] ( 40% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [20, 40] ( 50% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [16, 40] ( 65% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [12, 40] ( 80% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [8, 40] ( 90% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Less than 4h30m ( 2% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h30m and 4h45m ( 8% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h45m and 5h00m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h00m and 5h15m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h15m and 5h30m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h30m and 5h45m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h45m and 6h00m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 6h00m and 6h15m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] More than 6h15m ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 7 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 6 ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 5 ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.