The Majorana Demonstrator or its successor experiment will find 5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2020. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.

A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.

By 2020, at least 25% of colleges in the US in 2015 will be bankrupt or otherwise defunct. ( 11% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

By 2020, marijuana will be widely used in the US to treat neurodenerative diseases and and multiple new drugs based on cannabis research will have been patented or in least final stages of FDA approval. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

A mundane, accepted explanation for the apparent imaginary mass of neutrinos will be found by 2020 that does not involve the neutrinos actually having imaginary mass (e.g. some form of systematic error). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Twin prime conjecture solved by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Tentative announcements of the discovery of intelligent life in other solar systems will appear in peer reviewed journals by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

“By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2020-01-01; 99.8% —David Dalrymple ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Automated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. —Ray Kurzweil ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

'[I] believe that the answer to the dark matter question will be found within a decade.' —John Ellis ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

'A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed “Project Spaceguard,” to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google/Alphabet/Alphabet subsidiary employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.

Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.

An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.

GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.

By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.

Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by dchristie on 2020-01-01.

Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.

I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2020 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.

I will move before 2020 ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.

zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2020 ( 19% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.

Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) will escape from prison again before 2020 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.