Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Sheffield is 50 miles away from Bristol. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-02; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-02.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution will hinge on truly convincing Voldemort to let Harry out of the box (i.e. no “brute force” transfiguration solutions where talking is just a distraction) ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution involves time travel ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by dain on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR, Ch. 114] The true solution relies on Partial Transfiguration ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] Conditional on EY accepting a viable fan solution, it will be different to what will actually happen in the story. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by dain on 2015-03-03.
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EY accepts at least one answer for the Final Exam, causing the story to continue to chapter 121. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-04; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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I will have completed the first draft of my novel by June 7, 2015, my 58th birthday. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-06-07; judged wrong by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2015-06-08.
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I will be living in the Bay Area on or before July 1st of 2015, meaning I will have spent or am in the process of spending at least 8 weeks there. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-07-01.
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Congress passes a substantial repeal of Obamacare in the next 5 years ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-17.
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Either Scott Walker or Jeb Bush win the GOP nomination ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-01; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Bill will get hit by a train in it's a beautiful day. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-01; known on 2017-05-26; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-01.
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HPMoR: By end of story, it will be revealed that the events at the end of Chapter 113 were just a setup for Harry to be seen defeating Voldemort. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-01; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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Eliezer will accept an answer involving Harry secretly partially transfiguring something while his wand is pointed at the ground in such a way that Voldemort doesn't notice until too late. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05.
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The cat will throw up on Monday. ( 2% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-03.
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HPMoR: Harry dies at some point before the end of the story (including if said death is temporary). ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: In chapter 113, there is a fight between Voldemort and HJPEV in which Voldemort deliberately fights less well than they are capable of. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-02-28.
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The first full body transplantation of a human will have been successfully done before 2045. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-26; known on 2045-01-01.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-27; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05.
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Kurt Geiger was born conventional 60 years or more ago (on or before 26th February 1955). ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Kurt Geiger was born conventional 50 years or more ago (on or before 26th February 1965). ( 68% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Naruto ended at chapter 700 (as opposed to 500, 600, 800, etc.) ( 75% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Kano conventionally 30 years old or more ( 57% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Protein and carbs both give 2 kcal/g to nearest whole number in opening section of Wikipedia Food Energy article ( 61% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Ill Manors won a Mercury Prize (of some sort if applicable) ( 44% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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An Academy Award was awarded for Let It Go ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Jasper Benincasa died at conventional age of 93 or more ( 59% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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My Kickstarter will fail without reaching 50% (https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/synaptitude/thinksuite-brainware-not-software) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-03-25; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-25.
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In 2015 Go will become a supported development language for Android ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alex Willmer on 2015-02-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Alex Willmer on 2016-01-02.
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HPMoR: In chapter 111, Voldemort is lying about the loss of the Horcrux network, conditional on events not being inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2015-03-22.
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HPMoR: In chapter 111, the events depicted are happening inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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My dad did not read the Slate State Codex posts I recommended, by Sunday, even though he said he needed until Sunday to get to them. evidence: - He hadn't read them on Thursday. - I think that he would have called or emailed me after he finished them ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-02-25; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-03-01.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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The 11th floor faucet has been fixed. ( 80% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-25.
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I will get sick sometime in March. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-01.
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We'll get a parking ticket in the next month. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-03-23; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-23.
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Someone will compliment my outfit tomorrow. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-02-25; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-25.
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I have at least 1 cavity. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-22.
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At Wednesday's eye appointment it will be determined that I need a stronger prescription. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-26.
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I will start a website (or blog) on cryonics before September 2015. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-10-24.
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No obvious bugs in code. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-23; known on 2015-02-24; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-23.
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By 2030, same-sex marriage will be legal everywhere in the US. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-02-23; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by alexneptune on 2016-03-01.
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The San Diego Chargers will announce before February 2016 that they will leave San Diego for Los Angeles ( 75% confidence )
Created by Radioguy76 on 2015-02-23; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-12.
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I have symptoms of Y before the end of March. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-23; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-16.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-22; known on 2015-02-23; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-22.
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“The power the Dark Lord knows not” is ability to make altruist plans. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HJPEV has access to Voldemort's Horcrux network, due to being sufficiently Tom Riddle. ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-03-03.
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Harry Potter is the Master of Death, in the sense of magically owning all three Deathly Hallows. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07.
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At least one English or Welsh incumbent currently on >10% majority will be unseated at the election. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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It's in that PS episode ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-02-25.
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FMK confirms pre 5 weeks wrt dd ( 15% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20.
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BK does hot chocolate ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-02-25.
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A serves F BK ( 5% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20.
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Emma Watson and Prince Harry publicly confirm they are dating within a week. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-27; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-02-28.
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UMass does not change its policy with regard to admitting Iranian nationals to certain graduate programs before the deadline of this prediction. ( 60% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2015-02-18; known on 2015-02-25; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-18.
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On 1st June the PM is a member of the Labour party ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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T FB ( 80% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-18.
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Ben fixed the Internet. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-02-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17.
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Feb R > 10k ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.
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5k < Feb R =< 10k ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.
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0 < Feb R =< 5k ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.
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Feb R = 0 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.
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The laptop that Mobiquity gives to us will be ours to keep. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-02-18; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-02-20.
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HPMoR: At least two parties at the battle of the Third Floor Corridor were present for reasons OTHER than Quirrel's influence on their actions. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by Faceh on 2015-10-25.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) It will be revealed that HPJEV was under some magical influence that prevented him from perceiving the link between Voldemort and Quirrel. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) there will be a philosophical discussion/debate of the nature of self, identity, and/or continuity of consciousness. This discussion will last LONGER than a single paragraph. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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Before or coinciding with the release of the Apple Watch, Apple will [announce or release an new iPod touch model (however minor the differences)] or [announce the end of the iPod touch line or brand]. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2015-02-16; known on 2016-01-01.
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hpmor- In the last few chapters, Harry will be referred to as the “spare” with Cedric Diggory nearby. ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged wrong by Faceh on 2015-03-15.
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The Emory REU will reject me. ( 80% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2015-04-29.
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The Duluth REU will reject me. ( 60% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2015-02-16.
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Moving ahead ( 100% confidence )
Created by kuttypa on 2015-02-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged unknown by kuttypa on 2015-02-15.
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>20 HBs by the time I wake up tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15.
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>13 HBs by the time I wake up tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15.
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Humboldt Fog will be super popular (written up as super trendy in a mainstream publication) at some point before 2020 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Benquo on 2015-02-14; known on 2020-12-31.
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The T will be down on Monday for at least part of the day. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-14; known on 2015-02-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-16.
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J ran script. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-14; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-14.
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It will be clear by March 25,2015 that the Minsk ceasefire did not hold ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-27.
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The subway will be closed down for at least part of this weekend. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-16; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-14.
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The SMALL REU will reject me. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-14; judged right by azax1 on 2015-03-11.
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Aston Villa will beat/draw against Stoke ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
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Sunderland will beat/draw against West Brom ( 75% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-02-22; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
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I will get into the UNIQ summer school for Maths. ( 10% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will get into the UNIQ summer school for CS. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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There will not be another meteor over Auckland tommorow ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by xplkqlkcassia on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-02-13; judged right by xplkqlkcassia on 2015-02-14.
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Greece will cease to be on the Euro by 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-02-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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P will be there before I arrive. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-11; known on 2015-02-12; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-12.
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V will be there before I arrive. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-11; known on 2015-02-12; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-12.
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Following the next election, at least one newly elected Board member will attempt to disband the Bitcoin Foundation (pass a motion or make a statement to that effect). Election of Cody Wilson is also an automatic “right” judgment. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by learnmethis on 2015-02-11; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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C will send me the files before 6pm today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-11; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-11.
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Labor force participation rate will hit below 62% this decade. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-10.
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The standard unemployment rate will be below 5% by January 2016. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-02-02.
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There will not be a recession in this decade (two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth) in the US. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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>10 HBs by the time I wake up tomorrow. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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By 10am tomorrow I will no longer be locked out of openVPN. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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MIT will be closed Wednesday. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-12; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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I will be enrolled in 3, 4, or 5 classes at the University of Chicago, in the spring quarter of 2015. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-30.
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MIT will be closed on Tuesday. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09; known on 2015-02-11; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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By the end of 2025 speech to text software "will be just below the level of a trained stenographer with something like 80% probability, and “solved” (somewhat above that level in many different languages) with 30% probability. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.
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WPI will announce a cancellation of classes due to weather before noon today. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Taymon on 2015-02-09; known on 2015-02-09; judged wrong by Taymon on 2015-02-09.