Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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The finnish government that is formed after the scheduled elections on 2015 will have exactly 2 parties that each have enough members of parliament to force the government mp number to lower than 100 and the government is formed before midsummer. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-03-27; known on 2015-06-19; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Synaptitude will make it into YC S15 batch. Our application: http://synaptitude.me/blog/our-ycombinator-s15-application/ On average a 3% acceptance rate. ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2015-03-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-04-27.
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Couple of months after Blackrock Mountain release, Hearthstone meta will not be extremely biased towards aggro decks. Added: meaning “noticably less aggro than GvG meta” ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-03-26; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by VoidChronos on 2015-05-26.
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Sam Altman: Current YC Winter 2015 batch worth at least $3b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.
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Sam Altman: Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, Mixpanel, Teespring, Optimizely, Coinbase, Docker, and Weebly to be collectively worth at least $27b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.
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Sam Altman: Uber, Palantir, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and SpaceX to be collectively worth over $200b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.
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Italian Supreme Court in Rome will confirm convictions of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito on charge of killing Meredith Kercher. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by komponisto on 2015-03-25; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by komponisto on 2015-03-28.
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I remember my starter for the debating meal ( 85% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-24; known on 2015-03-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-24.
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China's Real GDP Growth between 2015-1017 will be below the United State's. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2015-03-24; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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I tidy my room and send that e-mail in the next 24.25 hours ( 51% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-23; known on 2015-03-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-25.
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I will get my favourite seat on the bus ( 55% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23; known on 2015-03-23; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23.
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I will have a Facebook message ( 25% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23; known on 2015-03-23; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23.
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Rainfall in 2020 will be at least 49% of historic levels in California. (Using the standard June to July year) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-23; known on 2020-07-25.
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By March 22, 2035, at least one currently OECD country will have at least 20% of all cars be self-driving. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-22; known on 2035-03-22.
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I go to the Debating meal on 24/03/15 ( 67% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-24.
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I go to the Mark Drama on 23/03/15 ( 80% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-23; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23.
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The Coop was open ( 55% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-22; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22.
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The garlic in Sainsbury's was where I thought it was ( 60% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-22; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22.
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The Crowfall kickstarter will reach its “Pack Animal For Everyone” stretch goal of 14,500 backers ( 40% confidence )
Created by Rowan93 on 2015-03-21; known on 2015-03-26; judged right by davidmanheim on 2015-03-29.
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The Crowfall kickstarter will reach its “Mounts & Caravans” $1.3 million stretch goal ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rowan93 on 2015-03-21; known on 2015-03-26; judged right by Rowan93 on 2015-03-22.
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Jacquelyn K. will Skype me sometime in the next 3 weeks (or will try to do so, but will be constrained by factors which are my responsibility). ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-21; known on 2015-04-10; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-04-10.
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I see J at P ( 78% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-20; known on 2015-03-21; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-21.
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V fixed the bug. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-19; known on 2015-03-20; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-19.
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Next US recession to be 66% or less than the drop in GDP of the great recession, to take place no earlier than 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nazgul76 on 2015-03-18; known on 2025-03-18.
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Starbucks CEO to make an apology for his Race Relations idea or something one of his employees says or does within 1 year. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by nazgul76 on 2015-03-17; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-22.
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They'll hire me. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ThetaAurigae on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by ThetaAurigae on 2015-04-08.
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S will respond. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-27; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-21.
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'Today', I do gym and track stuff then my first BK of the day ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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I do gym and track stuff 'today' ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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I go to RDT birthday pre-drinks ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-28; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-28.
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Meet up with G on that day ( 45% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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I'll catch that train ( 10% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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DMT read first 99 chapters of HPMoR or said they had caught it up ( 28% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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One or t'other sees both BKB's in/around P ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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He doesn't take any of that lecture, conditional on eclipse roughly as described, as agreed by prediction setters ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22.
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F accepts L Friend Request by the midnight ending Sunday, conditional on it being sent as claimed ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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No Jedi Mind Tricks songs (as featured or main artist) on Sunfly Karaoke ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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No Jedi Mind Tricks songs (as main artist) on Sunfly Karaoke website ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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It was from that person ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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CJ or HM or JB at P ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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R does 5th ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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B-S I illegal under UK law conditional on agreement in judging this of prediction setters ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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BK see R & T ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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H7N9 will become pandemic by March 15, 2020. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-15; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-03-15.
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HPMOR Chapter 122 will have over 18,000 words. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Zebranky on 2015-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Zebranky on 2015-03-14.
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“Hermione Granger” will not appear in the title of Chapter 122 of HPMOR. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Zebranky on 2015-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Zebranky on 2015-03-14.
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A party not in the government is whipped to back or abstain on the first Queens Speech of next parliament ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be greater than 50 people. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-15.
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The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be between 35 and 50 people. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-15.
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31 or more people will attend the SF EA dinner conspiracy event (https://www.facebook.com/events/759621220789885/) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-20; judged right by dusk on 2015-04-05.
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Dolfi can wash clothes correctly. ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-12; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-01-03.
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In HPMOR, Bartemus Crouch Sr. will be revealed as having covered up Crouch Jr.'s membership in the Death Eaters, or otherwise shielding him from the consequences in some way, in direct opposition to his reputation as a stalwart upholder of the law. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnWittle on 2015-03-12; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Between 5 and 20 people will attend the HP:MoR wrap party in Chicago. (Prediction made on March 4th) ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-10; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-14.
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World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2025-02-02.
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By March 10, 2035, "the sum of (a) those who own cars and use them at least once a week (b) those who use a ride-sharing program with self-driving cars at least once a week, not counting twice those who do both will be less than 40% of the U.S. populatio ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2035-03-10.
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Unique games conjecture resolved by 2050. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2050-01-01.
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Unipäiväkirja huomenna ( 70% confidence )
Created by 19283123 on 2015-03-09; known on 2015-03-10.
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Scott Aaronson will reply to at least one of my questions via email or mention it in a blogpost by July 1. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-09; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10.
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X will not exist anymore as of 1st September 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Robert on 2015-03-08; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Robert on 2015-07-23.
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The answer I just wrote on Quora will get more than 100 upvotes by the end of the month. ( 4% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-08; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-04-01.
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In 2015, China's GDP growth will be equal to or less than 5~%, and will not meet Li Keqiang's stated goal of 7% ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2015-03-07; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-19.
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Israeli Election: Zionist Union will get more votes than Likud ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Rigulel on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-03-18; judged wrong by Rigulel on 2015-03-18.
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Israeli Election: Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next prime minister ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Rigulel on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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I will pass both an oral examination in comprehension of the german language, and the standard advanced mathematics written exam (college level). The direct consequences of failing either of these exams is a sum of approximately 1,250 USD ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by FourFire on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by FourFire on 2015-05-31.
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I see S at P ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-06; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-10.
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By 2035 a superconductor with a critical temperature of at least 200 K will be discovered. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-06; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21.
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FMK will claim that she has never smoked in her life ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06; known on 2015-03-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.
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ST Enterprise: In S3.09, the horse they take on loan at the start of the episode dies. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-05-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-03-05.
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Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to “climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest”. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2051-01-01.
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Roberts votes with the majority on King v Burwell ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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Bruce Lee died at conventional age thirty-one ( 15% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Bruce Lee died at conventional age thirty ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Bruce Lee died at conventional age 29, 30, or 31 ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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I will test the appropriate n-rep maxima for all the Ice Cream exercises I can do this for at the gym by 11:00 (in about six hours) ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-10.
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University was founded in or after 1960 ( 90% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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I will get my full deposit back from my current landlord ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-08-16.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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As was on Songs in the Key of Life ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Amaterasu, Susasnoo, Tsukuyomi siblings ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Neji swastika is left-facing ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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The swastika on Ichigo's original bankai is opposite-facing to the Nazi one, conditional on orientation not seeming obviously inconsistent when checking ( 64% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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A video is uploaded to /user/SenpaiKush which has upload date lying in March 2015 ( 56% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-22.
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(Abraham Lincoln born in then-Illinois) or (Abraham Lincoln born in place in now-Illinois) ( 65% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Stevie Wonder born in New York state ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will attempt to stay in office through extra-legal means past her term in office. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-10.
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Big Mac + medium fries + medium diet coke has <1000 kcal conditional on figure given on UK website ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Conditional on figure being given on UK website, 200 or less calories in medium Maccy D's fries ( 30% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Gordon Brown has unambiguously brown eyes ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05.
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David Cameron has unambiguously brown eyes ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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There's a dance sequence in the Savoy Ballroom in that Malcolm X film, conditional on that film existing as I think it does ( 83% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Obama six foot or taller ( 66% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Tom Odell between 27 and 33 conventional years of age inclusive ( 43% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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That FB notification is that ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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King v. Burwell is decided for the government. ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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Nuclear war in 25 years. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16.
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HPMoR: Snape is present in Ch 114. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-03-03; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Chri on 2015-03-17.
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HPMoR: Mr White is Lucius Malfoy, conditional on the identity of Mr White or Lucius Malfoy at the meeting being confirmed, or Lucius not being present at the meeting being confirmed. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-03; known on 2015-03-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-03-12.
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Informal “Du” will be the most common form of address in everyday business transactions in Germany by 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jasticE on 2015-03-03; known on 2050-01-01.