PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The first train when I'm next travelling back from Canada Water will go straight where I want it to go ( 45% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-21.

I will not arrive at Victoria at or before 21:45 ( 70% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-21.

I will end up showering for longer than 30 minutes. ( 90% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-20.

I will get my favourite seat on the bus ( 62% confidence )

Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-20; judged wrong by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-20.

By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2030-01-01.

I will favour hedonistic to preference utilitarianism at the end of the year ( 90% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.

I will get someone's number through meeting them in a bookshop before I leave London ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-14.

I will go out when I get back on Monday ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-21.

By Wednesday my piece on the Great Filter on Less Wrong will be at at least +12 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-22; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22.

The Warriors won't win it all ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-06-19; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.

The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.

I will enjoy gymnastics today ( 70% confidence )

Created by FoxyFox21 on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by FoxyFox21 on 2015-04-19.

Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.

Kyrgyzstan will experience a change in ruling party or civil unrest before 2017. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

I will have a date in the next two weeks ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by dmai9600@yahoo.com on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-05-02.

I will get over 100 rupees in this BGO game. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.

I will die at least once in this BGO game. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

I will get a double dice roll at least once in this BGO game. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.

We will win this BGO game. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

I will accidentally kill Rory in this BGO game… ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.

Dad will be in when I wake up ( 33% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

My mussel linguine will taste good ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

Everyone will have awoken by the time I get out of bed tomorrow ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

I will end up at D's house before I leave London ( 40% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.

I will end up sleeping at A, B, and C's house before leaving London ( 10% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.

A will make a move on me before I leave London this year ( 15% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.

Tesla motors' next product release will be a home battery ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OisinMoran on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by OisinMoran on 2015-05-01.

Someone will ask about packing tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-20.

The legal status of marijuana (including medical) in the UK will undergo a substantial change ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.

I will find deontology convincing as a moral theory at the end of the year. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-02.

The next person I have sex with will be a stranger or an acquaintance (defined in terms of speaking and/or seeing them frequently, if it is not obvious based on closeness) rather than a friend. ( 75% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-16.

My diet will still be vegan or bivalvegan at the end of this year ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.

I will still self-identify as an effective altruist at the end of this year ( 90% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.

I will become convinced enough by neoreactionary arguments that, at the end of the year, it would not be clearly mistaken for someone to label me a 'neoreactionary', regardless of whether I personally self-identify as one. ( 5% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.

I will receive a message in the next hour stating how someone is happy to be friends with me. ( 5% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-18.

CC goes into river island next ( 60% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-18.

I will be happy with the amount of revision I've done today ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-18.

I will start blogging after exams ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-17.

I'll get off this website and actually do my revision (I'll close down Facebook, too) within the next 5 minutes. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Hurzek on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by Hurzek on 2015-04-18.

I'll read something insightful Foucalt has wrote in the next 3 hours of revising him. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Hurzek on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by Hurzek on 2015-04-18.

I'll get into an American University next year. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Hurzek on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-09-16.

I will have a text from Felix when I check my phone ( 40% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-18.

I will finish all of my abnormal Psychology notes by the end of the day. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Hurzek on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by Hurzek on 2015-04-18.

My cooking tonight will involve udon noodles ( 40% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-18.

I will vote Lib Dem in the election ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-19.

I will become sympathetic to mainstream analytic metaphysics by the end of the year ( 2% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.

If I use mussels tonight, I will successfully incorporate them into a good tasting meal ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

Arsenal will beat Reading ( 70% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-18.

The winner of the 2015 ImageNet challenge will have a error rate between 2-3%. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-09-15.

At least one US Presidential candidate who is major enough to appear in one of the major Presidential debates will mention the growth of AI sometime before the Presidential election. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.

By the end of 2015, either a presidential candidate, a member of congress, or Obama, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential crisis. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.

By April 17, 2020, scientific consensus will still not accept to any substantial degree Paramahamsa Tewari's proposed “over-unity” device. ( 99% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-18; known on 2020-04-17; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-17.

Someone will mention packing up tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-18.

I will finish ahead of Nathan in this game of BGO (excluding premature departure) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-17.

Someone will leave this game ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-17.

Nathan will not win this game of BGO ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.

Grizzlies beat the Blazers ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-30.

Spurs beat the Clippers ( 75% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-04.

Rockets beat the Mavs ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-29.

Warriors beat the Pelicans ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-26.

Wizards beat the Raptors ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-27.

I will encounter a girl, whom I genuinely want to be with and we'll date and be all cute and whatnot. (by the end of this year). ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.

Bulls beat the Bucks ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-01.

Cavs beat the Celtics ( 98% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-26.

Hawks beat the Nets ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-02.

I will die at least once in this BGO game. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17.

At least one person will leave in this BGO game ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.

CBAB doesn't respond on Facebook by the end of the day ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-17.

I will meet up with Felix in London prior to exams ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-01.

My dad and sisters will be back before 4 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-17.

My dad will ask if I slept well ( 70% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-17.

I will wake up before 12 tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.

I will wake up before 1 tomorrow ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.

I will not find this podcast very useful (in terms of giving me new, relevant information) ( 60% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.

I will not feed in my next league game. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.

I will win this game of checkers. ( 54% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.

I can do 20 sit ups in 30 seconds ( 70% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-16.

I will fall asleep on the Megabus journey back to London ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-22.

“No Award” takes at least one Hugo category this year. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-08-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-23.

“No Award” sweeps the Hugos this year. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-08-30; judged right by kuudes on 2015-08-23.

Hillary Clinton chooses Sherrod Brown as running mate. ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.

Hillary chooses running mate from Ohio, Colorado, Florida, or Virginia. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.

I will be over this by May 1st ( 80% confidence )

Created by dmai9600@yahoo.com on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-05-01.

My sisters will be home before 4 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-16.

I will lose my lane in this game, even though I counter my opponent. ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.

I will have a negative KDA in my next League of Legends match. ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.

I will win my next League of Legends game. ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.

My 100m was strictly below 12.80s ( 4% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-17.

My 100m was strictly under 15s ( 42% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-17.

F or I sees NB/CBS in da house ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )