PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

Ukip will have five or less seats following the UK general election. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016 ( 10% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
Barack Obama will be President of the United States as of 1st January 2016. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
By midnight on New Year's Eve, I will have fewer than 1000 followers on Twitter ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by roreiy on 2016-03-16.
The next leader of the Democratic Unionist Party will be Edwin Poots ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2017-01-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-03.
The Labour Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
The next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be Ed Miliband ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
The Conservative Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
No party will achieve an overall majority in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as of 1st January 2016 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
David Cameron will still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as of 1st January 2016 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
At the end of the year, AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
At the end of the year, GiveDirectly will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post more than 25 blog posts. ( 15% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post at least 12 blog posts. ( 70% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post at least 5 blog posts. ( 90% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post more than 25 blog posts. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post at least 12 blog posts. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post at least 5 blog posts. ( 95% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-28.
HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.50 ( 15% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.10 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
Hafthor Bjornsson wins 2015 World's Strongest Man. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-23.
In the next book in the Twenty-Sided Sorcererss series It will turn out that there is some connection between Jade and dragons. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30.
At least one country will make producing animal meat products within its borders illegal by 2075 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dvolk on 2015-01-02; known on 2075-01-01.
I will have finished studying classical physics (Langrangian and Hamiltonian) by end 2Q 2015. IE studied and done the exercises from an appropriate text book. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.
I will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by end 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms texts that I choose. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.
I will finish the exercises from “Thermal Physics” by end 1Q 2015 thus completing second year physics. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-04-01.
I have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading. By EOY 2015. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.
Body fat % down to 15% per average of skin caliper method, Barry Sears “Enter the Zone” metric method, and electronic scales method by end of 2015. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.
Weight down to 65 kg by end 2Q 2015. Currently 69.2 kg down from 82 kg. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.
Weight down to 67 kg by end 1Q 2015. Currently 69.2 kg down from 82kg. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-04-01.
I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2015. This means finishing testing the code, optimizing, getting up to date data, and setting up the actual trading. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.
I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 1Q 2015. This means finishing testing the code, optimizing, getting up to date data, and setting up the actual trading. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-04-01.
Brent crude trades below $20 at some point in 2015 ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
By 2025, autism rates in the US will surpass 50% for children. ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-30; known on 2026-01-01.
The rehearsal on Friday will go ahead ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-30; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-03.
I'll be able to stick to my 2015 New Year resolution of 'no potato chips or french fries' till Dec 31, 2015. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by roshni on 2014-12-30; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by roshni on 2016-01-15.
I get the job at Google ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-29; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-01-30.
I get the Khan Academy Internship ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-29; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-01-30.
Italian ferry death total to reach at least 15 by January 3rd ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-03.
Man City will beat/draw against Sunderland ( 65% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.
Man U will beat/draw against Stoke ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.
I will have completed the PC by Wednesday ( 30% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-28; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.
I will have completed level 20 on the PC by Wednesday ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-28; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.
Oculus will release another development kit VR headset, consumer VR headset, or an alpha/beta consumer VR headset before 2016 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.
Spurs will beat/draw against Rockets ( 55% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27; known on 2014-12-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29.
Pistons will beat/draw against Cavaliers ( 53% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27; known on 2014-12-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29.
Sunderland will beat/draw against Aston Villa ( 65% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27; known on 2014-12-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29.
Man City will beat/draw against Burnley ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27; known on 2014-12-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29.
Chelsea will beat/draw against Southampton ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27; known on 2014-12-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29.
Man U will beat/draw against Tottenham ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27; known on 2014-12-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29.
A mundane, accepted explanation for the apparent imaginary mass of neutrinos will be found by 2020 that does not involve the neutrinos actually having imaginary mass (e.g. some form of systematic error). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
Consensus will be that electron neutrinos have imaginary mass 2025. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27; known on 2025-01-16.
Skimmable Videos makes the front page of HN ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-26; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-26.
A will complete BM goal without derail under rules dated 2014-12-26. ( 60% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-12-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by adri on 2014-12-29.
A will not further modify the deadline rules of BM. ( 70% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-12-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adri on 2014-12-29.
I will finish Antichamber before 2015-02-01 ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-25; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-02-01.
College Inside View will succeed ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-25; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-25.
The Spurs, Thunder or Cavs will win the championship. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-25; known on 2015-06-20; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
By 2045, at least one of the following will occur: group isomorphism in P^factoring/poly, integer factoring in P^GI/poly, group isomorpism in BQP. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-25; known on 2045-01-01.
Bulls will beat/draw against Lakers ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-24; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.
Heat will beat/draw against Cavaliers ( 65% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-24; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.
Thunder will beat/draw against Spurs ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-24; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.
The Wizards will beat/draw against the Knicks ( 53% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-24; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.
I will be able to intentionally induce another lucid dream within the next two nights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by brightcloud on 2014-12-23; known on 2014-12-26; judged wrong by brightcloud on 2014-12-26.
I will make my return flight from San Francisco. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by brightcloud on 2014-12-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-25.
I will not receive my college grades in the mail before I return from my vacation in 2015. ( 90% confidence )

Created by brightcloud on 2014-12-23; known on 2015-01-02.
Liverpool will beat/draw against Burnley ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21; known on 2014-12-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.
Tottenham will beat/draw against Leicester City ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21; known on 2014-12-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.
Everton will beat/draw against Stoke City ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21; known on 2014-12-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.
Sunderland will beat/draw against Hull City ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21; known on 2014-12-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.
Man City will beat/draw against West Brom ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21; known on 2014-12-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.
Chelsea will beat/draw against West Ham ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21; known on 2014-12-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.
General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016 ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-20; known on 2016-01-01.
Busy beaver number for 6 found by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-20; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
u(1/2)<=.15 by 2045. Here mean u(1/2) in the Lindelof hypothesis. ( 95% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2045-01-01.
A general factoring algorithm better than the number field sieve by 2035 ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2035-01-01.
At least one substantial improvement on the finite group isomorphism problem will occur before 2035. ( 95% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2035-01-01.
By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
A will write BA project with HH. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by adri on 2014-12-18; known on 2015-02-06; judged wrong by adri on 2015-02-07.
The Queen will formally abdicate this year ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
DAX will be above 10000 on Jan 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Chri on 2014-12-18; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-01-15.
DAX will stay above 9000pts until Mar 1, 2015 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Chri on 2014-12-18; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by Chri on 2015-03-01.
Everyone will turn next up to the next rehearsal ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-17; known on 2014-12-18; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-18.
I will get through to the next round of the BIO ( 20% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-17; known on 2014-12-19; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-05.
Zero humans will have been in orbit around another planet by 2050 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2050-01-01.
Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100 ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2100-01-01.
I will score above 70 on the BIO ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16; known on 2014-12-18; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-05.
I will score above 60 on the BIO ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16; known on 2014-12-18; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-05.
Brent crude above $100/barrel at the beginning of 2016. (http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx) ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2014-12-15; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-03.
West Ham will beat/draw against Leicester City ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-15; known on 2014-12-21; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21.
Man City will beat/draw against Crystal Palace ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-15; known on 2014-12-21; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21.
At least one of my calculus students will complain to me about their final grade by January 5th ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20.
Phthalate exposure in utero link to reduced intelligence to be confirmed/replicated by at least two other studies by January 1, 2024 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-15; known on 2024-01-01.
Jake will go to Ohio State. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-26.
R will be at Monday's rehearsal ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.
I will spend the full 3 hours on the BIO ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14; known on 2014-12-17; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.