Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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QPR will beat Chelsea ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-13.
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Chelsea will beat QPR ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-04-12; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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The QPR-Chelsea match will end in a draw ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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I will have a matrixeqtl result for the Myers data by tomorrow night. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-13; judged wrong by Porejide on 2015-04-13.
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My hair will be complimented next time I go clubbing ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-05-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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I will complete all revision tasks to my satisfaction tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-12-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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We will “win” Escape the Room tonight. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by Porejide on 2015-04-12.
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My next Facebook notification will be from a group ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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The next (new) person I have sex with will not be someone I meet in a pub or a club ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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The Facebook message will be from Kat ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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The Facebook message will be from Ryan ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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The Facebook message will be from Nathan ( 80% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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I will stay in tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-12-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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I will not run into Kat tomorrow ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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I will see Ryan tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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I will be on time to meet Nathan tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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The shower will be fixed by tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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Friend A will end up getting with Friend B by the end of August ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-10; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-18.
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Jacquelyn K. will Skype me sometime in the next 3 weeks (or will try to do so, but will be constrained by factors which are my responsibility). ( 10% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-10; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-05-01.
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I will have at least two more papers submitted by June 25, 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-09; known on 2015-06-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25.
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By the August 1st /r/TheButton button will expire ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-09; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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The next president elect will be a member of the democratic party. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Schizophrenia will popularly be considered a part of the Autism spectrum, supporting imprinted brain theory. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2035-04-09.
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There will be a new DSM version released by 2020, replacing the current DSM-V. Can be a revision (i.e., DSM-V TR) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2020-01-01.
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Within 50 years lesions or similar cerebral damaging will be discovered for Homo Sapiens as a result of recreational doses of NMDA antagonists. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2065-04-09.
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The mitten will still be there on my next run. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-08; known on 2015-04-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-08.
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Rand Paul to win the Republican party nomination for President. ( 10% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-08; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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I will be not be in a formal, romantic relationship (open relationships included) throughout 2015 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-04-19.
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Molly will be with Felix when I arrive ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-09-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-09.
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I will meet Felix before 8 o'clock tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-09-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-09.
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In Alice Grove, the Night Walker will be activated in some way. Arbitary time limit chosen. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Lambert on 2015-04-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by enoch on 2020-01-03.
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I will be able to memorize a shuffled deck of cards (Doppelkopf deck, 48 cards) in less then 5min by the end of May. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-28.
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Wisconsin will beat Duke ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-04-07; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-07.
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My achilles will be better (able to run) within 7 more weeks. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-05-25; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-18.
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My achilles will be better (enough for me to start running) within 2 more weeks. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-20.
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By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-06; known on 2045-01-03.
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will.i.am feat. Cody Wise – It's My Birthday in Sunfly karaoke website catalogue ( 75% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-04-06; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-06.
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She says there isn't a KFC in Winchester ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-05; known on 2015-04-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-05.
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McDonald's open at 5AM today ( 75% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-04; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-05.
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There will be 4 people or more (including myself) at the first meeting of the Chicago rationality group. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-06; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-04-06.
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There will be between 6 and 15 people at the first meeting of the Chicago rationality group. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-05; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-04-06.
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I will get out of bed at or before 7:00 tomorrow. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-05; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-04-05.
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Uptown Funk will be on Just Dance 2016 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Adele_L on 2015-04-04; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-09-03.
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The highest HIV prevalence in that table is over 10% ( 48% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-04; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04.
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R says that A of A&P is a wrap up job ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04.
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R says that P of A&P is a wrap up job ( 30% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04.
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Caro Emerald – A Night Like This in the Sunfly karaoke website catalogue ( 54% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-03; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-03.
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Sam will wake up before I leave. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-04; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-04.
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/r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST 4th/5th April ( 60% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-05; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-04-05.
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/r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST 3rd/4th April ( 80% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-04; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-04-04.
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/r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-03; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-04-03.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 3c real, conditional on exactly one real ( 53% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 3b real, conditional on exactly one real ( 27% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 3a real, conditional on exactly one real ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 2c real, conditional on exactly one real ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 2b real, conditional on exactly one real ( 15% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 2a real, conditional on exactly one real ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 1c real, conditional on exactly one real ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 1b real, conditional on exactly one real ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 1a real, conditional on exactly one real ( 30% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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I will achieve a 1:1 at the end of first year university ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-01; known on 2015-07-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-21.
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Based on age, Otis Redding committed suicide (might be hard to judge; prepare to leave Unknown) ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31.
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Based on age, Otis Redding killed by cancer ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31.
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Based on age, Otis Redding was murdered ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31.
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Based on age, Otis Redding died from heart condition ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31.
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Based on age, Otis Redding died in vehicle accident ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31; known on 2015-03-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31.
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I will see Ryan this week ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-04-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-04.
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I will have a credence greater than 50% that the Everett interpretation of QM is true. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-21.
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UKIP will have more seats than the Liberal Democrats following the next UK general election ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 7/10 ( 16% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 6/10 ( 27% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 5/10 ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 4/10 ( 14% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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11 the other ( 15% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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10 the other ( 30% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Nina Simone's birthday was May 11th ( 15% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Nina Simone's birthday was May 10th ( 30% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Yeezus has Metascore >= 90/100, conditional on unique Metacritic figure being given on Wikipedia article ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Anna Wise on Wesley's Theory according to Genius or album's Wikipedia article ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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In the outro of To Pimp A Butterfly, after reciting the final poem, Kendrick says Pac's name exactly three times both on Genius and on that version ( 77% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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2pac died between 30 and 34 conventional years of age, inclusive ( 54% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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2pac died between 25 and 35 conventional years of age ( 86% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Malcolm X was murdered, and died from (in part or otherwise) gunshot wound ( 94% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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CoD: MW3 Survival: That truck on Fallen blows up ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by CCMFPD on 2015-04-16.
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Action Ronson – Baby Blue (ft Chance the Rapper) on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue by 2nd May 2015 or thereabouts (conditional on checking 'thereabouts' as judged by me) ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
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Action Ronson – Baby Blue (ft Chance the Rapper) on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue now ( 19% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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No Church in the Wild on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue ( 63% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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They catch the bus ( 84% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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R has been told by 05:00 'Friday' he's the M K person ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-16.
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R does M K 26th ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-16.
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I take it back to the house ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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It's now between 23:15 and 23:45 on my phone ( 58% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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In the first karaoke artist book I check, there will be no Mumford & Sons tracks in the obvious place ( 86% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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I see S at P ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by EagleEye on 2015-04-16.
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7 mins to get there as measured by first of touching CC or F or getting to top of those stairs by 7m55s ( 32% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Paul Lansky is alive ( 57% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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At least one major crime will be live streamed through Periscope or Meerkat (or whatever the app of the day is) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cocoflunchy on 2015-03-29; known on 2017-03-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-16.
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Saudis will cut oil production sometime in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-28; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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The TV show “The Walking Dead” will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-28; known on 2025-01-01.