Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Dr Bob says: If you invest at Apple in June of 2014 right after the split at roughly $90/share you will turn a profit provided you sell by Dec 31 2014 ( 60% confidence )
Created by kjaques on 2014-06-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kjaques on 2015-01-01.
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Brayden's gift is edible ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by yaliceme on 2014-06-02; known on 2014-06-04; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2014-06-04.
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Lexi will finish an episode of Night Vale by the end of today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-06-02; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-01.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from now until the fall equinox. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-09-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-02.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from now until the fall equinox. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-09-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01.
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I will live through the end of sophomore year. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-31; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-30.
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I will get Bastion today. ( 92% confidence )
Created by isaacjw on 2014-05-30; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by isaacjw on 2014-05-30.
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The sun will come out tomorrow. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-30; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-30.
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I will tech for the choir concert tomorrow night. ( 80% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-29; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-31.
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The 2016 Olympics will be in Rio ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-05-29; known on 2016-08-29; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-06.
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I will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, completing the race before the cut-off time. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2014-05-29; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by waveman on 2015-06-01.
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I will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, running a time of less than 2 hours. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2014-05-29; known on 2015-05-17; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-06-01.
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I will pass advanced on the algebra sol. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-06-07; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-30.
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The Reading Rainbow Kickstarter will reach its goal in 24 hours. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-05-29; judged right by alecbrooks on 2014-05-29.
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The Reading Rainbow Kickstarter will reach its goal. ( 90% confidence )
Created by alecbrooks on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by alecbrooks on 2014-05-29.
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The USA's labour force participation rate will not increase in May. ( 65% confidence )
Created by wraith on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-06-07; judged right by wraith on 2014-06-07.
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Homestuck will update by the end of this year. ( 78% confidence )
Created by wraith on 2014-05-28; known on 2015-01-01.
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Bob Ellis: “Abbott Will Be Overthrown In The Next Nine Days” ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-06-06; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2014-06-06.
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MTG: There will be an enemy colored dual land printed in a core set within the next three years. (In M15, M16, or M17.) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2014-05-27; known on 2016-07-17; judged right by ygert on 2014-06-28.
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Scott's next post will be whining about feminist responses to Elliot Rodgers. It will contain an epistemically weak response from some sort of manosphere type “for balance, because I do not trust my readers” but also a reassurance that feminism is the rea ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Oligopsony on 2014-05-26; known on 2014-05-29; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-05-27.
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HP MOR: Quirrell was responsible for releasing the troll, but a third party redirected it to Hermione ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by solipsist on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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I will email my voice lesson info in on time. ( 90% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-26; known on 2014-06-02; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-28.
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Ed Miliband will lead the Labour party to the next general election. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine except for Crimea, which will be part of Russia de facto. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Nick Clegg will lead the Lib Dems into the next general election. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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Laura will come over today ( 98% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-05-26; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-25.
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Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by torekp on 2014-06-01.
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The continuous-normal-distribution random-payoff games will have < 3.4% Prisoner's Dilemmas (estimated to the nearest 0.1%). ( 48% confidence )
Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by torekp on 2014-06-01.
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Hannes Rusch simulated random-payoff two-person games (http://www2.units.it/etica/2013_2/RUSCH.pdf) and found that 3.4% of them fit a technical definition of “Prisoner's Dilemma”. The payoffs were uniformly distributed integers in the interval [0-N] and ( 4% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by torekp on 2014-06-01.
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Other to rule Westeros at the end of the TV-series ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2019-07-16.
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Kingdom of Westeros to be dissolved by the end of the TV-series (No house rules more than 4 regions) ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Greyjoy (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Baratheon (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Lannister (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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White Walkers to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Stark (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged right by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Targaryen (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Hannah will pass but not pass advance on her algebra SOL. ( 75% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-06-20; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-08.
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I will not get into college off a waitlist. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by azax1 on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by azax1 on 2014-06-09.
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My physics final was misgraded, or the grade was entered wrong. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-05-30; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-06-09.
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I will play Ranya the song Lonely Press Play within a week from now. ( 70% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-30.
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I will still be in the Pigeon Feeders party (HabitRPG) in 2015 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-01-04.
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The next UK general election will be held on 7 May 2015 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-07.
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Conditional on the UK holding an in-out referendum on the EU before 7 May 2020 the winner will be OUT. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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There will be an in-out referendum on the EU in the next parliament. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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Scotland will vote NO on independence. ( 74% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Less than 33% of seats in the new European Parliament will be taken by parties who are part of officially eurosceptic groups. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-27; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-05-30.
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Lib Dem wipeout in the UK European Parliament elections ( 50% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-25.
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Conservatives win most votes in the UK European Parliament Elections ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.
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Labour wins most votes in the UK European Parliament elections ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.
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UKIP wins most votes in the UK European Parliament elections ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.
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My parents will start looking for a house again within the next 2 years ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-21; known on 2016-05-21; judged right by Ham Nox on 2016-05-22.
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I will put in a reaction today. ( 90% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-05-21; known on 2014-05-22; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-05-21.
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Uniform civil code bill passed in India before 2019 general elections. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2014-05-20; known on 2019-01-01.
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Temple construction begins in Ayodhya on the site of Babri masjid at least by 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by roshni on 2014-05-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15.
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By the end of 2015, at least one service will offer genome sequencing for less than $100. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by player_03 on 2014-05-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2016-01-01.
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Zach and Katie's relationship ends within four years. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-05-18; known on 2018-05-18; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-11-17.
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I will finish Night Circus by Saturday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-18; known on 2014-05-24; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-05-25.
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I will get >=90% on my neurobio course. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18; known on 2014-08-11; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-06.
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I will get an A in health for the year. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by cobalt on 2014-07-08.
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Home Depot receipt will be on fridge when we get home. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danne on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by tunesmith on 2014-05-17.
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There will be Doritos at the wedding or related meal tonight ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.
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PredictionBook exists on 01-01-2020 OR you will have some other way to access this prediction or other predictions made thus far. ( 100% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by asdf on 2014-05-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[HPMOR] The character killed in CH89 is dead and will stay dead. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by raisin on 2014-05-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2015-03-04.
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It will have taken between 100 and 150 days since the publication of the blog post below for me to have been asked for money by 50 people on the streets of New Haven: http://aarongertler.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/belated-philanthropy/ ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-19; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-05-19.
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We will finish the entirety of RENT tonight. ( 80% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-16; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-17.
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Mom will say Happy is a 5/5 song when I ask ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-16; known on 2014-05-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-16.
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Wayne Hsiung will refuse to bet against the claim that attitudes to in vitro meat will change after such meat becomes commercially available. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2014-05-14; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by Pablo on 2014-05-15.
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I will have 3 perfect days in a row on HabitRPG, starting today. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by prototrout on 2014-05-14; known on 2014-05-17; judged wrong by prototrout on 2014-05-15.
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I will pass health class. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-13; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by cobalt on 2014-07-08.
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It will we sunny and much warmer than 20C in Barcelona this weekend ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by influnza on 2014-05-13; known on 2014-05-19; judged wrong by influnza on 2014-05-19.
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The new Berlin (Germany) airport will be operational until June 2016. ( 25% confidence )
Created by nyabhingi on 2014-05-12; known on 2016-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-09-08.
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Martin Schulz will be the next president of the european commision. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nyabhingi on 2014-05-12; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by nyabhingi on 2014-06-30.
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I will agree with my mother about my brother's actions in the story he's about to tell me not being weird ( 80% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-05-12; known on 2014-05-12; judged right by mad on 2014-05-12.
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Grandma will give me money when I go to her house today ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-11; known on 2014-05-12; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-12.
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There will be at least one Diet Coke in the fridge when I open it. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-05-11; known on 2014-05-11; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-05-11.
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USD price in RUB will reach 34 and start to raise again in 2 months ( 10% confidence )
Created by influnza on 2014-05-10; known on 2014-07-10; judged wrong by influnza on 2014-07-11.
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Today, I will successfully 3×5 squat 225lbs. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-09; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-09.
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By the end of this year I will overcome my weakness. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by influnza on 2014-05-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by influnza on 2015-01-06.
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I will have learned “a new thing” about my food problem by the end of May, as determined by an impartial judge when I explain how the month has gone. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-12.
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Contingent on New Jersey repealing its smart gun law, within 1 year of that event, at least one law enforcement agency in the United States will buy smart guns. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-08; known on 2018-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-05-01.
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Yankees score more than 2 runs in the 1st inning. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Yankees score in 1st inning. ( 92% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Yankees hit a home run (5/7) ( 66% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Vidal Nuno will pitch at least 5 innings. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Yankees will score more than 3 runs. ( 57% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Penguins win Game 4 vs Rangers. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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John Ryan Murphy gets a hit tonight. ( 45% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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OKC beats LA Clippers in Game 2. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Indiana Pacers beat Washington Wizards in Game 2. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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All TPS reports are delivered by 3 PM Thursday. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-08; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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My math teacher will ask me to do something for Friday. ( 92% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-05-07.
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MIRI will not win the $250K prize from SVGives ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-07.
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I will get a haircut today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-05-07.
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Clayton Kershaw gives up 4 ER or more (5/6/2014) ( 5% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Blackhawks and Wild go into overtime in Game 3. ( 36% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Blackhawks and Wild combine to score fewer than 7 goals. ( 85% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Spurs and Trailblazers combine to score more than 220 points in Game 1. ( 33% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Spurs and Trailblazers combine to score more than 180 points in Game 1. ( 92% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.