PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Recent Predictions

Legend of Korra book 4: the technology Varrick is working involves messing with bending powers. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-10-21; known on 2014-12-30; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.
EC will attend Comiket 87. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
If the Earth's magnetic field reverses polarity before the confirmation of axions, the data collected during the event will provide confirmation. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 3014-10-20.
Proof of concept for axion-photon conversion as a basis for energy generation demonstrated experimentally, as published in at least one refereed physics journal. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 2114-10-21.
Detection of axions widely accepted in physics publications. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 2024-10-20.
Most Senate Dems outperform RCP average by more than 1%. ( 75% confidence )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 2015-01-16.
The mid-market exchange rate will average below $1.275/€ (i.e. less than 1.275 dollars can be bought per euro) over november 2014. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Philip_W on 2014-10-20; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by Philip_W on 2014-11-30.
KnaveOfAllTrades put 100% (or 0%) on PredictionBook on one of more of yesterday's meetup prediction ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-20; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
My current character in ToME (a dwarf berserker in normal difficulty roguelike mode) will make it to level 20. ( 20% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-20; known on 2014-10-27; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-21.
Bath #15: The endowment given on Wikipedia for the endowment of the University of Bath is greater than or equal to £317.2 million. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #14: Wikipedia: Electron discovered by or on 31st December 1923 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #13: An 'English' mile, to four decimal places, is 1.6034km (Wikipedia) ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #12: Eliezer born in 1979 ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #11: The battery amount given on Wikipedia in the infobox for the Samsung Galaxy S3 is greater or equal to 3700mAh ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #10: The UK infant mortality rate is less than or equal to 1.36 per 1000 according to the CIA World Factbook ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #9: The earliest edit on the Wikipedia article for sudoku was on or before 1st January 2005 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #8: Elizabeth II was born in 1926 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #7: The Young's modulus of steel given in the infobox on Wikipedia is less than or equal to 140GPa ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #6: The number of letters in the Cyrillic alphabet is less than or equal to 30 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #5: Virginia Woolf's lifespan is less than or equal to 45 years going by calendar ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
The highest figure give on the Wikipedia article in the infobox for the length of the Nile is less than or equal to 3100.9km ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #3: An even number of elements have been found/synthesised ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
The density of water under standard conditions is >=1kg per litre ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Bath #1 Wladimir Klitchsko's mass is <= 110kg ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2016. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2014. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2015. ( 70% confidence )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.
Steam user http://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561197973910513/ will be VAC banned for cheating by 2015 Feb 1 ( 95% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by assmaster on 2014-10-19; known on 2015-04-01.
I will re-watch 3+ of my favorite movies (rated 90th+ percentile) before 2015-01-05 ( 99% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-19; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-04.
Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 200m. ( 20% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known in 3 days.
Usain Bolt sets a new personal best in the 200m. ( 31% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known in 3 days.
Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known in 3 days.
Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known in 3 days.
Hillary Clinton will not become the next president of the USA ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by truerepublican on 2014-10-18; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
There are unlocks in ToME4 that are unlocked via the Arena mode. ( 30% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-17; known on 2014-10-17; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-17.
I will finish reading and doing representative problems from chapters 1-4 of Ideals, Varieties, and Algorithms by David Cox by the midterm on 10/29/2014. (I started 10/16/2014) ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-16; known on 2014-10-29; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-29.
I will attend Comiket 87. ( 90% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-16; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
I will manage at least one ascension in this year's /dev/null ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-15; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-04.
Ebola will be considered endemic in a year. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-10-14; known on 2015-10-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12.
beta_b by or on Halloween ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-04.
Two or more people that I do not bring turn up to the first Bath LW meetup. (Fixed point prediction.) ( 87% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
'collinear' is a recognized spelling on Wiktionary (possibly e.g. British English). ( 85% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-10-14; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-14.
The U.S. budget deficit will be less than 3% of GDP for fiscal year 2015. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by codexaenir8 on 2014-10-14; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.
I will die on HabitRPG this month. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-11-02.
Conditional on UKIP winning the Rochester byelection, Cameron faces an official leadership challenge within a month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-12-06; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06.
UKIP wins at least 9 MPs at the next election ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
Lib Dems win at most 5 MPs at the next election. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
Thursday 16th: No flakage, conditional on text as discussed. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-16.
<10 US Fataltiies due to Ebola virus in 2014 ( 98% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2014-10-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2015-01-02.
I will work out today. ( 100% confidence )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-10-13; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-10-13.
I will be on time for dim sum. ( 80% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-10-11; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-10-12.
qwerty314 and KnaveOfAllTrades are Miles and Daniel. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Twey on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-10-13; judged wrong by Twey on 2014-10-11.
I will complete the Ana Pana course in Esperanto by December. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-04.
I will receive a promotion or get a new job by 2016 ( 75% confidence )

Created by mad on 2014-10-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2016-04-14.
I will not be living in Australia on December 31st, 2015 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by mad on 2014-10-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2016-04-14.
I will still be regularly working on toy programming project Callan in two months. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-08; known on 2014-12-08; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-09.
silver.com is a company website ( 80% confidence )

Created by Silver on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by Silver on 2014-10-07.
The metric spaces lecturer says a sentence containing 'I claim' during the two hour lecture today ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
The number of undergraduates at Bath Spa, conditional on such a figure being given and being unique, is 6500 or greater ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
The longest figure given on the Wikipedia info-box, conditional on it being given, for the length of the M25 is longer that 116 miles ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
Conditional on us going, someone (possibly including Ross) picks Mr Brightside ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-11; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-12.
Conditional on us going. Ross plays Senorita i.e. he does it or nobody else pick it ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-11; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-12.
Avril Lavigne is colloquially 30 years old ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
The age of Kylie Minogue is 46 years old ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
I will have at least one pint of beer with Dan on Friday afternoon. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mike on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-10; judged right by Mike on 2014-10-10.
I will watch a movie I like more than Persona (current favorite) by the end of the year. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by asalmon on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by asalmon on 2015-01-02.
I am accepted to Y Combinator with my idea for an EEG framework: http://synaptitude.me/, Winter 2015 ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lettergram on 2014-10-05; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-11-01.
McSweeney's will NOT select my list, “Four Vegetables You Hated As A Kid But Should Give A Second Chance, Even If They Did Murder Your Family”, as a piece to publish on their website. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-04; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.
The number of episodes of The O.C. is 92 or 96, including specials ( 93% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
I won't post, comment, or tweet on Facebook or Twitter between October 6th and the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-10-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.
The highest land area given in the infobox for Russia is 325,000,000(km^2) or more ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
The number of Google results for 'Monopoly' (conditional on a unique figure being given) is 4,000,000 or more ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
The greatest speed of a barracuda that is given on its WIkipedia page (conditional on being given) is 73MPH or higher ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
The greatest height given on Wikipedia for Ben Nevis in the infobox (conditional on such a height being given) is 4500 feet or more ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
The population of Bath as listed on Wikipedia is 85,000 or higher ( 58% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
Tommy Hilfiger (the company) was established in 1977 or later ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
Geoff Smith was born on 1st October 1954 or earlier ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
The number milligrams of sodium in a bottle of water is less than or equal to 12.5mg ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
The number of undergraduates at the University of Bath given on the Wikipedia page is less than of equal to 8850 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
The number of episodes in the OC is either 92 or 96 ( 65% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02.
The number of countries in Africa is 58+/-1 conditional on clear-cut answer. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
I will finish the exercises from “Thermal Physics” by end October 2014, thus completing second year physics. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-10-01; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.
Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.
Housmates about to set the fire alarm off ( 80% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2014-09-27; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27.
If SCOTUS hears a gay marriage case in the next 2 years the ruling will determine there is a constitutional right to gay marriage. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2016-09-27; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-31.
Any Lab>UKIP defection this parliament ( 30% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
A third Tory>UKIP defection before the Tory conference ends. ( 60% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-10-01.
I will get the position with Venture For America. ( 25% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-09-27; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-10-02.
[LoL Worlds] Finals won by Korean team. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-26; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
[LoL Worlds] At least one Korean team in finals. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-26; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
At least one Tory MP defects to UKIP by the end of this parliament. ( 80% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27.
At least one Tory MP defects to UKIP before the end of their party conference. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-26; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27.
In 2 years I will conclude that bombing IS was net negative. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-25; known on 2016-09-25.
Barack Obama is over fifty years old ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
Global population is over 7.1 billion (Wikipedia) ( 68% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
Global GDP PPP is over $100 trillion (Wikipedia) ( 44% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
Second appeal reverses decision ( 25% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-11-14; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-01.
The population of Nigeria is over 400 million (Wikipedia) ( 63% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
The Princess Bride has 90+% approval from Top Critics on Rotten Tomatoes ( 85% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
The current or most recent season of The Simpsons was season 25 ( 40% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.