Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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The Yankees score at least 1 run tonight (5/6/2014) ( 92% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Dave Robertson pitches tonight. ( 30% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Hiroki Kuroda pitches less than 6 innings against the Angels. ( 20% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Hiroki Kuroda pitches at least 8 innings against the Angels. ( 15% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Miami Heat beat Brooklyn Nets in Game 1 ( 70% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-06; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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one of the bridesmaids/men at my sister's wedding will faint ( 2% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.
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my sister will trip down the aisle at her wedding ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.
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Twinkies contain between 150 and 500 calories each. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-06; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-05-06.
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By May 2034, the fraction of Catholic masses that are in Latin (as opposed to the vernacular) will be the same as or higher than it is now in 2014. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-05; known on 2034-05-01.
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The Chicago Blackhawks will win their 2nd round series against the Minnesota Wild (2014). ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-16; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-14.
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The Boston Bruins will win their 2nd round series against the Montreal Canadiens (2014). ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-15; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-15.
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The San Antonio Spurs will win their 2nd round series against the Portland Trailblazers. ( 84% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-15.
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The Miami Heat will win their 2nd round series against the Brooklyn Nets (2014). ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-15.
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Indiana Pacers will win their 2nd round series against the Washington Wizards (2014). ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-16.
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Oklahoma City Thunder will win their 2nd round series against the Los Angeles Clippers (2014). ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-16.
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I will make daily predictions until at least the end of May. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-31; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-16.
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By 2030 genome sequencing would be offered as a service in local clinics/hospitals for an insignificant fee or for free in most (50%+) of the countries that today (2014) constitute together the Schengen Area, EU, Balkans, North America and Japan. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Neznans on 2014-05-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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My family does not get the creek house ( 40% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-08-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-08.
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The creek house we want will not go for a price under 200 (or 20, I forget the magnitude. The point is that Mom won't get her -1 or 2 significant digit she wants.) ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-08-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-08.
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The Botworld paper will cause someone from IDSIA to express some opinion about AIXItl working in only restricted environments, which that person from IDSIA says they did not possess before reading about Botworld, or the update is apparent from their previ ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by yudkowsky@gmail.com on 2014-05-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.
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I will go to choir tomorrow. ( 75% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-03; known on 2014-05-04; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-04.
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Tomorrow I will be asked/invited to do something outside of the house that is not grocery shopping. ( 30% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-02; known on 2014-05-03; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-03.
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I will publicly record at least one prediction per month, at least until the end of 2014. ( 78% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-11-26.
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I won't get a H1B visa this year ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by influnza on 2014-05-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by influnza on 2014-08-03.
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Lizz will grow to have a negative opinion of her new job within 2 years. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-02; known on 2016-05-02; judged right by Ham Nox on 2016-05-02.
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Spencer will be voted out on this episode of Survivor: Cagayan ( 75% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-01.
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Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Dan McLaughlin will fail to play the PGA Tour after completing 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26384712 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2014-05-01; known on 2017-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2017-05-27.
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No gothic, gothic metal, ebm, electronic stuff festivals in USA similar to M'era Luna or GWT in Germany are running. ( 90% confidence )
Created by influnza on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01.
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Rotten tomato score for ender's game is between 25 and 45 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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Rotten tomato score for Ender's game is between 12 and 98% ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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Brayden accepts a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by dusk on 2014-06-30.
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Brayden receives a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by dusk on 2014-06-30.
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Nicholas Wade will still be employed by the New York Times in a year. ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-09.
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I will make 200 bones on NBA and NFL combined next season ( 75% confidence )
Created by TimmyDurkin on 2014-04-30; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by TimmyDurkin on 2015-04-20.
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My children will have perfect aural skills because I will sing while pregnant ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by influnza on 2014-04-30; known on 2024-04-30.
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Van Gaal to be next Manchester United manager ( 70% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-08-15; judged right by dgray on 2014-05-28.
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Will run into friend on their way to work ( 5% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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Friend's girlfriend will be at house when I get there ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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get to friend's house in morning, they will still be there. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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I will do predictions for a month at least ( 76% confidence )
Created by influnza on 2014-04-29; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by influnza on 2014-06-01.
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I will reach the 2500 achievement points level in fewer than 12 days ( 75% confidence )
Created by bibliophile221B on 2014-04-29; known on 2014-05-11; judged right by bibliophile221B on 2014-05-03.
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I will have done a walk with at least 200 meters of climb, at least 3 times, by the end of 2014, carrying 30kg of weights. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-04-29; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2014-06-22.
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LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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15+ people will be signed up for my Prediction challenge(s) by the end of May ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.
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At least 3 people (not including myself) will be signed up for my “I'm always right” challenge by the end of May ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.
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i will finish chapter three today ( 89% confidence )
Created by Flipnash on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-04-29; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-29.
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Actual “Anki” google trend level in the period a year from now (May2014 – April 2015) would mostly surpass the current forecast for the next year : http://i59.tinypic.com/2uf4qvr.jpg ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Neznans on 2014-04-28; known on 2015-04-01.
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Narendra Modi will become PM of India in the 2014 elections. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by roshni on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by roshni on 2014-05-20.
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One of my 2 friends will be wearing jeans when I go to meet them. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-04-28; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28.
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The next GW2 storyline will involve recovering from the destruction of Lion's Arch and Scarlett's rampage ( 50% confidence )
Created by bibliophile221B on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-05-15.
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The economist formerly known as 'The Blade of Vengeance" will read in full “The Crash Course” by end of 27 May 2014 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-05-28; judged right by waveman on 2014-05-28.
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30 Rock episode 1 they go to Burger King after the restaurant. ( 75% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-04-27.
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I will still have making a prediction a day as one of my dailies through the middle of August. ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bibliophile221B on 2014-04-26; known on 2014-08-15; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-15.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day and remember to check them off on HabitRPG through the end of April ( 95% confidence )
Created by bibliophile221B on 2014-04-26; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2014-05-01.
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The majority of public schools in Arizona will not require students to utilize spaced repetition software at any point within the next 10 years. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-25; known on 2024-04-25.
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I will go with my friend to California this week. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-25; known on 2014-04-28; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-26.
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I will still have making a prediction a day as a Daily in HabitRPG through May 31, 2014 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day through the 1st of May ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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Within 3 years one of the Ariel Castro victims will be on Dancing With The Stars – Joan Rivers ( 3% confidence )
Created by nsavir on 2014-04-24; known on 2017-04-23.
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When I test the effect of caffeine consumption on sleep quality, I will find a significant effect for 1 can of coke (32mg) regardless of time of day of consumption. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nsavir on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-10-25.
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I will look at my phone right after getting up and it will be between 5 and 6. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-23; known on 2014-04-23; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-04-23.
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R will submit picks on Fantasy UFC for UFC172 ( 80% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-04-23; known on 2014-04-27; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-27.
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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A Presidential election will occur in Ukraine by June 5th or a Russian invasion of Ukraine will occur. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-21; known on 2014-06-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-25.
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I will lose the game today, (other than within an hour of predicting this) ( 70% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-21; known on 2014-04-22; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-21.
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I will get accepted to App Academy before 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-05-15.
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Brienne will be free of social anxiety in 4 months of this posting. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-08-20; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-08-20.
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Given that Brienne was free of social anxiety on May 20 2014, she will be free of social anxiety on August 20 2014 as well. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-08-21; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-08-21.
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On May 20, 2014, Brienne will still be free of social anxiety. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-05-21.
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There will be a Israel Palestinian peace deal before the end of Obama's term. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-04-17; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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I will not do the alhohol/math experiments ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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When I finish my alcohol and mathematical creativity experiments, I will find that I can solve 10+% fewer problems under the influence of some dosage of alcohol than sober ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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When I finish my alcohol and mathematical creativity experiments, I will find that I can solve 10+% more problems under the influence of some dosage of alcohol than sober ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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424 HW #7 will take 4 or fewer pomodoros ( 85% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-17; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-16.
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I will wake up at 7am April 16. ( 50% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-16; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-16.
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I will waste less than 60 minutes on April 16. ( 50% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-17; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-17.
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I will do 8-12 pomodoros on April 16. ( 55% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-18; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-04-18.
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I will be able to pack everything for China into one backpack. ( 90% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by from3004 on 2014-05-20.
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I will continue to drink an espresso a day by the end of April. ( 80% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-05-11.
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I will do between 60 and 80 pomodoros in April of 2014 ( 70% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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I will own a large dog ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-04-16; known in 3 days; judged right by mad on 2016-04-14.
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Littlefinger was (partly) responsible for the Purple Wedding. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-15; known on 2019-04-15; judged right by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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The Tyrells were (partly) responsible for the Purple Wedding. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-15; known on 2019-04-15; judged right by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-12.
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By June 2014, I will decide to stop eating wheat ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-11; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-21.
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The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-04-10; known on 2050-01-01.
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http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/09/dermatology-pop-quiz/ 2 is false ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Benquo on 2014-04-10; known on 2014-05-02; judged wrong by Benquo on 2014-04-11.
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http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/09/dermatology-pop-quiz/ 1 is false ( 50% confidence )
Created by Benquo on 2014-04-10; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Benquo on 2014-04-11.
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BJP will win elections in India ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dgray on 2014-04-09; known on 2014-05-15; judged right by roshni on 2014-05-20.
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The CAQ will be the official opposition after the 2014 Quebec elections. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-07; known on 2014-04-08; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-04-09.
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CoffeeScript infrastructure deployment script will be functional within 72 hours of development time ( 80% confidence )
Created by schmatz on 2014-04-07; known on 2014-04-12; judged right by schmatz on 2014-04-13.
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[OOTS] O-Chul will be alive the next time we see or hear of him ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2014-04-07; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-30.
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Mh370 black box discovered ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by procran on 2014-04-06; known on 2014-04-15; judged wrong by procran on 2014-04-15.
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Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2014-04-06; known on 2014-04-20; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2014-04-21.