Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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I will be attempting to get pregnant within a year of my IUD being removed (e.g. IUD removed > other form of BC > trying to conceive; or IUD removed > trying to conceive) ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2016-02-13; judged wrong by mad on 2016-02-13.
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After a month, my IUD insertion will have been deemed successful (i.e. it will not have fallen out or caused some sort of medical complication) ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-04-09; judged right by mad on 2014-04-09.
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My IUD will be inserted successfully (i.e. i won't be in so much pain i ask them to stop / the doctor won't screw it up somehow) ( 99% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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I will not be feeling aftereffects from my IUD insertion in a month (cramps, bleeding) ( 90% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-04-06; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-07.
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I will not go to the music quiz on Thursday ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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I will not go to work on Friday ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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Tomorrow will be a better day than today ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.
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It was between 10am and 12pm when I woke up this morning ( 80% confidence )
Created by slackson on 2014-03-04; known on 2014-03-04; judged right by slackson on 2014-03-04.
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The link I'm about to click on goes to TVTropes. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-04; known on 2014-03-05; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-04.
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I'll go visiting on Wednesday ( 60% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-04; known on 2014-03-05; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.
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Jesse will be elected House President for next year. ( 75% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-04; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-03-06.
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Russia annexes Crimea this year. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-03-03; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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Amazon Prime will cost $150 per year or less on Jan 1, 2017. Contingent upon no major changes in the Amazon prime system (e.g., no premium service, drones, or changes in shipping rates). Per convo w Chris S, who thinks Amazon is gonna start trying to actu ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2014-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Russia will face economic sanctions by mid- 2014 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-06-15; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-06.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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The bill will be between $250 and $480. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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>0 combat fatalities (civil unrest excluded) within Ukrainian borders ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by procran on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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HPMoR: I will finish translating 22nd chapter (into Polish) by the end of March ( 60% confidence )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by jkadlubo on 2014-04-02.
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HPMoR: I will finish translating 21st chapter (into Polish) by the end of March ( 90% confidence )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-15.
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Leo DiCaprio finally wins an Oscar this year. ( 55% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-03-03.
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Teddy and I will go see Cashmere Cat. ( 70% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-03-23; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-04-03.
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I will see Nashwa next weekend. ( 80% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-03-11; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-03-11.
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Mike will come to Danny Brown with me. ( 60% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-04-07; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-04-07.
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Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by on 2014-04-01.
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NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of March. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-01.
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Woo will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, tae kwon do-er) ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-24.
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Trish will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, pilates instructor) ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-24.
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Tony will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, cop) ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged right by mad on 2014-05-24.
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Lindsey will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, hairstylist) ( 8% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-31.
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Cliff will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, ex-NBA) ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-24.
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Morgan will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, ex-cheerleader) ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.
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LJ will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, bartender) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-22.
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Jeremiah will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, model) ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-27.
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Jefra will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, pagent girl) ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-01.
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Brice will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, social worker) ( 8% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-06.
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Alexis will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, college student) ( 4% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-31.
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Spencer will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, “the cochran who doesn't suck”) ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-25.
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Kass will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, attorney) ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-25.
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J'Tia Taylor will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, nuclear engineer) ( 1% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-19.
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Tasha Fox will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, accountant) ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-09.
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Sarah (the cop/MMA fighter on the Brawn tribe) will win Survivor: Cagayan ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-04.
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State of war has existed between Russian federation and at least one NATO member by 2016-01-01. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Crimea or similar territory to be recognized by at least one country as not part of Ukraine by 2016-01-01. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Silver on 2014-03-27.
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Twitch Plays Pokémon will win the game (become Pokémon Champion) within 48 hours of this prediction. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by mad on 2014-03-01.
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Leena will agree with me (before March 7th, 2014) that we should start mining the moon. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-03-07.
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Bitcoin will drop in value over next week ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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Brazil, 2014: The federal government will announce that an official, mandatory rationing of electricity use will be imposed on a system-wide basis. ( 25% confidence )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.
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Extreme market volatility in 2014 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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My spine/back/chest will stop hurting within the week. ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-05; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.
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I will have dinner with Nashwa on Saturday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-27; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-03-02.
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HP MoR: A Horcrux or Philosopher's stone was hidden Mount Etna ( 22% confidence )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Lesath Lestrange will cast Avada Kedavra ( 75% confidence )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: The Remembrall went off because Harry forgot to study mind magic ( 25% confidence )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Nicholas Flamel ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Baba Yaga ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore kills Snape ( 30% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2014-02-27; known on 2016-02-27; judged wrong by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-07.
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The Beauty tribe will be the first tribe to vote a player off in the Survivor: Cagayan premiere ( 40% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-02-27; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by mad on 2014-02-28.
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I will hear piano sometimes the next 7 days ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-26; known on 2014-03-05; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.
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We'll make it to a year. ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-26; known on 2014-10-14; judged right by reesarose on 2014-10-14.
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I will see Nashwa on Saturday night. ( 70% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-26; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-03-02.
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Mt. Gox “strategy” document is not a hoax ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kiba on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-03-27; judged right by gwern on 2014-02-25.
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One of the three top comments on the thread I'm about to read will be “gluten free.” ( 80% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-02-25; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-25.
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I will have finished the Lesswrong main sequences by June 11th 2014. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-06-11; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-06-20.
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Firefox mobile OS: > 5% mobile market share in five years ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-02-25; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-07.
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In 2019, in the USA, it will be possible to have more than 99% of our genome sequenced for less than the median salary per household per day (averaged from the year 2019) divided by the average number of people per household. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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a post it will fall down ( 70% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-03-24; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-04-02.
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The AMC10B cut-off for AIME will be 120.0 ( 95% confidence )
Created by Nix on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by Nix on 2014-03-07.
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I will pee for at least 60 seconds. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-02-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-24.
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My allergies will clear up by 02/26/2014. ( 80% confidence )
Created by mavant on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-02-26; judged right by mavant on 2014-02-26.
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Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-24; known on 2040-01-01.
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I will not know the score of the hockey's final before I watch it. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-03-16; judged right by Mati on 2014-03-14.
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Agora marketplace will be severely hacked or taken down within a week. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-03-03.
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it will rain in the next week ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-04.
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I will get my lab report submitted by 15:00 today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-02-24.
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Jacob Wilson wins Pro Tour: Born of the Gods. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ygert on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-02-23; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-23.
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I'll see love friday or saturday ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-03-03; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-04.
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MtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it. ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-28.
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The unflavored Pedialyte will not taste discernibly worse than the flavored Pedialyte when I try it. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Benquo on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by Benquo on 2014-02-22.
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RL Grime's new collab with What So Not was played in Philly. ( 95% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-04-16; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-03-07.
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There will be just as much opposition protesting in Ukraine by March 2014 and there will have been further clashes with government forces. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by refnum on 2014-02-21; known on 2014-03-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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I will manage to enroll my son Jacek into deaf children's school, even though by law he has to have a hearing deficit, which he does not have – he has auditory verbal agnosia. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-02-21; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by jkadlubo on 2015-01-04.
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I will go on a date with Nashwa. ( 55% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-21; known on 2014-04-16; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-02-24.
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Saturday will be super fun ( 100% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-21; known on 2014-02-24; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-25.
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I complete the Irish translation of HabitRPG within 2 weeks. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-20; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-03-07.
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I will finish HPMOR by Friday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-20; known on 2014-02-22; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-02-22.
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Pizza-flavored Pringles contain milk ingredients. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-19; known on 2014-02-20; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-19.
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I'll go see Palmer's YCTIWY ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-19; known on 2014-03-20; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-17.
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I will qualify for AIME on the 2014 AMC10B ( 42% confidence )
Created by Nix on 2014-02-19; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Nix on 2014-03-07.
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I will finish two chapters of reading today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-18; known on 2014-02-19; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-19.
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I will see Tegan by Monday. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-18; known on 2014-02-25; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-02-19.
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I will finish chapter four of this book tonight ( 55% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-18; known on 2014-02-18; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-19.
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my stomach will stop hurting by tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-19; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-19.
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McCaleb will confirm Mtgox never actually sold Magic cards. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-02-17.
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I see Naswa on Thursday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-21; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-02-21.
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i will see bf this week (hopefully) ( 40% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-23.
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We will have House Council tonight at 21:00. ( 90% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-02-17.
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Germany will not reach the proclaimed goal of 30 medals at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ir88 on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by ir88 on 2014-02-24.
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I will go home before noon tomorrow. ( 5% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-16; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-17.