PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I have covid-19 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by enolan on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-09-03.

[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >100k acres affected by Sunday 9am ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-20.

[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >=50k acres affected by Sunday 9AM ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-20.

[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >=15% contained by Sunday 9AM Pacific ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-23.

I get Amazon student prime by EOY ( 60% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Radish on 2021-01-03.

New ice cream will be gone before Friday evening ( 30% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged wrong by Radish on 2020-08-23.

Packing the major items in our apartment will take less than 3 hours ( 75% confidence )

Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged wrong by commercecat on 2020-08-24.

If I meet with Adam and Anna today, I'm going to find it as effective or more effective than our other convos. ( 20% confidence )

Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2020-08-18.

I will get a truck by the end of the weekend ( 90% confidence )

Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.

I will get a Uhaul truck on Saturday ( 85% confidence )

Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.

I will get the UHaul truck I reserved on Saturday. ( 80% confidence )

Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.

If we implement operator by Wednesday Aug 19, then on next Tuesday meeting, our First Time to respond will avg <1 hour. Luke's prediction. ( 99% confidence )

Created by maneesh on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-26.

My squat rack will arrive on or before august 21. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-08-22; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2020-08-22.

There will be riots and/or civil unrest, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots, in conjunction with the 2020 presidential election. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-11-16.

Climate Change – August 2020 will be the 428th-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average, according to NOAA ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-09-01.

Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020 ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.

Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of October 2020 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.

Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of September 2020 ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.

Personal – I successfully fully download, including content, sufficient to launch, MSFS 2020 by end of 2020-08-18. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-08-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-21.

Politics, Belarus – Election recount or rerun with international observers occurs or is announced by the government by end of September 2020. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.

Tech – Fortnite is returned to the Google Play Store by end of August 2020. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.

Politics, UK – Ofqual switches to using teacher predicted grades rather than their current school + relative ranking model to assign exam scores by deadline. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.

Politics, UK – New agency specifically for handling pandemics announced by the UK government by end of August. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.

Politics, UK – New agency specifically for handling pandemics announced by the UK government by end of 2020-08-23. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-08-24; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.

Literature – Part three of the Kingkiller Chronicle trilogy is not going to be released in August 2020. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-04.

Literature – Part three of the Kingkiller Chronicle trilogy is not going to be released before 2022-01-01. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-16; known on 2022-01-01.

[Geopolitics , Belarus , Russia] Little Green Men (or equivalent) shows up in Belarus within 1 (one) month. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2020-08-15; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-09-18.

I find that pumpkin seeds do actually make a difference to my sleep quality, that the initial experience wasn't just placebo ( 60% confidence )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-08-15; known on 2020-10-15; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-11-17.

NIST standardizes Kyber and Dilithium ( 70% confidence )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by sam_jaques on 2022-07-05.

firefox will add back built-in support for RSS feeds by 2025 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by finback on 2020-08-14; known on 2025-01-01.

New Glenn to launch by end of 2021. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

In 31 days from now, I'll have earned at least 100 USD from “beermoney” services ( 45% confidence )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-08-14; known on 2020-09-14; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-09-14.

Will California pay out any part of Trump's federal unemployment benefits in August? ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Stephen on 2020-08-13; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-09-03.

The UK administers at least 10 million coronavirus vaccines by the end of the year ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-01-01.

No additional toilet malfunction before end of calendar year ( 80% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Radish on 2021-01-03.

Dentist will strongly recommend a procedure after cleaning tomorrow ( 70% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged right by Radish on 2020-08-14.

I will see C at the A moveout this weekend ( 99% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-16; judged right by Radish on 2020-08-16.

I will not be married within the next 5 years ( 80% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2025-08-12.

I will continue to drink at least 1 cup of coffee daily on most weekdays through the end of this calendar year ( 80% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2021-01-02; judged right by Radish on 2022-02-16.

I will buy a Mac this fall ( 25% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Radish on 2020-12-16.

I will drop out of my PhD program after 2 years ( 30% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2022-08-12.

If Caleb and I move our morning to call to 10:30am ET, I believe that, we will both be happier about the call time and results. If so, we may consider even earlier ( 60% confidence )

Created by maneesh on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-19.

If Barbara messages people in the app and requests non-amazon users to record a testimonial if they are happy, then we willget 3 people who book a call, or who record a testimonial via Tell Your Story module by end of thursday 13-Aug-2020 ( 50% confidence )

Created by maneesh on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by maneesh on 2020-08-14.

After the US election, media coverage and public sentiment regarding Coronavirus will greatly shift towards a view that its not all that bad. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kenlogan@gmail.com on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-12-29; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-29.

[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 90-100% chance of winning ( 25% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-08-12.

[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 80-90% chance of winning ( 50% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-08-12.

[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 70-80% chance of winning ( 20% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged right by amadeu on 2020-08-12.

[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 50-70% chance of winning ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-08-12.

I'll use predictionbook at least three more days by Sunday ( 40% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-17; judged right by Radish on 2020-08-17.

Try wall paint on sample tomorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by pbadger on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-13.

Install window tomorrow ( 80% confidence )

Created by pbadger on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-13.

The AI will beat the human pilot in the AlphaDogfight Trials. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JohnGreer on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-08-24.

[Zvi's article] Sees this week as negative ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.

[Zvi's article] Sees this week as neutral ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.

[Zvi's article] Sees this week as slightly positive ( 30% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.

[Zvi's article] Sees this week as moderately positive ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.

[Zvi's article] Sees this week as significantly positive ( 10% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.

I will release a blog post or other publication about this portfolio margin idea before EOY 2020 ( 10% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2020-08-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.

I get all of my Anki's correct today except quicksort ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-12.

Next Ranking The Steelers article posted by Friday ( 40% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-15; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.

https://covid19-projections.com/ estimates <15% of the country has been infected ( 40% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.

https://covid19-projections.com/ estimates less than 3% of Nevada is infected right now ( 40% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.

Coronavirus cases for Nevada yesterday went up less than 2% ( 80% confidence )