Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-26; known on 2030-01-05.
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A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034 ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-25; known on 2034-01-01.
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Vlad and Valerie will kiss by the end of the episode ( 60% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-25; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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None of the main 4 characters in Outer Banks will die in season 1 ( 90% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-06-25.
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All 4 other invited people will come to the party tomorrow ( 65% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-26; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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Jon will not ask me to play CoD tonight ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-25; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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T will come to the party tomorrow ( 40% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-26; judged wrong by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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This sore throat I’ve had for 5 days won’t turn into anything worse ( 95% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-06-01.
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I have no idea ( 50% confidence )
Created by Humuani on 2020-05-24; known on 2020-05-25; judged right by Humuani on 2020-05-24.
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Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May, and successfully delivers them to the ISS. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-05-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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Tech – iPhone 12 releases in 2020, and does not include headphones/earphones in the box in the base model. ( 50% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Tech – iPhone 12 releases in 2020 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, India – Dr Sudhakar Rao released from mental hospital by end of May. ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May. ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-05-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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Tech – LG releases a “swivel” two-screen smartphone which unfolds into a T shape by end of 2020 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Someone else ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Stacey Abrams ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Maggie Hassan ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Michelle Lujan Grisham ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Gretchen Whitmer ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Kamala Harris ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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New York City will not be subject to any executive orders restricting movement or gathering on August 1st, 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by panashe on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by panashe on 2020-08-01.
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The Australian government releases a version of the COVIDSafe app which supports Apple’s iOS contact tracing API in 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2020-05-21; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-01-01.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2021 ( 60% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2022-01-31.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOM June 2021 ( 50% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-08-21.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2020 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.
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Tech – Apple announces AR or VR hardware during WWDC 2020. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Politics, UK – Court action for evictions is suspended further beyond the 25th of June. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-06-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, UK – Scottish government states that people can visit friends at their homes again by end of June. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-20.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish making Anki cards for and reading chapters 5 and 6 of “An Introduction to Godel's Theorems” by the end of the 23rd of May. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-05-24; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-22.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish reading and making Anki cards for four more MIRI papers by end of May 2020. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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I have learned all words in all 7 levels of Memrise Russian. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-05-14; known on 2020-09-24; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-11.
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Bitcoin will have gone past $12,000 in the next three months. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-05-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-08-11.
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adsfasdfasdf ( 70% confidence )
Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.
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Daffy will move out of the Bay Area ( 70% confidence )
Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.
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[ Law Enforcement, Celebrity, Musician ] Tekashi69 (AKA Tekashi 6ix9ine) (Daniel Hernandez) (born May 8, 1996) to have an act of murder or attempted murder committed against him ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-05-10; known on 2025-05-11.
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1330926 język rosnie? ( 75% confidence )
Created by mackiewelina on 2020-05-09; known on 2020-07-31.
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The English Premier League (professional football league) will cancel the remainder of the 2019/2020 season ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by panashe on 2020-05-09; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by panashe on 2020-06-20.
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Amash gets the R nomination in 2020, conditional on Trump not getting it. ( 2% confidence )
Created by evand on 2020-05-09; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by evand on 2020-11-16.
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Politics, UK – Government announces quarantine of newly arrived air passengers by end of May. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-15.
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Fed cuts Fed Fund rate to negative before end of 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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Tuzar Skipper makes the roster ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-04.
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Jaylen Samuels makes the roster ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-05.
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NFL season starts on time ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-09-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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Business, US – By deadline, news has come out to the effect that Elon Musk's baby is not legally named “X Æ A-12”. This includes but is not limited to statements by either Elon Musk or Grimes to that effect, even if later contradicted again. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-06; known on 2020-07-06; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-05-25.
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Alex isn't home ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-05; known on 2020-05-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-05.
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Morocco will require people to wears mask 2 weeks following the end of quarantine ( 60% confidence )
Created by kvfi on 2020-05-05; known on 2020-05-20.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 31st. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, UK – “The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (4)” requirement to close premises and businesses is revoked or amended, or the list of affected businesses in Schedule 2 is amended, by end of May. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics UK – The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full or amended by end of May. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics UK – The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full by end of May. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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The guest for The Joe Rogan Experience podcast episode #1488 will be politically left-of-center or anti-politics. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by AndreBaptiste on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-05-29; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-06-13.
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Germanys Corona-Warn-App has a release in May ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-06-01.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in the 2020 presidential elections. ( 50% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-04-30; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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covid Restrictions on air travel will be lifted (as pertains to SJ's MS job) by November 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-04-29; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by kjaques on 2020-11-01.
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Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2021-04-26; judged wrong by evand on 2021-04-26.
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Starhopper SN 4 test article will pass cryo pressure test ( 50% confidence )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-04-27; judged right by evand on 2020-05-09.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Business, UK – Greene King announces that it will not charge its pub landlords rent for at least some period of the COVID-19 closures by end of July. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
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Politics, UK – General instruction to all pubs to close is rescinded by end of July 2020. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
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COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 350 on a single day in May 2020. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 250 on a single day in May 2020. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, UK – More than 50% of the UK's schools are open on the 1st of June 2020 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Personal – I weigh in below 67kg by the end of May. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-22.
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The study of Hölscher will show that at in Munich max 5 times as many people are infected with Covid-19 than positive tests showed. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-24; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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[Statistics, Culture] For the next calendar year, starting 2021 to 2022, there will be a statistically significant drop in the number of children named 'Corona' ( 55% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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There will be a flood of positive news stories about Hydroxychloroquin the week after the presidential election ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jgvergo on 2020-04-23; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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Gold reaches range $800~900/oz by 04/21/2021 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-22; known on 2021-04-21; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2021-04-21.
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One or more members of predictionbook acknowledges that excluding features with statistically significant coefficients when constructing statistical models is a form pseudo-rationality, and admits below to being guilty of this. ( 45% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-22; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-01.
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France to experience a Covid “second wave” in 2020 (any count of daily deaths > 800 by end of calendar year) ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-04-21; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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>1000 tons of oil spills between May 1st 2020 and May 1st 2021. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2020-04-21; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2020-06-04.
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People will use Wine (the windows non-emulator) on Windows to play older games within 20 years ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-20; known on 2040-04-20.
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a bill passes and is signed into law to add more money to the SBA PPP program in 2020 before 1am on June 1, 2020 ET ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Contingent on more money being added to the PPP program, that money will be available for 501c3 non-profits ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Rethink Charity gets SBA PPP program money in 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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More money is added to the SBA PPP program in 2020 ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Having survived CoViD-19 makes you immune for at least a year ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-11-03; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Remdesivir approved by the FDA by the end of July 2020 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-18; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-05-02.
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Trump wins the 2020 election. ( 41% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azatris on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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S&P 500 index retests 2200 by the end of 2020 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2021-01-01.
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U.S. 10-year bond yield dips below 0.25 in 2020 ( 65% confidence )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-17; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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Schools in Germany will open again in April ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-05-02.
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Kindergartens in Germany will open again in April ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-08.
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Bars and clubs will open again in The Netherlands in 2020. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-08.
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The car is Alex's ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-13; known on 2020-04-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-13.
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US Corona-virus lock downs will end in May ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gunner1313 on 2020-04-11; known on 2020-04-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-01.
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Sweden to have a stay-at-home lockdown by the end of April ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-05-01.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 40% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-15.
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If Sweden doesn't implement lockdowns, then their per capita coronavirus deaths will exceed the average of the other Nordic countries by 25% or more. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-07-10; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-11.
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Ben gets reference to “Don't stutter” ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09; known on 2020-04-09; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-12.
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Ben gets the reference to “Germany”` ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09; known on 2020-04-09; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09.
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13 million people infected with COVID-19 before there's a vaccine available, if any, by mid-June. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by areyouhappy on 2020-04-09; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by gunner1313 on 2020-04-11.
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China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01.
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UVXY will hit $65 again by April 17th ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by bradleybossard on 2020-04-07; known on 2020-04-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-18.
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ES futures will range between 2575 and 2650 between Mon 4/6/20 4pm PT and market open Tue 4/7/20 6:30am PT. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-04-07; judged wrong by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-07.
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SPY will be no lower than 250 for the rest of this week (Mon 4/6/20 4pm PT – Fri 4/10/20 1pm PT market close). ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-04-10; judged right by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-11.
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SPY will stay below 270 this week (before 1pm PT close on Friday 4/6/20) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-04-10; judged wrong by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-11.
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Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in any country (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-02-22.