Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by akarlin on 2021-01-01.
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Trump will win the election ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by 4dahalibut on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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TSLA to split stocks by end of 2020 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azatris on 2020-06-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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North Korea floats leaflets over the border to South Korea ( 58% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-08.
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An Immunitor vaccine clinical trial will actually take place in more than 20 people. ( 7% confidence )
Created by katriel on 2020-06-22; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by katriel on 2021-07-01.
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Will Andrzej Duda be reelected as a president of Poland? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Polish_presidential_election ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michal_Dubrawski on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by Michal_Dubrawski on 2020-07-13.
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Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01.
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Boston will have its warmest July ever in 2020 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2023-03-13.
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Joe Biden will pick Stacey Abrams as his running mate. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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The Washington Post, unlike other newspapers, will expand parts of its newsroom ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-06-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-26.
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By June 2022, I judge that Human Challenge Trials are attributable to making the date I personally get a COVID-19 vaccine earlier than it otherwise would've been without Human Challenge Trials ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-20; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2022-06-06.
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Politics, US – Geoffrey Berman, the US Attorney in Manhattan, resigns or is fired by the end of July 2020. ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21.
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Tech – Apple announces that iOS 14 or iPadOS 14 will contain the ability to change the default email app and/or default browser during WWDC 2020. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Tech – Apple announces a version of Xcode for at least some devices running iOS or iPadOS during WWDC. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Tech – Apple announces at least one new smart speaker model whose price is below $299 during WWDC. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-30.
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Tech – Apple announces an ARM-based device running macOS for launch in 2020 at WWDC 2020. ( 13% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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gwern will get married by 2090 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-20; known on 2090-01-01.
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Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by Deepak on 2021-04-20.
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Vote on Russian constitutional amendment on July 1 to get more than 65% support ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2020-07-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-03.
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Russia's GDP will decline by more than 10% this year #coronavirus , https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1240818241502658566 (duplicating March 20 bet) ( 50% confidence )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-03-15.
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This year 2020 will be warmest on record (duplicating PredictIt bet from this Jan, odds there now at 50%) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-01-15; judged right by akarlin on 2021-01-17.
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Biden wins in 2020 US elections (just ticking off boring politics things) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2020-11-15; judged right by akarlin on 2020-11-15.
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Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, see https://www.unz.com/akarlin/poland-will-legalize-gay-marriage-within-10-years/ ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2030-01-01.
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World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-15; known on 2027-04-02.
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Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-15; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-08-12.
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Twitter to finally allow ppl to autoorganize tweets into folders by 2040 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-15; known on 2041-01-01.
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easy autotranscriptions of mp3's into text files will become commonplace by 2035 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-15; known on 2036-01-01.
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The picture of the penis-shaped Christian Science church in Dixon (IL) with the bursting water pipe is doctored. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2020-06-14; known on 2020-06-14; judged right by Leo on 2020-06-14.
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Texas's daily new confirmed COVID cases will be >=8000 as of July 11, 2020, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9be2zJ). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-13; known on 2020-07-11; judged right by krazemon on 2020-07-11.
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Florida's daily new COVID cases count will be >=7500, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9XhcYm), on July 11, 2020. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-13; known on 2020-07-11; judged right by krazemon on 2020-07-11.
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Arizona's daily new COVID cases count will be >=6000, as measured by Google's tracker: https://g.co/kgs/8UHaz1, on July 11, 2020. ( 75% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-13; known on 2020-07-11; judged wrong by krazemon on 2020-07-11.
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At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by amrav on 2020-06-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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A COVID-19 vaccine will be made available to the general populace in August, 2021. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jim_P on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by qznc on 2021-09-01.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Stephanie ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-19.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Kevin ( 30% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-12.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Bryan ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-19.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Melissa ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged right by Deepak on 2020-06-19.
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Democrats hold House in 2020 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-01-10; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-07.
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By the end of 2020, there is no implementation of Scottish indyref2 ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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Germanys GDP (BIP) decreases by at least 4% in 2020 (like in 2009 finance crisis) ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-10; known on 2021-01-04; judged right by qznc on 2021-04-18.
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Germanys unemployment rate will be above 5.6% at the end of 2020 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-10; known on 2021-01-04; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-02-21.
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still living in chicago on Aug 1 ( 70% confidence )
Created by joshuabecker on 2020-06-10; known on 2020-08-01.
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First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ( 31% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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By January 1. 2026, proven exists a function f(x) such that 1) x log x = o(f(x)) 2) if N is an odd perfect number with k distinct prime factors, then log N > f(k). ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2026-01-02.
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Cal Newport changes his name to something that doesn't sound like a state, a cigarette, or a beach. ( 5% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Germany RKI reports more than 1000 CoViD-19 cases on a day within the next month ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-08; known on 2020-07-08; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-07-11.
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By June 8, 2022, estimated US deaths for COVID-19 based on excess mortality will be less than 5 million deaths. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-07; known on 2022-06-15.
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German Corona warning app goes live in June ( 70% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-07; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-06-21.
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Cal Newport's next book will be about applying lean manufacturing concepts to knowledge work (either main theme or one of the top ideas) ( 75% confidence )
Created by sortega on 2020-06-07; known on 2021-05-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-03-12.
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At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-06; known on 2049-12-31.
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Portugal – countrywide COVID-19 vaccination campaign has started by the end of 2020 ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LouisLC on 2020-06-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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2021 Portuguese presidential election – Abstention higher than 50% ( 60% confidence )
Created by LouisLC on 2020-06-06; known on 2021-01-25; judged right by LouisLC on 2021-01-26.
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Politics, US – Officers placed on unpaid leave in Buffalo, in relation to the hospitalisation of a 75-year old man, are criminally charged in relation to this action by end of June. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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COVID – Worldwide daily deaths for a day in June exceed 5800. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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COVID, US – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 1600. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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COVID, UK – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 400. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-02.
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Will John Goodenough hit age 100? ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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US will have one of the hottest 3 summers in Summer 2020 ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-10-01.
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Politics, US – Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-05; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.
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Will Issa Rice become a wizard? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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Will Adam D'Angelo become a father? ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.
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Will Sirocco the kakapo become a father? ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.
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Will Sirocco the kakapo die before 2030? ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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Ralph Nader will hit age 100 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2035-01-01.
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There will be more kakapo in 2030 than in 2020 ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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Jimmy Carter to become a centenarian ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known in 9 days.
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Tezos to surpass Ada/Cardano in marketcap at end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2024-01-01.
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Harvard to reopen for fall 2020 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-08-01.
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Will Columbia University resume in-person classes for Fall 2020? ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him. ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-04; known on 2020-11-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027. (Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.) ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-03; known on 2027-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09.
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Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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Ada/Cardano to go above $1 by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2026-01-01.
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Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Each of {Trump, Biden} will be president in at least one branch of the multiverse. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-06-01; known on 2100-01-01.
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Conditional on visiting Russia, there will be a single day during my visit that I will consider better than my day in Vienna (during my 2019 visit). ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2023-01-13.
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Conditional on visiting Russia, I will like it better than the United Kingdom. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05; judged right by Issa Rice on 2023-01-13.
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I will visit Russia by December 31, 2022 (“visit” includes both short visits and moving there). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05; judged right by Issa Rice on 2023-01-13.
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Personal, Productivity – I exercise by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-31; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-31.
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Politics, US – Section 215 of the Patriot Act renewed by end of June 2020. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-03.
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Politics, US – An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith, and the FCC does so, prior to the start of November 2020 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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Politics, US – One or more police officers arrested or has a case brought to a grand jury in connection with death of George Floyd by end of June 2020. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-29.
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Politics, US – US changes export control regulations to treat Hong Kong equivalently to mainland China before end of June 2020. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-03.
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Politics, US – US removes all privileges afforded Hong Kong by the United-States Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 before end of June 2020. ( 8% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-03.
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Politics, UK – Dominic Cummings resigns or is fired from their job, or changes position or title, before end of June 2020. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2025-12-31.
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Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-10-22; judged wrong by Mathieu_Putz on 2021-03-21.
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Hackerone will paid out $1 billion on the 23th of May, 2025 ( 80% confidence )
Created by smodnix on 2020-05-28; known on 2025-05-23.
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The car outside is my papa john’s delivery ( 70% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-05-28; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-28.
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It'll all be over by Christmas (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 30% confidence )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2020-05-27; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Kev will still be working here on 27th May, 2022 ( 100% confidence )
Created by gurgus on 2020-05-27; known on 2022-05-27; judged wrong by gurgus on 2021-07-19.
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Las Vegas casinos will be closed at some point in 2020 due to a second wave of the coronavirus ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by NickN on 2020-08-16.