Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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[Trump ] recovers and looses ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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[Trump ] recovers and wins ( 31% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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[Trump ] dies ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by finback on 2020-11-06.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-09-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Fight by end of camping ( 35% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-09-28; known on 2020-10-10; judged right by LukeS on 2020-10-11.
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Personal – I weigh in below 62kg before end of 2020-10-15. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-16.
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Politics, UK – Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Supreme Court Nomination seen through before Pres election. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2020-09-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by LukeS on 2020-10-28.
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The Swiss limitation initiative will fail ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-26; known on 2020-09-28; judged right by Deepak on 2020-09-27.
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I will weigh 205 or more in the morning ( 75% confidence )
Created by pdf on 2020-09-25; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by pdf on 2021-02-22.
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At least one card from Temur Adventures will be banned as of next Friday. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2020-09-25; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2020-10-05.
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https://appfairness.org or a similar campaign gets Apple to either lower their fee or pull their own apps from the store ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by grin on 2020-09-24; known on 2021-09-24; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-27.
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Stripe has an IPO before 3/1/22 ( 67% confidence )
Created by finback on 2020-09-24; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by finback on 2022-03-02.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-09-24; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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My poker money will be positive by the end of October ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by fandangos on 2020-09-22; known on 2020-10-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-11-01.
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Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-09-21; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-11-09.
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Basement construction will be finished by Oct 2 EOD ( 55% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-21; known on 2020-10-03; judged wrong by grin on 2020-10-05.
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VW.OS is canceled or sold+renamed in 5 years ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-09-21; known on 2025-09-20.
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Politics, Thailand – Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha resigns before the end of 2020. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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COVID, UK – Pubs have restricted opening hours (including but not requiring full closure), at the national level, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently lifted. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-19; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024 ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-09-18; known on 2024-05-01.
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-04.
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9252916 Liposarkom ( 60% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2020-09-15; known on 2020-09-22.
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Politics, US – Over 38% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-13; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, US – Over 28% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-13; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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COVID, Europe/USA – Whithin 4 weeks, there will be more new infections per day in Europe than in the US. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-09-12; known on 2020-10-12.
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P posts his podcast to lbry ( 65% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by grin on 2020-11-10.
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Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Liging on 2020-11-15.
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If a second civil war starts/continues in the USA, and Republicans and Democrats are opposing belligerents, out of possibly more belligerents, Australia will fight on the side of Republicans. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2040-12-31.
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PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Texas will secede by 31 December 2030. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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California will secede by 31 December 2030. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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nike was founded in 1970s ( 40% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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there are 8 harry porter main timeline movies. (i guess 7th one was separated into 2 movies.) ( 70% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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richard branson own virgin airways? ( 20% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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what is femer? maybe in the head part? ( 1% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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there are 80~100 pyramids of giza. ( 20% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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ozone has 3 oxyzens in it ( 100% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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corvette was introduced in 1970s ( 10% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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adventure of sherlock homles was written by conan doyle ( 49% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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old man and the sea was written by Hemingway ( 50% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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amazon is the longest river ( 80% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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texas is the physically largest state ( 50% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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just setting up my twttr ( 0% confidence )
Created by liamisntsure on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09.
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twitter's original name? wuphf? ( 1% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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octopus has no hearts ( 20% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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Mansour is the richest man ( 20% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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http stands for hyper text transportation protocol? ( 90% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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sean connery was playing 007 on 5 james bond movies. ( 40% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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neutron is the one which has no electric charge. ( 100% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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Jupiter ( 90% confidence )
Created by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09; judged right by JBCBTest on 2020-09-09.
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twitter will not have the ability to view “latest tweets” (chronological timeline) from the web app on june 1 2022 ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by finback on 2020-09-09; known on 2022-06-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-03.
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JCI finishes down between .5 and 1.5% ( 60% confidence )
Created by KwameA on 2020-09-08; known on 2020-09-08; judged right by KwameA on 2020-09-08.
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I will judge my decision to pay for wop+ to be a good investment in 18 months ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by grin on 2020-09-07; known on 2022-03-07.
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I will judge my decision to pay for wop+ to be a good investment in 6 months ( 69% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-07; known on 2021-03-07; judged right by grin on 2021-03-12.
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Tech – OnePlus 8T launches by end of October 2020, and has a 120Hz screen. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-10-29.
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Politics, UK – Extinction Rebellion as an organisation is classified as an organised crime or terrorism group on any government list, proscribed, or otherwise legally restricted in a manner not extending to other organisations by end of Oct. ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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Politics, UK – Extinction Rebellion as an organisation is classified as an organised crime or terrorism group on any government list, proscribed, or otherwise legally restricted in a manner not extending to other organisations by end of Sep. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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OSU is online only by 1 November ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-11-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-02.
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OSU is online only by 28 September ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-09-29; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-29.
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OSU is online only by 8 September ( 15% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-11.
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Law enforcement in the USA is/has been pressuring ISPs to secretly configure router settings to spy on suspects ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-09-04; known on 2026-01-01.
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COVID, UK – On any day in September 2020, there are 2000 recorded new cases of COVID-19 in the UK. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-09-27.
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I'll finish my webcam teleprompter and use it on at least one full call in September ( 73% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by grin on 2020-10-01.
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Basement construction will be finished by Sept 18 EOD ( 55% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-09-19; judged wrong by grin on 2020-09-19.
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Basement construction will be finished by Sept 25 EOD ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by grin on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-09-26; judged wrong by grin on 2020-09-26.
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Created by gmcculley on 2020-09-03; known on 2021-03-01; judged right by gmcculley on 2021-09-30.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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Toby Ord comments on my post to clarify what he actually believes ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-10-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2020-10-03.
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North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13; judged wrong by limbo on 2022-08-13.
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I will make at least 30 predictions in september ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by grin on 2020-09-02; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by grin on 2020-10-01.
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I will send my newsletter on time ( 95% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-02; known on 2020-09-02; judged right by grin on 2020-09-03.
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UK schools will close again due a significant rise in COVID cases by 15th Oct 2020 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-09-01; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-10-16.
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A COVID-19 vaccine will be generally available in the UK by March 2021 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-09-01; known on 2021-03-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-03-15.
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Climate change refugees will polarise America and lead to mass protests followed by a proto fascist government by 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by product on 2020-09-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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No one in my extended family will test positive for COVID && be hospitalized in September ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-09-01; known on 2020-09-30; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-30.
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I won't catch COVID by the end of September or believe reasonably likely (say, >= 20%) that I did ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-09-01; known on 2020-09-30; judged right by fandangos on 2020-10-01.
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starlink has a public beta available before december 15 2020 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-31; known on 2020-12-15; judged right by finback on 2020-12-15.
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Mitt Romney will endorse Joe Biden before the 2020 election ( 34% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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[Regardless of who is president] Confidence in democracy will continue dropping (as measured by FOA and Pew). ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[Regardless of who is president] The presidential nominee will have a beginning approval rating lower than 57% ( 68% confidence )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31.
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[Regardless of who is president] There will be riots and/or civil unrest in the US, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots in the next four years. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged unknown by gwern on 2020-09-05.
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Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2025-12-31.
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[Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not dis discovered within the next four years] Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not discovered within the next four years ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2025-12-31.
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Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045 ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30; known on 2045-08-30.
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SpaceX Crew-1 will dock with the ISS before November 1 2020 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.
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The US Census Bureau will find that San Francisco has a population of over 860,000 ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-27; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by finback on 2021-10-29.
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California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-08-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Tech – A fix or workaround for MSFS SimConnect performance issues is available by end of August 2020. ( 28% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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COVID, UK – Pubs are closed again, in Edinburgh, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently reopened. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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COVID, UK – Pubs are closed again, at the national level, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently reopened. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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Tech – A version update, such that the titlebar version ceases to be 1.7.12.0, is released for MSFS before end of the 30th of August. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.
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The IUCN will report >=9000 critically endangered species as of march 1 2025 (currently ~6800) ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-21; known on 2025-03-01.
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>1000 sq. mi of currently-Canadian land is under US sovereignty as of july 4 2028 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by finback on 2020-08-21; known on 2028-07-04.
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COVID, Germany – COVID death counts will go up whithin 8 weeks (Karl Lauterbach on Twitter) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-20; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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a new world record in the men's 5000 meters will be set between now and 2025-08-01: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5000_metres_world_record_progression ( 33% confidence )
Created by finback on 2020-08-20; known on 2025-08-01.
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at least one of my housemates will catch covid-19 in the next two weeks ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-09-03.