PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Joe Biden will win the election in 2020 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by shutterspeed on 2020-07-26; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.

COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 for any day in August 2020. ( 15% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.

COVID, US – Daily deaths exceed 2000 for any day in August 2020. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.

Tech – Garmin confirms that its outage during July 2020 was the result of ransomware or malware more broadly by the end of August 2020. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-16.

Donald Trump will die within five years. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.

Joe Biden will die within five years. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.

George Floyd will be Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.

Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020 ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-01.

More prospective hires apply on 2020-07-25 than 2020-07-24 (relative to Chicago time) ( 80% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-26; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-07-26.

I will have finished >= half the content for the A. test by the end of August ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I will take the A. test in October ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by fandangos on 2020-10-23.

I'll take the GRE before October AND get a grade of at least 320 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-09-30; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-30.

I'll not play live poker until the end of July ( 95% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.

Until the end of the month, the balances in the betting game I'm playing with Vt. will not go beyond 150/50 either way ( 60% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.

Bk. will have answered my message by the end of the month ( 60% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-07-30.

Somehow today I will get this network to have < .3 error ( 80% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-07-25.

I will let the network train for 300 epochs and by the end of them it'll not have achieved < .3 error ( 60% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-07-24.

I go to grad school next year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2021-03-16; judged right by fandangos on 2021-12-16.

Jair Bolsonaro not impeached until the end of his mandate ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2022-12-16.

I will see my grandmother in person this year ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged right by fandangos on 2021-02-01.

I will see my sister in person this year ( 75% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.

I will publish a paper this year ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.

My bachelor thesis will be done in time – even if they make some accomodations for me ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-15; judged right by fandangos on 2021-12-16.

I will be able to do at least 1 set of 3 push-ups (horizontally on the floor) by the end of August ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I will not be able to do a single chin-up starting from the bottom by th end of August ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I will have met someone in person from Tinder by the end of August ( 80% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-07-27.

I will not meet anyone from Tinder in person in July ( 70% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-07-27.

I will not have finished reading Superforecasting by the end of July ( 80% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.

I will not have published more than 2 new blog posts by the end of August ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

Before the end of August, I will have bought contracts in a prediction market ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I will graduate in the end of the year ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.

I will start some internship at the latest in October ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-10-10; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-11-01.

Conditioned on me playing at least 2000 hands, I will be a losing poker player by the end of August ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.

I will end up opening that business with my teacher before the end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2022-12-31.

If I train all the 1000 epochs, the neural net will achieve < 0.5 training loss at some point ( 97% confidence )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by fandangos on 2020-07-24.

Kim Kardashian and Kanye West will separate within two years. ( 67% confidence )

Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-23; known on 2022-07-23; judged right by JohnGreer on 2021-02-20.

For sufficiently large n, BusyBeaver of n+1, is at least the square of Busy Beaver of n. Proven by Jan, 1, 2051. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-23; known on 2051-01-01.

Busy Beaver of 5 is 47,176,870 and proven by 2080. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-23; known on 2080-01-01.

Joe Biden is physically present in the Oval Office on one or more days between Jan 20, 2021-Jan 31, 2021 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-23; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by kuudes on 2021-04-01.

Bol Bol's block to 3 is the play of the night ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23; known on 2020-07-23; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23.

Startups in Depth has over 50 plays ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.

Startups in Depth has over 500 plays ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.

I get a job offer from Google ( 50% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-10-22; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-10-23.

I get a job offer from Reddit ( 30% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-09-22; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.

Reddit gives me an interview ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.

Facebook gives me an interview ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.

I pass the phone screen for Google ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-09-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-11.

Two or more people show up to the Indie Hackers meetup ( 5% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-07-23; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23.

One or more people show up to the Indie Hackers meetup ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-07-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23.

Eduardo Leite (PSDB) se candidata à presidência nas eleições de 2022. ( 65% confidence )

Created by rapinoinfeliz on 2020-07-22; known on 2022-12-01.

Jair Bolsonaro sofre impeachment antes do final de 2021 ( 45% confidence )

Created by rapinoinfeliz on 2020-07-22; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.

VR is completed by 2020 ( 95% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-07-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

SIP is completed by the end of 2020 ( 98% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-07-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

The S&P 500 is above its current (2020-07-18) level on 2021-01-01 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ayegill on 2020-07-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by azatris on 2021-01-01.

One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-18; known on 2028-01-31.

I will get a job in academia in Denmark after my PhD ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ayegill on 2020-07-16; known on 2024-01-01.

England will win the second Test against WI ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2020-07-16; known on 2020-07-21; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-20.

Jakes IO psych conference happens in April ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-16; known on 2021-04-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2021-04-16.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23851223 makes the front page within 60 minutes from now ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-15.

Immediately after Copenhagen, I will decide on a PhD. ( 1% confidence )

Created by vlad.proex on 2020-07-15; known on 2020-09-26; judged wrong by vlad.proex on 2020-09-27.

There will be a magnitude 7+ earthquake in SF bay area between 2020 and 2030 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

Will Denver even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 50.4 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Boston even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 51.5 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.

Delhi will be a relative COVID haven on Oct 10, 2020 and safe enough to go into the office and hang out with small groups ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by katriel on 2020-07-11; known on 2020-10-10; judged wrong by katriel on 2020-10-10.

In the future, a woman will be on the agenda with great scientific research, and this case will affect female software developers in a good way. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by smodnix on 2020-07-11; known on 2023-01-20.

Chen Ning Yang will die before Tsung Dao Lee ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.

In no less than ten years, there will be a new “dotcom bubble” Uber either will change drastically their business model or fail in this timeline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Athosvcc on 2020-07-10; known on 2030-01-01.

Congress will formally disestablish the reservations described in McGirt v. Oklahoma by the end of 2021 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.

Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.

England win the 3 match Test series against WI ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-07-28; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-28.

The West Indies win against England in the first Test ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-07-13; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-12.

Nous continuons la traditions des week-end en ville ( 90% confidence )

Created by Medea on 2020-07-09; known on 2025-07-09.

1186620 RCC papillär ( 90% confidence )

Created by prosti on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-07-23.

The Washington Redskins will change their name by the end of 2020. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2020-07-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-23.

Etherium price ≥ $500 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by myah on 2020-07-06; known on 2021-07-06; judged right by stepan on 2021-07-26.

Tech – OnePlus Nord's UK release price is £400 or less. ( 75% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-25.

Tech – OnePlus Nord is released by deadline and has a 90Hz refresh rate screen in all models. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-25.

Politics, US – Someone is charged in relation to car driven into protestors on Interstate 5 in Seattle on the 4th of July 2020 by end of July. ( 75% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-06.

Personal – I weigh less than 63kg by the end of July. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.

COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 on a day in July. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-08-01.

Trump to comment on Kanye's presidential bid ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-11.

COVID, US – Daily deaths exceed 900 for a day in July. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-04; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-08.

Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.

Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.

Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-31.

The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-01; known on 2021-07-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-28.

Arsenal do not lose today. ( 89% confidence )

Created by MikeMitchell on 2020-07-01; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by MikeMitchell on 2020-07-02.

[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Sarah + Jordan ( 15% confidence )

Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-07-01.

[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jim + Ralph ( 10% confidence )

Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-07-01.

[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jan + Henck ( 40% confidence )

Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-07-01.

[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Ryan + Andrew ( 35% confidence )

Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-01.

The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2022-06-29; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-12-18.

There will be a “second wave” of coronavirus (increased # of daily US deaths relative to June) visible by fall 2020. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2020-10-16; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-27.

A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-02-03.

Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 25% confidence; 20 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.

Arsenal does not lose it's game on Saturday. ( 75% confidence )

Created by MikeMitchell on 2020-06-24; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by MikeMitchell on 2020-06-25.

Telegram app will block in some countries. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by smodnix on 2020-06-24; known on 2020-10-20.

Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.

Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.

Statistics

Recent Predictions