PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged right by Deepak on 2020-08-11.

[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.

[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.

[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.

[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.

[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.

[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-02.

[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.

[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.

[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-19.

[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-19.

[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-19.

Turkey to have announced withdrawal from NATO ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-29.

[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] any other candidate ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.

[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-03-04.

[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.

[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.

[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.

[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.

[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.

[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.

[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.

[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.

[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Joe Biden ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.

WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in March 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-07; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-09.

WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in February 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-07; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-05.

WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in January 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] Cuba ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] France ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by katingand on 2021-08-09.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] the United States ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] a member of the former Soviet Union ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.

Politics: South Korea's Democratic Party (Minjoo) to retain its plurality in the National Assembly after 2020 election ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-16; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-16.

LVŽS to retain its plurality in Lithuania's parliament after 2020 election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-10-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.

Dominican Republican presidential election to return a winner in the first round ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-07-06; judged right by Cato on 2020-07-06.

Chuukese independence referendum to be held in March 2020 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-02.

[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.

[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.

[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.

[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.

[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Cory Booker ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.

[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.

[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.

[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.

[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.

[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.

[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Joe Biden ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-03.

[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.

[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.

[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.

[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.

[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.

[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.

[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.

[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.

[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.

[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.

[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Joe Biden ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-24.

[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Cory Booker ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Joe Biden ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )