PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 2 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.

[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 2 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.

[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 3 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.

[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 4 ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.

[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 5 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.

[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 6 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.

[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 7 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.

[Politics] PredictIt & FiveThirtyEight “A”-grade polls to agree on Dem frontrunner ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.

[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than -15% ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.

[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than the current rating of -10.9% ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.

[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] less than -5% ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.

[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] negative ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.

The Red Sox will win the world series. ( 75% confidence )

Created by williamsmithpennstate on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-10-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-09.

The heat death of the universe ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by hserl on 2019-07-28; known on 2100-07-16.

US Secretary of State to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.

US President to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.

Mauricio Macri will be re-elected president of Argentina. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Argentine_general_election ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Pablo on 2019-07-25; known on 2019-11-25; judged wrong by Pablo on 2019-10-29.

The Democratic Nominee for president at the end of the 2020 Primaries will not support Medicare-for-All (as distinct from 'for all who want it', 'public option', or 'Path to M4A') ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jackzilla on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-17; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.

I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-24; known on 2023-01-01.

Chinese People's Liberation Army to be (overtly) deployed to Hong Kong by 2020-01-23 ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-01-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.

[Fighting] Frank Shamrock to be in the UFC Hall of Fame as of 2020-07-23 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-27.

[Fighting] Dana White to be president of the UFC as of 2020-07-23 ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by Cato on 2020-07-27.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to have held a general election ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to be formally announced ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to have been held ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Article 50 to have been extended ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-04.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “Brexit with a deal” to have happened ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to not be a member of the European Union ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.

I will meditate for at least 1 hour (total) each month in a 1-year period before 2025 ( 70% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-22; known in 9 days.

I will have eaten lab-grown meat at least once every 2 months for one whole year (not necessarily Jan-Jan) before 2030 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-22; known on 2030-01-02.

[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] arrested within five (5) years ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.

[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.

I will own some cryptocurrency before 2027 (know the private key) ( 36% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2027-01-01; judged right by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-19.

The Alison discourse on rattumb will continue for at least a week ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by enolan on 2019-07-20; known on 2019-07-27; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-27.

The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.

I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2027-01-01.

I will finish reading HPMOR by 2022 ( 33% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-26.

I will use PredictionBook at least once a year until 2027 ( 33% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2027-01-01.

[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.

[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.

I will use PredictionBook at least once a month until Jan 2021 ( 51% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.

SHA256: 452982B513A16897FEF1AB3AF4AA3C64A78F99065D7329362C5B9ED8BB95EC08 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Somni on 2019-07-18; known on 2019-10-18.

U.S. Federal Reserve lowers interest rate below 100bps before end of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by objclone on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win more shooting medals than the USA ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most karate medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Cuba to win more wrestling medals than the USA ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] North Korea to win more weightlifting medals than the USA ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win more medals than any other country or Olympic committee ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win at least one medal in weightlifting ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan (or “Chinese Taipei”) to win at least one medal ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan to compete as “Chinese Taipei” ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.

Electric car will be charged >=90% ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-07-16; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-07-16.

[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-16; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.

Launch bookshare on ios with good design ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cliffw on 2019-07-14; known on 2019-08-14.

Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by SeriousPod on 2019-07-12; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-03-19.

Lil Nas X's debut album (not his EP) will peak at #1 on the Billboard 200 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bendini on 2019-07-12; known on 2021-07-07; judged wrong by bendini on 2022-02-11.

AlphaStar reaches GM league at some point during the research period ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-07-11; known on 2019-10-11; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-11-22.

Bugriyev Pavel says pedophilia will be normal in 5, but no more than 10 years. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ystasyuk on 2019-07-10; known on 2024-07-10.

[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women ( 10% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.

[US politics] The 2020 Democratic VP candidate to be one of the participants in the July 2019 debate ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.

Person to walk on the moon by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known on 2030-01-01.

Person to walk on the moon by 2025 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known in 9 days.

Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 Driver's Championship 2019. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by skateboard34 on 2019-07-08; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12.

Rafael Nadal will win Wimbledon 2019. ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by skateboard34 on 2019-07-08; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-15.

Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Leo on 2019-07-05; known on 2022-07-05; judged right by Leo on 2022-07-05.

Eliud Kipchoge's October 2019 “Ineos 1:59 Challenge” marathon time will be less than 2:00:00 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-07-04; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-12.

[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 5] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.

[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 3] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 20% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.

[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 2] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.

[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 1] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 40% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.

[REDACTED PROJECT D will] publish by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged unknown by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.

[REDACTED PROJECT C will] complete a cost-effectiveness analysis by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 99% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.

[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] work leading to the creation (if not completion) of an outside study by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 15% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.

[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] supplemental work started in 2018 by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 20% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.

[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] the next steps by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 95% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.

[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] the ITN framework by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.

If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.

[Fighting] Chael Sonnen to fight again by 2020-06-27 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-06-26; known on 2020-06-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-27.

[Fighting] UFC to hold a fight in France by 2020 EOY ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-06-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.

Bitcoin (BTC) touches $20,000 USD before January 1st, 2020 ( 7% confidence; 22 wagers )

Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to IDinsight's beneficiary preferences survey ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23; known on 2021-02-01.

Gold hit above $1500/oz at least once in 2019 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by objclone on 2019-08-12.

SPY return positive in year 2019 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

Gold hit above $1400/oz at least once in 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by objclone on 2019-06-23.

Fed cut rate at least 25bps in July ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-07-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-11.

Fed cut rate at least 50bps by end of 2019 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

Fed not cut rate at June FOMC meeting ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-06-19; judged right by objclone on 2019-06-20.

[Politics] Carrie Lam to resign by 2019 EOY ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-06-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

We will launch bookshare working on iOS in the next 30 days to users ( 60% confidence )

Created by Cliffw on 2019-06-14; known on 2019-07-14; judged wrong by Cliffw on 2019-07-14.

I won't deal with main project for over 2 hours tomorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-13; known on 2019-06-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-20.

[Politics] By 2019-12-14, Hong Kong government to pass law that would allow extradition to mainland PRC ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-06-13; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.

[Australian Politics] The Australian Labor Party will win the next Federal Election ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jeefy01 on 2019-06-12; known on 2022-05-30; judged right by amadeu on 2022-05-26.

There will be a new iPhone in 2019 that uses a USB-C connector instead of Lightning ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.

[Commodities] Iran to be a member of OPEC as of 2019-12-12 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-12.

U.S. Stock Market at or above current worth through the November 2020 elections (as measured by the S&P500 – $2886.73 on June 10th 2019) ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by lettergram on 2019-06-10; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by lettergram on 2020-11-05.

Statistics

Recent Predictions