Connor Leahy will publicly released his GPT-2-1.5b model by the end of July 2019. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2019-06-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-06-13.

Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.

[Fighting] Alexander Gustafsson to fight again by 2020-06-06 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-06-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.

Personal, Productivity – I complete Art of Tidying discarding before deadline. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-06-03; known on 2019-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-06-04.

Andrew Yang runs as a third party candidate ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-02.

The Brexit Party to win the most seats in the next UK General Election ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-06-02; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-25.

Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-02; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for March 2020 to exceed 110 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-04-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-23.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for April 2020 to exceed 110 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-05-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-25.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for May 2020 to exceed 110 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-06-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-22.

Chinese government to limit or tax exports of rare earths to the US by 2019-08-30 ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.

US to conduct nuclear weapons test by 2019-08-30 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.

Kim Jong Un to visit Seoul by 2019-10-01 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-28; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.

Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2019-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by quanticle on 2021-01-01.

This prediction will have fewer than five wagers ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-26; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29.

Russia will win 2019 IIHF World Championship ( 70% confidence )

Created by stepan on 2019-05-22; known on 2019-05-26; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-05-26.

IRS turns Trump's tax returns over to Congress ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

N is sent back to Russia ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-07.

Tesla stock trades below $150 on or before 2 May 2020 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2020-05-02; judged wrong by separo on 2020-05-03.

Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2022-05-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-03.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $6000/mo ( 90% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5500/mo ( 75% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5000/mo ( 60% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.

[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $4500/mo ( 20% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.

Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2019-05-17; known on 2022-05-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-17.

The UK to leave the EU without a deal on, or by, 31 October ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 1 MMbpd ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 2 MMbpd ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 3 MMbpd ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 4 MMbpd ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[Politics] US government to announce ban on Chinese messaging, ecommerce, or web service such as WeChat, JD, Alibaba, Made-in-China, or Baidu as part of trade dispute—including conditional or postponed bans ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-05-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.

[Commodities] Venezuela will produce 0 crude oil in at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Other ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Jay Inslee ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Andrew Yang ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kirsten Gillibrand ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Julián Castro ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Cory Booker ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kamala Harris ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Bernie Sanders ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-08.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-09.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2020 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-09.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2019 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-04-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-09.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2020 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-04-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-09.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of January 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] December 2019 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of December 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2019 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-01-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-11-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2019 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-09-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-09.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-08-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-07-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.

[Politics] Iran and US to establish formal diplomatic relations by May 2020 EOM ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.