Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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Turing Testable AIs will be publicly available by 2030. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Prickman on 2020-01-07; known on 2030-01-01.
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in four months, the consensus among the national security community will be that we (i.e., the US) are not any more meaningfully said to be “at war” with Iran than we are now on 5 Jan 2020. ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-06.
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The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-01-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I clear my Anki due cards in active decks by deadline. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-05; known on 2020-01-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-11.
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Entre os dias 11 de janeiro de 2020 e 26 de dezembro de 2020, publicarei ao menos 35 edições da minha newsletter semanal ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2020-01-04; known on 2020-12-27; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-12-27.
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The African Continental Free Trade Area is operational between all countries it is legally in force for, with the treaty effectively governing all the trade its text covers ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 270 electoral votes ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 229 electoral votes ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joind by at least 4 other states ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joined by at least one other state ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are fewer than 16 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are only the current 16 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[2020s scientific advances:] a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] finding the axion ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-06-30.
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Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, small nuclear power plants (around 60MW) were “popping up” around the USA. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2032-01-01.
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China sequences 100 million people's genomes between 2026 and 2030 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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“We are confident that over 60 million patients will have their genome sequenced in a healthcare context by 2025” ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2026-05-01.
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In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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There will be a Robotaxi available somewhere ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Waymo still uses safety drivers in 10 years or closes down ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Some car company will sell SAE level 3 cars in the next 10 years. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Joe Rogan will host a presidential debate in the next ten years ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Someone sells a hoverboard by 2030 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] Britain gets a new monarch ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Greta Thunberg wins Nobel peace prize ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-10-09.
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[The Economist predicts:] Record high global average temperature is recorded by NASA ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-19.
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[The Economist predicts:] US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] United States falls into recession during the next 12 months ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] House prices fall across rich English-speaking countries ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] China wins the most gold medals at the Olympics ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] England wins Euro 2020 men's football tournament ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] 'Parasite' wins best picture at the Oscars ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-03-15.
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[The Economist predicts:] Billie Eilish wins album of the year at the Grammys ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-04-10.
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[The Economist predicts:] Christian Coleman wins men's 100 metres at the Olympics ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] Scotland's parliament votes for independence referendum ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500 ( 40% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Nicolás Maduro holds on to the presidency of Venezuela ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Climate change catastrophes cause more property damage over than 2020-2030 period than the purported $300bn USD (as reported by Time via Bloomberg, october 24, 2019) that would need to be invested to limit the worst of the effects. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kallman on 2020-01-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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I pass the Automattic chat interview ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-01-02; known on 2020-01-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-01-16.
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I will pass Italian B1 language by mid 2022 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2020-01-01; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-07-02.
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I will weight 67kg or less by EOY 2020 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2021-01-01.
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April 2020 VIX call at 65 will be in the money ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-04-30; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-05-01.
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January 2020 VIX call at 22 will be in the money ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-01-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-01-31.
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U.S. 10 year Treasury yield below 3.5% before 2025 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known in 8 days.
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S&P 500 index ends 2020 above 3500 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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Dollar index (DXY) 2020 performance is negative ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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10Y Treasury yield goes above 2% in Q1 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-03-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-04-19.
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Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known in 8 days.
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Liverpool will win the treble in 2020: FA Cup, Premier League, Champions League ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-05-31; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-06-01.
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Tesla stock (TSLA) will top $500/share some time in 2020. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-06-01.
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Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-07-09.
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Belgium has formed a federal government ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-05-26; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-05-11.
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Kosovo has <116 recognitions by sovereign states (excludes Niue and Cook Islands, includes “withdrawn” recognitions because withdrawing isn't valid) ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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I contribute a major feature to PredictionBook ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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BJP will win even the 2024 elections ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by optimaton on 2019-12-30; known on 2024-06-01.
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VC Culture will die by 2040 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by optimaton on 2019-12-30; known on 2040-01-01.
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The transition from the XOF franc to the eco will be complete in all countries currently using XOF. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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[Vikings] Bjorn is elected king of all Norway ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-02-01.
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[Vikings] Lagertha survives season 6 ( 40% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-02-01.
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Halo Infinite is released in Q4 2020 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Diablo IV is released in 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-07-01.
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Uncharted movie is released in December 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Dune movie is released in December 2020 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Avatar 2 is released in December 2021 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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A Star Wars movie is released in December 2022 ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2022-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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Apple will release a Macbook or Macbook Pro that uses a CPU designed by someone other than Intel or AMD. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-10.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-02-15.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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Federal Reserve does not reduce target Fed Fund rate in 2020 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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US Treasury 10Y yield >= 3% in 2020 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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Dave Peterson bought me an electric shaver for Christmas. ( 60% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-12-15; known on 2019-12-28; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-12-23.
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AfD will get more votes than FDP in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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SPD will get the most votes in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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Jeopardy will still be on the air in 2025. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12; known in 9 days.
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Max Verstappen will win the 2020 F1 World Championship. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-12-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-18.
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AWS will announce an ap-southeast-3 region for Western Australia, by the end of 2020 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bly on 2019-12-04; known on 2021-01-16.
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[AWS] re:invent 2020 will announce the next iteration of DeepRacer – head to head combat robot competitions (think battle bots) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bly on 2019-12-03; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-18.
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oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2019-11-30; known on 2039-11-30.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 17% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by skuthus on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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[Fighting] Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov to fight in April 2020 ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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The Netherlands will make their 2020 Urgenda climate goal ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk on 2019-11-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.