Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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[SC2] herO makes it out of Group C ( 52% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] HeRoMaRinE makes it out of Group C ( 28% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Classic makes it out of Group C ( 58% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Serral makes it out of Group B ( 95% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Stats makes it out of Group B ( 40% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] TIME makes it out of Group B ( 5% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Maru makes it out of Group B ( 60% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] SpeCial makes it out of Group A ( 34% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] soO makes it out of Group A ( 44% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] ShoWTimE makes it out of Group A ( 30% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Dark makes it out of Group A ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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The helical engine works ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2019-10-15; known in 24 days.
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All US-China trade war tariffs (imposed since June 2018) are not in effect ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-01.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] ASX 200 (now 6607) ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] Hang Seng (now 26307) ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] KOSPI (now 2049) ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] OMX Tallinn (now 1236) ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] SSI Shanghai (now 2973) ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] FTSE 100 (now 7187) ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628) ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NIKKEI 225 (now 21801) ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NSE-All Share Nigeria (now 26584) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] DJIA (now 26756) ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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Rick Perry to testify publicly before a committee in Congress as part of impeachment inquiry ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-10; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-02-04.
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China publicly announces an investigation into Hunter Biden ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-04; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-09.
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There will be a shooting at a showing of Joker. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2019-10-04; known on 2019-11-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-09.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [38, 40] ( 2% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [35, 40] ( 10% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [32, 40] ( 20% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [28, 40] ( 30% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [24, 40] ( 40% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [20, 40] ( 50% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [16, 40] ( 65% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [12, 40] ( 80% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [8, 40] ( 90% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-09-29; known on 2024-09-29.
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[Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-09-29; known on 2024-09-29.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Canadian ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Australian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Japanese ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Chinese ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Norwegian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Swedish ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be British ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be French ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] No winner to be American ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be American ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] More than one winner ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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I could finish a 1L bottle of water in 30 seconds or less. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-09-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26.
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AHQ will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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IG will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Gigabyte Marines will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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J-Team will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Griffin will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 40% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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C9 will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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RNG will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 45% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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SKT will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 65% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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FunPlus Phoenix will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Fnatic will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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G2 will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Team Liquid will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 20 or more ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 19 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 18 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 17 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 16 ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 15 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 14 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 13 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-06.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 12 ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 11 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 10 or fewer ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK out of EU ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 24% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 3 or fewer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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Scott Galloway: SEC, state AG or other regulatory body investigations into We within 60 days ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-11-21.
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Scott Galloway: SoftBank's Vision Fund will be shuttered within 12 months ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2020-09-22; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-09-24.
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Scott Galloway: Investigative journalism pieces documenting malfeasance at We within 30 days ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2019-10-22; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-11-21.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 ( 43% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-22; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 89% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-29; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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UFC, Bellator, or ONE fighters to belong to a labor union ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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US Politics: Republican nominee for Vice President to be Mike Pence ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-08-27; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.