Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] February ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2020-03-10.
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Bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto will be spent by 2075-04-05 (hacks don't count). ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-24; known on 2075-04-05.
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Space mining will be profitable before 2090, conditional on no existential catastrophe or win ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2090-01-01.
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A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2057-01-01.
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A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2051-01-01.
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The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2044-01-01.
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The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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EIther Trump or Sanders will be president, and it won't change my life at all. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ntrueman on 2020-02-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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I will weigh between 165-175 pounds by end of August 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by avi on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by avi on 2020-08-31.
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Politics – Turkish military forces engage in conflict with Syrian, Russian, or Syrian government-allied militia forces inside Syria by deadline. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-19.
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Politics – Seven day “reduction in violence” starting 2020-02-21 between the Taliban and US is considered to have held by both parties. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-02-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Academia, UK – Dr Jeremy Morris resigns or otherwise leaves their position as master of Trinity Hall, Cambridge by deadline. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-19.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 10/1 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-10-07.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 8/1 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-07-31.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 6/1 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-06-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 5/1 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-05-01.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 4/1 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-04-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 3/1 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-03-07.
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At 30, I will have never been married. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ejh3141 on 2020-02-20; known on 2031-02-04.
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US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-02-18; known in 9 days.
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Personal, Productivity – I will finish with IoT Assignment by 11:59 pm 15th Feb. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atharva117 on 2020-02-15; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by atharva117 on 2020-02-16.
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Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-02-14; known on 2024-01-01.
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swinging, swinging ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-03-21; judged right by playablecharacter on 2020-03-21.
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Politics, UK – Chancellor Sajid Javid is removed from their position as Chancellor by deadline. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-13.
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Politics, UK – Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is removed from their position by deadline. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.
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Politics, UK – Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.
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The “2020 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Winner?” Augur market will resolve invalid ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-03-09.
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IV and I will have dinner tonight ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-02-12; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-02-13.
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Personal – I go cycling for any length of time > 0 before deadline. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-11; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
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Weather, UK – My bus home in Edinburgh is delayed more than ten minutes compared to published arrival time, night of 2020-02-08 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.
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Weather, UK – Edinburgh Castle is closed or has reduced hours on 2020-02-09 due to weather ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.
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Sports, OWL- London Spitfire beats NY Excelsior ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
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Personal – I weigh in at 75kg or below by deadline. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-18.
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Personal – I get hold of a key to the ground floor bike storage in my apartment building by deadline. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
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Personal – My piped-in heating and hot water system is fixed by deadline. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
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Health, UK – Confirmed person to person transmission of 2019-nCoV within UK before deadline. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-29.
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Politics, UK – UK government changes its decision to permit Huawei components in non-core parts of the UK's 5G network before 2020-02 EOM. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Politics, UK – Flybe receives a loan or other transfer of money aside deferred tax payments from the UK government or agent thereof before deadline. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-02.
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Health, UK – NSFT communications manager reported to have stepped down by the BBC before deadline. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 74% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-23; known on 2020-02-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-31.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030 ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 37% confidence; 37 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-04-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50,000 ( 35% confidence; 30 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million ( 1% confidence; 34 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million ( 12% confidence; 34 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-29.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-03-20.
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There will be more than 8000 human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be reported before 2021 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-30.
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Personal, Productivity – I get through “Economic Implications Of Software Minds” by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-26.
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Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before start of 2020-01-27. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2023 (continuous between 2020 and 2023; caveat: barring major injury) ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2023-01-19; judged right by sungk2048 on 2023-01-20.
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Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known in 27 days.
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[Personal] My average fall asleep hour for 2020 will be 2:00 am or earlier ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sungk2048 on 2021-11-10.
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[Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known in 27 days.
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California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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The Senate trial for Trump’s impeachment will have at least one witness give testimony (public or private) in 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-02-04.
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Tech – Charter delays shutdown of its home security service beyond 2020-02-05. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-10.
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Politics, UK – Big Ben rings on the 31st of January or 1st of February, London Time. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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Business, UK – Ryanair sues the UK government in relation to agreements between the UK government and Flybe before deadline. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-18; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-28.
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Tech – SpaceX successfully completes emergency crew rescue test before deadline. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-19.
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Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-05.
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Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17; known in 10 days.
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[Personal] I will be underconfident across the past 6 personal predictions ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[Personal] At the end of 2020, Dominion online will still be around, have the same rating system, and my rating will be at least 62 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-29.
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[Personal] According to the Waking Up app, I'll have spent at least 2000 minutes meditating in the rest of 2020. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-08-03.
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[Personal] I'll finish my LW sequence on Machine Learning with 1 post per week (end of Sunday CET) without ever being late ( 50% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-03-08.
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[Personal] My favorite album, movie, and TV show will all be the same at the end of 2020 as they are now. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[Personal] I'll still take Melatonin daily at the end of 2020 (remains true if I forget it <0.05 of the time) ( 95% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-29.
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[Personal] I'll work out at least twice on every day from now on till the end of 2020. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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There will be a 4x GM in Kaggle in 2020 ( 20% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%). ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04.
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Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Trump meets with Kim in 2020 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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The states (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact have less combined electoral votes at the end of 2020 than they did in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament tonight ( 45% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-01-15; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15.
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Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-01-22; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15.
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A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-07.
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Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before 2020-01-18 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-19.
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Personal – I weigh in at below 80kg on or before 2020-01-25. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-26; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-21.
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Personal – I manage to find a way to store my bike at ground level, short of the stairwell, before start of 2020-02-01 ( 55% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-01.
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Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-25 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-18 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-18; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-18.
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Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02 ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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Waymo offers rides to the airport this year. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-12-30; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Personal – I weigh in at or below 70kg at least once before start of 2020-07-01. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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[Personal] I will read at least 16 books in 2020 Q1 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[Personal] I will read at least 32 books in 2020 H1 ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-29.
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[Personal] I will read at least 48 books in 2020 Q1-Q3 ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.