Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 0 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 21 to 30 ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 11 to 20 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 1 to 10 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 0 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 21 to 30 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 11 to 20 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 1 to 10 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 0 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 21 to 30 ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 11 to 20 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 1 to 10 ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-11.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 0 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 31 to 40 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 21 to 30 ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 11 to 20 ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 1 to 10 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 0 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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My November 2020 self will think Brexit is on net bad (ALL things considered) ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-20; known on 2020-11-20.
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Vice President Mike Pence to make any public comment regarding the impeachment hearings ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-18; known on 2019-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-12-11.
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PLA to use force against protesters in Hong Kong before 2020-01-01 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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I will learn about predictions ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tanya_21@hotmail.com on 2019-11-18; known on 2019-11-17; judged right by Tanya_21@hotmail.com on 2019-11-18.
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If I ever understand monetary policy properly, I’ll think that Scott Sumner is basically right about NGDP targeting etc ( 80% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-17; known on 2020-11-17.
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Additional predictions appear, written in Spanish. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-12; known on 2019-12-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-12-08.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura ( 43% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-08-04.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años ( 40% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-14.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by sortega on 2020-12-31.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PP+Vox+Ciudadanos+NA+ ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP sin indepes ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP e indepes ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del PPSOE ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por ninguno de los anteriores (independiente, Teruel Existe…) ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por Podemos ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PP ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PSOE ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se repetiran sin formar gobierno ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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In ten days, we will still live on the farm. ( 100% confidence )
Created by MatrixJedi on 2019-11-11; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by MatrixJedi on 2019-11-21.
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President Trump will win the 2020 Election. ( 54% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meganwhalen20 on 2019-11-11; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[Cato: The number of predictions in December 2019 by Cato to be exactly] 13 or more ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-07.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 or fewer ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Trap ( 2% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] soO ( 3% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Classic ( 4% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Dark ( 6% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Rogue ( 8% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Reynor ( 12% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Maru ( 18% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Serral ( 47% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Alexandra of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-26; known on 2101-01-02.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against someone else ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Georges St-Pierre ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-21.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Frankie Edgar ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Tony Ferguson ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Khabib Numagomedov ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Jorge Masvidal ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Nate Diaz ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Justin Gaethje ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Donald Cerrone ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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PG&E blackouts resume before the end of this week ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-22; known on 2019-10-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-24.
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Bitcoin's price will be above $10,000 on May 1, 2020 (at midnight). ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2019-10-20; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2020-05-01.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Matt Buco ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Batfoy ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Harry Hong ( 50% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Svavar ( 20% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Jani ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] DanQZ ( 75% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 18 ( 10% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.
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[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 15 ( 30% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.
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[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 12 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.
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[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 8 ( 90% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.
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The Senate to vote on impeachment of the 45th president before the end of June 2020 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-19; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-02-04.
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The lowest qualifying score for entry into the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be above 700000 points ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Koryan ( 75% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Greentea ( 80% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Joseph Saelee ( 90% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Jonas Neubauer ( 90% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Greentea ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] someone who has never won a Classic Tetris World Championship before ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-21.
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[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Joseph Saelee ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-21.
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[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Jonas Neubauer ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[SC2] Reynor makes it out of Group C ( 62% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.