PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11501	16048	16520	17216	30929	7968	100182

Recent Predictions

Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.
DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Macarena/Viviana ( 20% confidence )

Created by pancakemouse on 2021-12-08; known on 2021-12-09; judged right by pancakemouse on 2021-12-12.
A bill to legalise Marijuana is passed in France before the end of June ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-08; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-07-05.
I will visit Colombia in July ( 80% confidence )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-07-16.
Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
employer will approve my request to stay remote indefinitely ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01.
My paper will not get a flat rejection ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-03-15.
Conditional on vaccine mandates being enacted, my sister will get vaccinated by end of 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-05; known 29 days ago.
germany announces lockdown for everyone before the 15 of January 2022 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-01-18.
I visit California in December. ( 85% confidence )

Created by giljuand on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-01-16; judged wrong by giljuand on 2022-01-16.
French government announces lockdown for unvaccinated before end of January (for non-essential shops) ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-04; known on 2022-01-31; judged wrong by Andref2015 on 2022-03-31.
The next German president (Bundespräsident) is female (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_German_presidential_election) ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by M on 2022-02-17.
It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2022 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by M on 2021-11-30; known 29 days ago; judged wrong by M 28 days ago.
ĐỖ DUY HOÀ / VDUH^2100101752 u máu gan trái ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-23; known on 2021-12-14; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
NGUYỄN HÀ CHI / VDUH^2100101709 u sau PM: nang ruột đôi ( 30% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-23; known on 2021-12-14; judged right by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
arriverà a 25.000 followers il 17 maggio ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Luca on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-05-17.
In a year, I will not regret getting into defi ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by claerity on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-11-23; judged unknown by claerity on 2022-11-23.
I predict that I will not get an interview with HSS within 40 days ( 70% confidence )

Created by waldo2525 on 2021-11-22; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by waldo2525 on 2022-01-19.
TRIỆU TIẾN THẮNG / VDUH^2100098785 ổ tụ máu hố sau, theo dõi do carvenoma. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-18; known on 2021-12-09; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
HÀ THỊ VÂN / VDUH^2100098224 T2 mismatch sign => diffuse astrocytoma ( 75% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-11-18; known on 2021-12-09; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
I will have a job before 250 applications ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by waldo2525 on 2021-11-15; known on 2022-11-15; judged wrong by waldo2525 on 2022-04-06.
[IFComp 2021] <4 of the top 10 scoring games are in my personal top 10 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
[IFComp 2021] A game I have voted on will win ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-11-21.
[IFComp 2021] “Universal Hologram” will have the highest score stdev ( 40% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
[IFComp 2021] “Universal Hologram” will have a score stdev > 2 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
[IFComp 2021] “Grandma Bethlinda's Remarkable Egg” will win ( 5% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
[IFComp 2021] “The Golden Heist” will win ( 20% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
[IFComp 2021] “Fine Felines” will win ( 20% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
[IFComp 2021] “And Then You Come to a House Not Unlike the Previous One” will win ( 25% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-11-21.
I will write a (unpublished) blog post about the insights I got from https://www.conradbastable.com/essays/the-full-stack-of-society-can-you-make-a-whole-society-wealthier-full-version and from Bret Devereaux's writing sometime in the next week. ( 60% confidence )

Created by SamBuckman on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by SamBuckman on 2021-11-23.
The user 8 will not complete his APL project. ( 100% confidence )

Created by bingbingwahoo on 2021-11-12; known on 2030-11-10.
The user 8 will not write a single line of APL code that is relevant to his project. ( 99% confidence )

Created by bingbingwahoo on 2021-11-12; known on 2022-11-10.
The steelers will win the superbowl ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Nate13195 on 2021-11-10; known on 2022-02-15; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-18.
Kyle Rittenhouse will be acquitted of count 6 (gun possession by minor) ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-10; known on 2021-12-15; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-19.
Kyle Rittenhouse will be acquitted of count 4 (attempted first degree intentional homicide of Gaige P. Grosskreutz) ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-09; known on 2021-12-15; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-19.
Trump reelected in 2024. ( 32% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.
I will complete and publish the scout mindset review by 2021-12-01 ( 10% confidence )

Created by blin on 2021-11-07; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by blin on 2021-12-02.
The cure for cancer will be released to the world. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by amandopando805 on 2021-11-06; known on 2031-11-06.
I will have submitted the syntax-semantics interface paper by the end of 2021 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tot on 2022-01-02.
China will enter a recession within the next 5 years ( 8% confidence )

Created by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02; known on 2026-11-16.
I will successfully commit suicide in the next 10 years ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02; known on 2031-11-16.
More people will get born in Russia in year 2040 than in Russia in year 2037 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kuudes on 2021-10-27; known on 2045-01-01.
PHẠM VĂN HƯNG / VDUH^2100087891 Hình ảnh u não trán thái dương thùy đảo phải ôm quanh ĐM não giữa và đè đẩy các bó sợi như mô tả, nghĩ tới u thần kinh đệm bậc III. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26; known on 2021-11-09; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
TRIEU NHU HOC 58T / 2100087098 Hình ảnh khối tổn thương thùy trán hai bên như mô tả, nghĩ tới u não chảy máu (chưa loại trừ GBM). ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26; known on 2021-11-09; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
NGUYỄN QUỐC VIỆT / VDUH^2100087817 Hình ảnh u não trán trái nghĩ tới ependymoma. Nốt tín hiệu tổ chức ngấm thuốc trong xương đỉnh phải sát diện khớp đỉnh chẩm. Tụ dịch trong xoang hàm trái. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26; known on 2021-11-09; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
Patient Name / ID : NGUYỄN THỊ VIÊN / VDUH^2100085718 Hình ảnh nghĩ đến lymphoma lồi thể chai. Các hạt màng nhện trong xoang tĩnh mạch dọc trên. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26; known on 2021-11-09; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
LÊ THỊ THANH HÀ / VDUH^2100087606 Hình ảnh u góc cầu phải hướng đến Hemangioblastoma. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26; known on 2021-11-09; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
0xB4DC0D3C will invite and meet cloe in Venice in 2025 and it will be great! 😃 ( 100% confidence )

Created by 0xB4DC0D3C on 2021-10-25; known on 2021-10-25.
0xB4DC0D3C will invite and meet cloe in Venice in 2025 and it will be great! ( 100% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-25; known on 2021-10-25.
3:4 people will apply to be board members in EA ( 80% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-12-10; judged right by larrison23 on 2022-03-15.
20:25 points will separate the top 2 drivers in the formula one championship ( 80% confidence )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-12-12; judged wrong by larrison23 on 2021-12-12.
3.4:3.8 GPA at the end of the semester ( 80% confidence )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-12-24; judged right by larrison23 on 2022-03-15.
3:4 people will quit crew before the spring trip ( 80% confidence )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2022-03-15; judged right by larrison23 on 2022-03-15.
8:12 Head of the Charles 1v placement ( 80% confidence )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-10-24; judged right by larrison23 on 2021-10-24.
Fewer than 75 people participate in Protect the People's Haiti H-2A program in 2016 ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2021-10-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2021-10-17.
Personal – I scan all documents in my intray to be scanned by deadline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-10-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
This semester, I will have the time to talk object programming in the introduction to Python class. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-10-13; known on 2021-12-20; judged wrong by Tot on 2021-12-20.
Master Chief from Halo is the final smash character ( 20% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-10-05; known on 2021-10-05; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
Sora from Kingdom Hearts is the final smash character ( 33% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-10-05; known on 2021-10-05; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
I'll have an income of 4000+/month before March of 2022, ( 53% confidence )

Created by okayspm on 2021-10-05; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by okayspm on 2022-04-02.
Lula will be elected Brazil's next president in 2022. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by okayspm on 2021-10-04; known on 2022-12-11.
[Next Coalition in Germany:] Other ( 1% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-12-06.
[Next Coalition in Germany:] SPD+CDU/CSU ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-12-06.
[Next Coalition in Germany:] CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-12-06.
[Next Coalition in Germany:] SPD+Greens+FDP ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2021-12-06.
The total number of deaths in Florida for the week ending October 2, 2021 (as reported at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) will exceed 5,000. ( 90% confidence )

Created by gmcculley on 2021-09-30; known on 2021-12-01.
US will default on debt by the end of October 2021 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-09-29; known on 2021-11-01; judged unknown by lnfinity on 2021-10-16.
vu thi phuong 72 nguyen thi dau tổn thương phù lan tỏa đốt sống, giảm tín hiệu toàn bộ trên t1=> bệnh tạo máu ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-28; known on 2021-10-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
ngô quang vinh 51 UMN? ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-27; known on 2021-10-04; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
CÙ THỊ THU HƯƠNG / VDUH^2100084212 u tụy? ( 30% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-27; known on 2021-10-18; judged right by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
There will be no more lockdown due to Covid in Paris before the end of 2022. ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-27; known 28 days ago; judged right by Tot 27 days ago.
Every member of the 30 person group of which I am thinking will achieve goal X in the next nine months ( 97% confidence )

Created by DiegoDuarte on 2021-09-25; known on 2022-06-30.
ĐẶNG ĐÌNH LỘC / VDUH^2100082834 Hình ảnh khối hỗn hợp tủy cổ cao và thân não gây giãn hệ thống não thất và gây rỗng tủy, theo dõi ependymoma. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-24; known on 2021-10-08; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
At least one large website (alexa 10k) or fortune-500 company's services will be disrupted by the Y38 problem ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-22; known on 2038-01-21.
Vaccinated Canberrans will not be permitted to go camping at NSW national park campgrounds and return to the ACT without quarantining until after 24 November ( 85% confidence )

Created by samcoggins55@gmail.com on 2021-09-22; known on 2021-11-24.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon fera un meilleur score aux élections présidentielles de 2022 qu'à celles de 2017. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-21; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-04-18.
More than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 will be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict. ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ihavenoahidea on 2021-09-20; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by ihavenoahidea on 2022-01-01.
Éric Zemmour ne se présentera pas ou n'atteindra pas 5% au premier tour des élections présidentielles de 2022. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-20; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by Tot on 2022-04-18.
By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11? ( 79% confidence )

Created by ihavenoahidea on 2021-09-20; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by ihavenoahidea on 2021-11-01.
I am within 10 miles of Cambridge on Monday, Sep 27. ( 70% confidence )

Created by giljuand on 2021-09-19; known on 2021-09-28; judged right by giljuand on 2021-09-28.
Je vais aller acheter un caleçon Slip français à Clément pour son anniversaire et il en sera très content. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-17; known on 2021-09-26; judged right by Tot on 2021-09-27.
VŨ THÀNH BỐN / VDUH^2100081249 HB ( 60% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-16; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
PHẠM NHỊ HÀ / VDUH^2100081233 Lạc NMTC ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-16; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
bùi thị hồng 66 u gan phải/ xơ gan/ thứ phát ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-16; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
TRỊNH ĐĂNG DỤ / VDUH^2100080572 u trực tràng cao T2N0Mx ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-16; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
NGUYỄN THỊ HÀ / VDUH^2100081160 High grade oligo ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-16; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
NGÔ QUANG VINH / VDUH^2100080255 u màng não Meckel xoang hang trái ( 70% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-16; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
More than 400 Palestinians in 2021 will be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ihavenoahidea on 2021-09-15; known on 2022-02-15; judged right by ihavenoahidea on 2022-01-01.
VŨ THỊ NGỌC ANH / VDUH^2100081073 HCC/ ko xơ gan AFP > 3000 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
TẠ THỊ THỦY / VDUH^2100080860 Hình ảnh u gan phải tính chất không điển hình (Đề nghị phối hợp thêm xét nghiệm). Khối vùng hạ vị ranh giới rõ – TD u mạc treo. U xơ thành sau tử cung. TẠ THỊ THỦY / VDUH^2100080860 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
NGUYỄN VĂN LAM / VDUH^2100080869 nang mạc treo ( 50% confidence )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
VŨ HÀ MY / VDUH^2100080889 Hình ảnh khối lớn tiểu khung giàu mạch theo dõi u buồng trứng. Ít dịch tự do ổ bụng. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
The U.S. Dollar will be less than 50% of global reserve currencies by 2040. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-14; known on 2040-01-01.
there will not be a UK covid lockdown within the next 5 months ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gurgus on 2021-09-13; known on 2022-02-13; judged right by stepan on 2022-03-13.
I'll be in the process of buying a flat by the end of June 2022. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-13; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-04-18.
Community – Scott Alexander mentions the self-referential Metaculus question asking if he mentions that question. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-09-12; known on 2021-10-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-01-04.
Personal, Productivity – I clear my task list for the day by deadline. ( 78% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-09-12; known on 2021-09-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-09-13.
Olaf Scholz will be Chancellor of Germany on 2022-01-01. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by atzeje on 2021-09-11; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by atzeje on 2022-01-04.
COVID has become the new War on Terror. It has been used to justify increased authoritarian encroachment, and it is still ongoing. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by deangc on 2021-09-10; known on 2025-09-10.
At least one of the two ESSLLI 2022 proposals I have participated in will be accepted ( 90% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-10; known on 2021-09-20; judged right by Tot on 2021-09-20.