PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11070	15380	15869	16611	30111	7850	96891

AR glasses announced at Apple Event ( 10% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.

Apple TV announced at Apple Event ( 33% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.

AirTags announced at Apple Event ( 75% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.

iMac with Apple Silicon announced at Apple Event ( 40% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.

iPad Pro w/ MiniLED announced at Apple Event ( 90% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.

btc at 100k+ in two years ( 60% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2023-04-19.

eth at 5k+ in a year ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2022-04-19; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-20.

Germany's Greens choose Robert Habeck as chancellor candidate before May ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.

Germany's CDU/CSU will choose Armin Laschet as chancellor candidate before May ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-05-01.

Politics, US – The US government considers itself to be meeting the troop withdrawal requirements of the 'US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan' at the start of 2021-10-01. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-10-17.

COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 18th of May 2021. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-19.

COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 10th of May 2021. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.

Personal, Productivity – I do another interview prep practice session by deadline. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-04-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-24.

Personal – I try to develop a “potential breakthrough” as my choiceworthiness model of today puts it before 2050. ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-17; known on 2050-01-01.

SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-16; known on 2027-01-01; judged right by casey123 on 2021-04-29.

Personal, Productivity – I do at least an hour's work for G by deadline. ( 92% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-16; known on 2021-04-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-18.

The Californian 2021 fire season will burn more than 4,257,863 acres (as reported by a CalFire page such as https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/ or https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/) ( 30% confidence )

Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2022-02-01.

The J&J vaccine will be administered in the US on May 1st: either administration is not paused or it is paused and resumed before May 1st ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-05-01.

Alexei Navalny (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny) (born 4 June 1976) dies within five (5) years ( 67% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2021-04-13; known on 2026-04-13.

SN-15 to fly by the end April ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-12; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-01.

I'll fall asleep within one hour. ( 65% confidence )

Created by EliTyre on 2021-04-09; known on 2021-04-10; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-04-10.

China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 24% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.

Going to finish 2 books in April ( 90% confidence )

Created by Alk on 2021-04-06; known on 2021-04-30.

I am going to resign before the end of May ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Alk on 2021-04-06; known on 2021-05-31.

I am going to produce more than 20 kg tomatoes ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alk on 2021-04-06; known on 2021-09-01.

Donald Trump starts a new political party before the end of 2024 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-04-05; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by dzierzanowskir on 2021-04-11.

Flying cars by 2025 ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by robbins042 on 2021-04-05; known on 2021-04-05.

I will graduate College ( 100% confidence )

Created by SRA311CK on 2021-04-04; known on 2022-01-16; judged right by Goddess 21 days ago.

Over 50% of current drivers will be using auto driven cars.1 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Yoro on 2021-04-04; known on 2040-01-01.

Personal, Productivity – I read up to page 650 of GEB by deadline. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-03.

I get a COVID vaccine before the end of April ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-30.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] none of these parties ( 1% confidence )