Trudeau government implements a new NEP without being substantially different from the old one(ie doesn't subsidize alberta for loss) ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-24; known on 2023-06-01.

By June 1, Donetsk and Lughansk under complete Russian control, and Ukraine to have officially dropped any plans of joining NATO or EU, and all sanctions on Russia lifted. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-01; known on 2023-06-01.

Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by wslh on 2013-05-28; known on 2023-05-28.

bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs ( 57% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-07; known on 2023-05-22.

Eliza and Georgia Gerber kiss before semester ends ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ethanmg01 on 2023-02-24; known on 2023-05-13.

I will receive an economics PhD within the next 10 years ( 20% confidence )

Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2023-05-09.

Adding " wedding" to the middle of ~20-token prompts, will, on average, increase wedding-related wordcount relative to adding to the beginning or end. ( 60% confidence )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-01; known on 2023-05-02.

The “EM drive” within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond “still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data” ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2023-05-02.

From 2 May 2019, Apple Inc. (Share price 2 May: $209.15) will yield more than Tesla share price (Share price 2 May: $244.10) in 4 years on a percentage basis. ( 0% confidence )

Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2023-05-02.

Over the next five years, the Boston Celtics will win more regular season games than the Philadelphia 76ers. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davatk on 2018-05-06; known on 2023-05-01.

example prediction test ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by speeze on 2023-04-25; known on 2023-04-25.

When will GCSE Exam Qs be live on the platform for students? Background: Exam Qs must be available for use by students on the platform for bio, chem, and phys, for AQA, Edexcel & IGCSE. Outcome: April 5th – 25th. ( 60% confidence )

Created by amadeuscarnegie@yahoo.co.uk on 2023-02-23; known on 2023-04-25.

mccabe will go to jail or be found dead ( 80% confidence )

Created by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-04-24; known on 2023-04-24.

During the election of 2024 for President, both Independents and Republicans (the Republicans had been in decline) will put up vigorous campaigns against the Democrat. ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Turtleread on 2012-11-05; known on 2023-04-21.

Will I pass all my exams (Micro, Macro, Maths, Statistics, Business) for this semester (1st semester of my bachelor). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-04-19.

I will file my 2023 tax return on time ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2023-04-19.

[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The + 64 coefficient additions generally produce less wedding-focused completions than +4 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14.

[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The +/- 64 coefficient additions produce less coherent behavior ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14.

It will rain ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by nadrien on 2023-04-06; known on 2023-04-07.

It will rain tomorrow in New York ( 60% confidence )

Created by jjb7077 on 2023-04-02; known on 2023-04-03.

UK police officers will routinely use real-time (live) facial recognition software and be equipped with webcams to aid in the apprehension of wanted criminals. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by AdamSmith on 2016-04-30; known on 2023-04-02.

By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Digglerson on 2013-03-25; known on 2023-04-01.

test ( 100% confidence )

Created by trey on 2023-03-28; known on 2023-03-28.

(Habits) >70% of habits completed for the week of Mar 20 ( 50% confidence )

Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-03-20; known on 2023-03-27.

NFT games will be one of the hottest topics of 2022, led by The Sandbox, where it's crypto token SAND will reach as high as $30. But eventually, “NFT Games” will fade in by 2023, because everyone will realize how bad and how unsustainable they are. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2023-03-18.

Brock Osweiler is out of NFL within 7 years ( 7% confidence )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-13; known on 2023-03-13.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 24 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2023-03-01.

After X-Men DFP, Hugh Jackman will reprise his role as Wolverine in another movie. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-11-11; known on 2023-03-01.

I will catch up with my flashcard debt duplicate of: https://manifold.markets/EmrikGarden/will-i-have-caught-up-with-my-flash ( 15% confidence )

Created by emrik on 2022-11-25; known on 2023-03-01.

At 1030pm on Sunday Feb 26, there will be a person functionally checking whether or not you are registered for the party via fb/partiful. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-25; known on 2023-02-27.

Doubling channel 55 will work to increase cheese-seeking by at least 10% without destroying performance, in >25% of mazes with decision-squares. ( 20% confidence )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-17; known on 2023-02-17.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 99.5% of the time ( 10% confidence )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 99.5% of the time ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.

In the future, a woman will be on the agenda with great scientific research, and this case will affect female software developers in a good way. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by smodnix on 2020-07-11; known on 2023-01-20.

I will self-identify as vegan ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16.

ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu) ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2016-04-28; known on 2023-01-02.

ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by muflax on 2016-04-27; known on 2023-01-02.

I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-24; known on 2023-01-01.

By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. —Alyssa Vance ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.

By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. —Alyssa Vance ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.