Google widely seen (by investors, wall street) as having successfully solved the issue of how to monetise a voice-centric world (including if such a world does not occur, or they avoid the problem). ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2021-01-01.

feedly will be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 25% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Quora to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Age of Empires II to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Goodreads to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.

LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is > 7 ( 87% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.

There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01.

Ontario leaves cap & trade system ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-01.

Slack to allow unpaid slacks to view messages older than 10,000 messages old sometime before 2020 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2017-02-07; known on 2021-01-01.

At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.

U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. —Smithers & Co. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jprettner on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-01.

Javascript to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Tuition at Harvard to be more expensive in 2020 than it is in 2015 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.

Quora to be more popular than reddit by 2020 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.

Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba ) ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

ATF Elimination Act passes ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.

Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.

adsfasdfasdf ( 70% confidence )

Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.

We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.

Matlab to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Poker to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

compulsory conscription in sweden, or sweden invaded ( 57% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2021-01-01.

IBM to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 38% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

reddit to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.

Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2021-01-01.

Major personalities on predictionbook (gwern, JoshuaZ, etc) will migrate over to another prediction-based website by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Chess to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

Daffy will move out of the Bay Area ( 70% confidence )

Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.

Justin Trudeau is caught some group of protesters the finger ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-08; known on 2021-01-01.

Trump explicitly invokes a credit wake ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.

The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open either its Milpitas or its Berryessa station within 12 months after opening its Warm Springs/South Fremont station. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2020-12-31.

larry flynt pays out 10m$ ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-15; known on 2020-12-31.

Uber CEO to actually buy Half a Million Autonomous Electric Cars from Tesla By 2020 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31.

Bill Gates won't develop an affordable water-less toilet for the third world by 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2020-12-31.

Crypto-to-crypto trades may be considered (by the IRS) like-kind (not trigger capital gains). Void if it is not litigated or the IRS never delivers an official judgement. ( 2% confidence )

Created by lavalamp on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-31.

“A March 2004 article stated: "More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-12-31.

Saudi Arabia misses key financial targets ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31.

“there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject” —magfrump ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31.

By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%… +/- .9 percent. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Lissy on 2015-11-04; known on 2020-12-31.

Humboldt Fog will be super popular (written up as super trendy in a mainstream publication) at some point before 2020 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Benquo on 2015-02-14; known on 2020-12-31.

At least some class of felons(for example those on a sex offender registry with convictions of violent crime) in the US required to get microchips implanted in them upon release ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-16; known on 2020-12-31.

Bill Simmons: Sports gambling legal in the US by 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-09-06; known on 2020-12-31.

KPCB’s Internet Trends Report will hit 1,800 pages by 2020 ( 34% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-12-31.

Darksydephil loses his house (or begins an unavoidable slide in that direction) ( 75% confidence )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31.