Will mastodonusercount@bitcoinhackers.org report more than 50 million accounts? ( 20% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2024-01-01.

I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-25; known on 2024-01-01.

First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.

Binance goes bankrupt ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

I will read one serious book on quantum field theory by end 2023 Depends on finishing my study of general relativity. ( 30% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

Geraldo Alckmin's (Brazilian vice-president-elect) role in 2023 will be regarded as one of Lula's right arms in governance ( 70% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-19; known on 2024-01-01.

JS goes to work for the company in London ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-06; known on 2024-01-01.

I won't intentionally view any pornographic material in 2023 ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-17; known on 2024-01-01.

I will beat the world speedrunning record in I wanna find my destiny by the end of 2023 ( 40% confidence )

Created by sty.silver on 2023-03-15; known on 2024-01-01.

Kinetic war between US and China ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the median forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 48% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.

Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2024-01-01.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024, high frequency trading will be significantly reduced in the US (either by regulation or by diminishing profits) ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.0388? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

I will get a job in academia in Denmark after my PhD ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ayegill on 2020-07-16; known on 2024-01-01.

I will have my first paper accepted for publication by the end of 2024. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jakebeardsley on 2021-12-17; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the median forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the mean forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1.93e+23 days? ( 45% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.

US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 478494147? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the modal forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1.42e+49? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.00305? ( 83% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.

'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lisalister on 2014-09-07; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

“That by 2024 “artificial” life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.” ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-01-01.

'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

I will finish the manuscript of Finish What Matters (or comparable book) in 2023, meaning it has been handed off to an editor, or delivered to a paying customer as a Preview Edition ( 60% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.

Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-02-14; known on 2024-01-01.

At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.

I will have published at least four new reels for TikTok or comparable platform in the fourth quarter of 2023 ( 30% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.

A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-12; known on 2024-01-01.

Copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse will be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Trump will be in prison or dead at the start of 2024. ( 5% confidence )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-14; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.

Phthalate exposure in utero link to reduced intelligence to be confirmed/replicated by at least two other studies by January 1, 2024 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-15; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024 James F will publicly express regret at the amount of time he wasted investigating the claims of various religions. ( 75% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2014-03-08; known on 2024-01-01.