StuntID will not a year state that they were overly pessimistic about the improvement rate of AI systems. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-06; known on 2024-04-07.

Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.

Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.

[Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.

[Effective Altruism 2024:] Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.

[Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.

I will have published a paper by March 15, 2024 on Zaremba's function and weighted GM-AM inequality. ( 62% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-17; known on 2024-03-15.

Bank Term Funding Program renewed or other liquidity for banks' U.S. Treasuries provided on or before expiration ( 95% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-13; known on 2024-03-12.

If you are still in touch with kyle, then I predict that whatever relationship he is in with this guy will end within 1.5 years ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2023-03-11; known on 2024-03-11.

(John Brady) – David Hambly will buy drinks at path update 2024 for complaining about work. ( 75% confidence )

Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-08-28; known on 2024-03-03.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 25 ( 10% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2022-04-28; known on 2024-03-01.

The eagles don't win the superbowl ( 60% confidence )

Created by kscreen24 on 2023-11-13; known on 2024-02-15.

the dallas cowboys will not win the superbowl ( 100% confidence )

Created by mdr111 on 2023-08-13; known on 2024-02-15.

Eagles win superbowl ( 60% confidence )

Created by RyanS on 2023-10-31; known on 2024-02-14.

Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.

Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.

Elon Musk will run for a political office in 2024 ( 79% confidence )

Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2024-01-16.

Elon Musk will attempt to run for president in 2024 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2024-01-16.

Jacinda Ardern will win a new term. ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2024-01-16.

Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.

I am still married to my current partner ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2017-01-11; known on 2024-01-11.

PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by avi on 2023-09-27; known on 2024-01-10.

[I will get married in] 2023 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02.

It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2023 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 20% confidence )

Created by M on 2023-01-01; known on 2024-01-02.

The “Steamboat Willie” cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2024-01-02.

The duration of copyright in America will be extended before 2024 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aoeu on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.

Egypt will default on its debt by the end of 2023 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2024-01-01.

US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.

Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-09; known on 2024-01-01.

Trump will be in prison or dead at the start of 2024. ( 5% confidence )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-14; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024, high frequency trading will be significantly reduced in the US (either by regulation or by diminishing profits) ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20; known on 2024-01-01.

I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 478494147? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

I will weight less than 67kg at end 2023 currently 72kg ( 60% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

I will read one serious book on quantum field theory by end 2023 Depends on finishing my study of general relativity. ( 30% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/source/electric/bug/475181 is still a valid bug in GNU electric 9.06+dfsg-1 ( 94% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2024-01-01.

Will mastodonusercount@bitcoinhackers.org report more than 50 million accounts? ( 20% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2024-01-01.

early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2024-01-01.

Copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse will be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.00305? ( 83% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Geraldo Alckmin's (Brazilian vice-president-elect) role in 2023 will be regarded as one of Lula's right arms in governance ( 70% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-19; known on 2024-01-01.

'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.

At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.

'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.

Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.