“By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.” ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known 20 days ago.

By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known 20 days ago.

No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known 20 days ago.

By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known 20 days ago.

Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known 20 days ago.

Google Nexus tablets survive longer than Microsoft Surface tablets as a business ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known 20 days ago.

Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Turtleread on 2012-04-07; known 20 days ago.

Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known 20 days ago.

By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known 20 days ago.

Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way – e.g. it maybe is not symmetric. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known 20 days ago.

Marijuana will be legal by 2025 ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-08; known 20 days ago.

/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known 20 days ago.

“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known 20 days ago.

'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known 20 days ago.

The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known 20 days ago.

Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known 20 days ago.

A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known 20 days ago.

By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known 20 days ago.

“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.” ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known 20 days ago.

“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.” ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known 20 days ago.

I will develop some sort of a personal uniform (colour and/or style) and rarely deviate from it. ( 25% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known 20 days ago.

Jeopardy will still be on the air in 2025. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12; known 20 days ago.

GTA 6 will be set in Chicago ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known 20 days ago.

Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known 20 days ago.

yourmorals.org to last through 2025 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known 20 days ago.

India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025 ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known 20 days ago.

SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known 20 days ago.

By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known 20 days ago.

“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known 20 days ago.

'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known 20 days ago.

By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known 20 days ago.

parabiosis will be demonstrated to increase average human lifespan ( 45% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known 20 days ago.

“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known 20 days ago.

Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known 20 days ago.

By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating “rogue planet”. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known 20 days ago.

“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known 20 days ago.

Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known 20 days ago.

Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known 20 days ago.

UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known 20 days ago.

“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known 20 days ago.

The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known 20 days ago.

The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known 20 days ago.

By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known 20 days ago.

Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 200m. ( 20% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known 20 days ago.

“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known 20 days ago.

The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known 20 days ago.

“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.” ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known 20 days ago.

“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known 20 days ago.