I won’t complete another in-person semester at UPenn before the end of 2023 ( 60% confidence )

Created by tamera on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-12-31.

Resolute gets treble damages against Greenpeace thanks to RICO (from 2017 case) ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-08; known on 2023-12-31.

At least one Trump National Security Lottery is put on by the US federal government ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25; known on 2023-12-31.

Have 5 users outside of our existing entrepreneurs on the funder rating database by dec 31, 2023 ( 90% confidence )

Created by kyleschutter on 2023-06-05; known on 2023-12-31.

Floating house will be complete with electric and furnishings by 12/31/2023 ( 70% confidence )

Created by kyleschutter on 2023-06-05; known on 2023-12-31.

New license or license type (like Creative Commons) will be created to try preventing unauthorized use of one own's written, picture, or video material to train AI (eg. LLM) ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-12-31.

“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.” ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.

>128 people actively communicating using RahisiBhasha ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2023-12-31.

USA will default on its debt. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2023-12-25.

No US city with a population of over a million people will require covid vaccines for indoor dining on December 22, 2023. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-22; known on 2023-12-23.

Will I attend a party celebrating the eradication of smallpox on smallpox eradication day (9 dec) next year. The party can be organised by me or by someone else. It will count as a party if we are 4 or more people and we are doing party like things. ( 80% confidence )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.

Will I have significantly less back pain in one year. ( 20% confidence )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.

Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2023-12-16.

I will reach 175lbs body weight by the Oahu marathon ( 60% confidence )

Created by Radhuahua on 2023-08-16; known on 2023-12-10.

Testicular TM ( 100% confidence )

Created by Farah on 2023-12-08; known on 2023-12-03.

Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-01; known on 2023-12-01.

I will not go to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas again in 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-12-01.

Javier Milei will win the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina. ( 60% confidence )

Created by joaquin on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-12-01.

321456; Mehmet Erbaş ( 100% confidence )

Created by Farah on 2023-11-22; known on 2023-11-19.

Republicans will take both houses of Congress in 2022. Without federal legislation protecting voting rights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-25; known on 2023-11-16.

I think the steelers will beat the packers ( 95% confidence )

Created by SRA311sp on 2023-11-12; known on 2023-11-12.

I will still think in early November 2023 that my moderate anxious personality is strongly related to my lifelong sort-of-“constant” internet usage, and in a causal way (internet → anxiety) which reflects my teenage years (10+) ( 90% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-11-08.

80k will give personal 1:1 advice to Prownie ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Leo on 2023-08-18; known on 2023-10-18.

I get in to med school ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-10-15.

Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by raehik on 2018-10-13; known on 2023-10-13.

I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.

Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.

Elections will be held in October 2023 in Pakistan? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Najoomi on 2023-05-14; known on 2023-10-08.

01490734 —> curiga paraganglioma dd myxoid ependymoma ( 70% confidence )

Created by dimasrizaputra@yahoo.co.id on 2023-09-04; known on 2023-10-04.

Massa psoas sign? Hasil PA ( 50% confidence )

Created by dimasrizaputra@yahoo.co.id on 2023-09-04; known on 2023-10-04.

Fewer people globally will die of deseases ( 98% confidence )

Created by Magda on 2023-09-28; known on 2023-09-28.

65616211 – subependymoom ( 50% confidence )

Created by Mathieu_VDM on 2023-07-25; known on 2023-09-25.

“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.

Amazon superará a Cencosud en Sudamérica dentro de 5 años. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-03; known on 2023-09-03.

Khe Hy's friend will not write 45 minutes 4x a week for 3 months. ( 90% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-06-01; known on 2023-09-01.

Case-Shiller National (CSUSHPINSA) will not increase above 303.757 until 30-yr fixed (MORTGAGE30US) is below 6.5% for the prior month, through June 2023. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-10-28; known on 2023-09-01.

I will become Masters at SC2 by end of Summer, 2023 ( 60% confidence )

Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-09-01.

In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-09-01.

I will continue to think that AI alignment (including governance, multiagent, field building etc) is the most important thing for me to work on July 27th 2023. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-07-27.

Will my brother call me/want to talk with me in the next two weeks? ( 20% confidence )

Created by MissReaper on 2023-07-08; known on 2023-07-22.

Páncreas adenocarcinoma 5885272 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Mrosito on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-07-15.

Metástasis hemorragicas 7061675 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Mrosito on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-07-05.

Adept AI's demo is way better than it can actually do (https://twitter.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1590396065072951296) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by cmessinger on 2022-11-10; known on 2023-07-02.

The new host of “The Daily Show” will be Hasan Minhaj ( 60% confidence )

Created by greene on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-07-01.

The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ebloch on 2022-11-09; known on 2023-07-01.

Ectasia ductal ( 60% confidence )

Created by Mrosito on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-06-29.

80000 Key ideas translated and published online in Russian by ( 60% confidence )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known on 2023-06-24.

Epi Cortes cortes antonia 2549808-magdalena Dejca ( 90% confidence )

Created by Mon23 on 2023-06-15; known on 2023-06-20.

Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-18; known on 2023-06-18.

Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by halfwit on 2013-06-14; known on 2023-06-14.