I will get a job in academia in Denmark after my PhD ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ayegill on 2020-07-16; known on 2024-01-01.

Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2024-01-01.

Binance goes bankrupt ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

I will finish the manuscript of Finish What Matters (or comparable book) in 2023, meaning it has been handed off to an editor, or delivered to a paying customer as a Preview Edition ( 60% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.

'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.

https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/source/electric/bug/475181 is still a valid bug in GNU electric 9.06+dfsg-1 ( 94% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2024-01-01.

'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

Geraldo Alckmin's (Brazilian vice-president-elect) role in 2023 will be regarded as one of Lula's right arms in governance ( 70% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-19; known on 2024-01-01.

I move back from London ( 27% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-02; known on 2024-01-01.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.

By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25; known on 2024-01-01.

'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-12; known on 2024-01-01.

Zuckerberg wins against Musk (cond the match happens, cond no technology used in/immediately before battle) ( 77% confidence )

Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2024-01-01.

I will weight less than 67kg at end 2023 currently 72kg ( 60% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-07; known on 2024-01-01.

Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-09; known on 2024-01-01.

Copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse will be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

I finish my PhD (wrote thesis, passed viva) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-01; known on 2024-01-01.

Trump will be in prison or dead at the start of 2024. ( 5% confidence )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-14; known on 2024-01-01.

New Calvin and Hobbes strips released before 2024 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Omid on 2013-10-11; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the mean forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1613.62 days? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the median forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 48% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

I will have my first paper accepted for publication by the end of 2024. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jakebeardsley on 2021-12-17; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the modal forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will mastodonusercount@bitcoinhackers.org report more than 50 million accounts? ( 20% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1.42e+49? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 478494147? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.

Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.

I will beat the world speedrunning record in I wanna find my destiny by the end of 2023 ( 40% confidence )

Created by sty.silver on 2023-03-15; known on 2024-01-01.

early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

“That by 2024 “artificial” life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.” ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-01-01.

US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.

JS goes to work for the company in London ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-06; known on 2024-01-01.

Reddit has an IPO before 2024 ( 82% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-11; known on 2024-01-01.

An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.

The recession that began in 2008 in the US will not be “over” (arbitrarily defined by me as < 5% unemployment for three economic quarters) until 2023. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by deborama on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-24; known on 2023-12-31.

Pepsico rolls out 100 Tesla semi by 2023 https://archive.vn/wip/CR0qy ( 5% confidence )

Created by objclone on 2022-12-16; known on 2023-12-31.

Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2023-12-31.

Resolute gets treble damages against Greenpeace thanks to RICO (from 2017 case) ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-08; known on 2023-12-31.

At least one Trump National Security Lottery is put on by the US federal government ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25; known on 2023-12-31.

“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.” ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.

>128 people actively communicating using RahisiBhasha ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2023-12-31.