Unjudged Predictions
-
By 2025, Kanye West states that he regrets his recent antisemitic statements ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known 17 days ago.
-
By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known 17 days ago.
-
By 2025, the volume of robocalls will exceed the volume of live calls on the regular phone system ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-16; known 17 days ago.
-
yourmorals.org to last through 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known 17 days ago.
-
Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way – e.g. it maybe is not symmetric. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known 17 days ago.
-
By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known 17 days ago.
-
The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-17; known 17 days ago.
-
2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known 17 days ago.
-
Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known 17 days ago.
-
“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known 17 days ago.
-
Ivermectin will be shown to be ineffective as a form of prophylaxis for COVID-19 before 2024. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-03; known 17 days ago.
-
Marijuana will be legal by 2025 ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-08; known 17 days ago.
-
Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known 17 days ago.
-
Usain Bolt sets a new personal best in the 200m. ( 31% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known 17 days ago.
-
[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] <= $6.1 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known 17 days ago.
-
Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-12-21; known 17 days ago.
-
Trump is convicted in relation to the mishandling of classified information case, by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-11; known 17 days ago.
-
Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known 17 days ago.
-
By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 7% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known 17 days ago; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
Trump will start a TV show before 2025. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known 17 days ago.
-
Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-28; known 17 days ago.
-
2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme < $4 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known 17 days ago.
-
Jimmy Carter to become a centenarian ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known 17 days ago.
-
at least one of the two new roundabouts in regina are replaced by traffic lights/normal intersections ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known 17 days ago.
-
Politics, US – Kamala Harris is president or acting president at any point before 2025. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-10; known 17 days ago.
-
Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 200m. ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known 17 days ago.
-
By 2025, Kanye West states that he has begun to take a mood-stabilizing medication again ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known 17 days ago.
-
By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known 17 days ago.
-
Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known 17 days ago.
-
The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-21; known 17 days ago.
-
[Statistics, Culture] For the next calendar year, starting 2021 to 2022, there will be a statistically significant drop in the number of children named 'Corona' ( 55% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-24; known 17 days ago.
-
2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known 17 days ago.
-
2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known 17 days ago.
-
The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves). ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-15; known 17 days ago.
-
Health – Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known 17 days ago.
-
Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known 17 days ago.
-
Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known 17 days ago.
-
I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5) ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-09; known 17 days ago.
-
Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known 17 days ago.
-
U.S. 10 year Treasury yield below 3.5% before 2025 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known 17 days ago.
-
More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known 18 days ago.
-
By the end of 2024, I will spend a 60 day stretch without experiencing any allergy symptoms ( 20% confidence )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known 18 days ago.
-
There'll be an official e-cash system (in competition with bitcoins or whatever the surviving coin system is) by end of 2024. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-25; known 18 days ago.
-
“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the “banking book” be marked to market before 2024.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known 18 days ago.
-
Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op ) ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-16; known 18 days ago.
-
Q2 2023 recession by NBER ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-23; known 18 days ago.
-
Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft ( 7% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known 18 days ago.
-
“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.” ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known 18 days ago.
-
'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known 18 days ago.
-
Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.82% GDP growth rate for Indonesia in 2015- 2024. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known 24 days ago.