/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2025-01-01.

Tom Cotton runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-01; known on 2025-01-01.

We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, Kanye West states that he has begun to take a mood-stabilizing medication again ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.

Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Seyi on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-01.

Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2025-01-01.

Jeopardy will still be on the air in 2025. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12; known on 2025-01-01.

SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2025-01-01.

The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.

Elon Musk will have at least 12 children total (3+ more children) by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sungk2048 on 2022-07-08; known on 2025-01-01.

Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.

Usain Bolt sets a new personal best in the 200m. ( 31% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, the volume of robocalls will exceed the volume of live calls on the regular phone system ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-16; known on 2025-01-01.

Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Turtleread on 2012-04-07; known on 2025-01-01.

Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26; known on 2025-01-01.

UNSONG was created to control the spread of names (in the same way we might want to restrict anthrax or AI research) ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.

2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.

“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.

There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2025-01-01.

I will develop some sort of a personal uniform (colour and/or style) and rarely deviate from it. ( 25% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2025-01-01.

Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 200m. ( 20% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.

Trump will start a TV show before 2025. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.

“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.

New Zealand will repeal the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act by 2025 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2025-01-01.

Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.

The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025 ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating “rogue planet”. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

parabiosis will be demonstrated to increase average human lifespan ( 45% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2025-01-01.

The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2015-10-28; known on 2025-01-01.

BTCUSD does not reach $40,000 before 2025 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2025-01-01.

27 USC 174 incremental revenues TY22+TY23 < 57.1 ( 99% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-14; known on 2025-01-01.

at least one of the two new roundabouts in regina are replaced by traffic lights/normal intersections ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, Kanye West states that he regrets his recent antisemitic statements ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.

The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-10-21; known on 2025-01-01.