Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013.

Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2013-01-24
• gwern said “http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2013/01/how-bitcoin-dies.html ‘probably’ by end of 2013; am being very generous to moldbug since he explicitly says "And I don’t mean epsilon – I mean 0. "” on 2013-01-24
• Tuxedage estimated 5% on 2013-01-24
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2013-01-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2013-01-24
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2013-01-24
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 5% on 2013-01-24
• Pfft estimated 10% on 2013-01-24
• ChristianKl estimated 10% on 2013-01-24
• saturn estimated 5% on 2013-01-26
• dhoe estimated 5% on 2013-01-27
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% and said “The timeline laid out would be somewhat plausible if the deadline were the end of 2015 or 2016. End of 2013? No way.” on 2013-01-27
• ashrewdmint estimated 1% and said “No.” on 2013-01-27
• alecbrooks estimated 10% on 2013-01-28
• Benja estimated 5% on 2013-01-30
• halfwaytogallifrey estimated 1% on 2013-02-11
• Houshalter estimated 0% on 2013-02-15
• procran estimated 2% on 2013-02-18
• Peter Hurford estimated 3% on 2013-03-15
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2013-03-17
• gwern estimated 2% on 2013-03-29
• ChristianKl estimated 1% on 2013-03-30
• hedges estimated 10% on 2013-03-30
• sdr estimated 5% on 2013-04-08
• RandomThinker estimated 11% on 2013-04-08
• NathanMcKnight estimated 75% on 2013-04-15
• olivia estimated 3% on 2013-11-16
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.
• dndtdong said “<br><br><a href="http://timberlandfashionboots99.webs.com"> blog </a><br><br>” on 2015-03-20
• dndtdong said “<br><br><a href="http://tiffany41.webs.com"> blog </a><br><br>” on 2015-04-24