PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.

  • Will Newsome estimated 5% on 2011-09-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Extremely unlikely. Chance of being known to be true in 5 years if it is true? Even more unlikely. ” on 2011-09-14
  • gwern estimated 0% and said “what on earth? what events are your 5% made of, will? as it is, I’m not comfortable giving this any probability…” on 2011-09-14
  • Will Newsome said “Sorry, 10 years was really rather arbitrary because it’s not the sort of thing that would be publicized if true.” on 2011-09-15
  • Will Newsome changed the deadline from “on 2016-09-14” on 2011-09-15
  • Will Newsome said “Changed it to 40 years. Hopefully we’ll have AGI by then that can either vindicate or heartily chuckle at what appears to be my extreme confidence.” on 2011-09-15
  • JoshuaZ said “Eh, even then, previous estimate seems correct. Also, I’m deeply confused by your claim about publication. Why would not be publicized if true? ” on 2011-09-15
  • Will Newsome said “I apologize for repeatedly being so unclear, JoshuaZ. By “publication” I mean something like “serious scientific interest”. I expect it’d be more like an Order of Hermes kinda thing.” on 2011-09-15
  • nshepperd estimated 0% and said “Nope.” on 2011-09-16
  • papermachine estimated 0% on 2011-09-19
  • ZrCa estimated 0% on 2011-09-19
  • Ken estimated 0% on 2011-09-19
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-09-20
  • Konkvistador estimated 0% on 2011-09-23
  • faws estimated 0% and said “Define “magic”. The sort of thing people usually understand under the word magic: 10^-20. Something someone might post facto rationalize as magic: 10^-6” on 2011-09-23
  • Will Newsome said “Thaumaturgy, miracle-working, involving esoteric facts of physics or knowledge of what kinds of thing are simulating you and what their rules are, where they reinforce or interfere with each other.” on 2011-09-24
  • Serge estimated 0% on 2011-10-01
  • mat33 said “Technology becomes a magic for you as soon, as it becames too sophisticated for your understanding. To hack Brahma sounds even more like magics, thought.” on 2011-10-08
  • Sniffnoy estimated 0% on 2011-10-08
  • abamf estimated 3% on 2011-10-09
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-10-10
  • Arets Paeglis   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis estimated 100% on 2011-10-10
  • Arets Paeglis   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis estimated 0% and said “No.” on 2011-10-10
  • lavalamp estimated 0% and said “lolno” on 2011-11-10
  • Leo estimated 0% on 2012-09-07
  • ygert estimated 0% on 2013-01-14
  • nshepperd estimated 0% on 2013-10-11
  • themusicgod1 estimated 0% on 2016-03-16
  • pranomostro estimated 0% on 2019-01-01
  • pranomostro said “I mean, some type of “supernatural” at 2%, okay. But the conjunction makes it quasi-impossible.” on 2019-01-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2019-01-01