Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.

  • Will Newsome estimated 5% on 2011-09-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Extremely unlikely. Chance of being known to be true in 5 years if it is true? Even more unlikely. on 2011-09-14
  • gwern estimated 0% and said “what on earth? what events are your 5% made of, will? as it is, I’m not comfortable giving this any probability…on 2011-09-14
  • Will Newsome said “Sorry, 10 years was really rather arbitrary because it’s not the sort of thing that would be publicized if true.on 2011-09-15
  • Will Newsome changed the deadline from “on 2016-09-14on 2011-09-15
  • Will Newsome said “Changed it to 40 years. Hopefully we’ll have AGI by then that can either vindicate or heartily chuckle at what appears to be my extreme confidence.on 2011-09-15
  • JoshuaZ said “Eh, even then, previous estimate seems correct. Also, I’m deeply confused by your claim about publication. Why would not be publicized if true? on 2011-09-15
  • Will Newsome said “I apologize for repeatedly being so unclear, JoshuaZ. By “publication” I mean something like “serious scientific interest”. I expect it’d be more like an Order of Hermes kinda thing.on 2011-09-15
  • nshepperd estimated 0% and said “Nope.on 2011-09-16
  • papermachine estimated 0% on 2011-09-19
  • ZrCa estimated 0% on 2011-09-19
  • Ken estimated 0% on 2011-09-19
  • bobpage estimated 0% on 2011-09-20
  • Konkvistador estimated 0% on 2011-09-23
  • faws estimated 0% and said “Define “magic”. The sort of thing people usually understand under the word magic: 10^-20. Something someone might post facto rationalize as magic: 10^-6on 2011-09-23
  • Will Newsome said “Thaumaturgy, miracle-working, involving esoteric facts of physics or knowledge of what kinds of thing are simulating you and what their rules are, where they reinforce or interfere with each other.on 2011-09-24
  • Serge estimated 0% on 2011-10-01
  • mat33 said “Technology becomes a magic for you as soon, as it becames too sophisticated for your understanding. To hack Brahma sounds even more like magics, thought.on 2011-10-08
  • Sniffnoy estimated 0% on 2011-10-08
  • abamf estimated 3% on 2011-10-09
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-10-10
  • Arets Paeglis  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis  judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis  judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis estimated 100% on 2011-10-10
  • Arets Paeglis  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis  judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-10.
  • Arets Paeglis estimated 0% and said “No.on 2011-10-10
  • lavalamp estimated 0% and said “lolnoon 2011-11-10
  • Leo estimated 0% on 2012-09-07
  • ygert estimated 0% on 2013-01-14
  • nshepperd estimated 0% on 2013-10-11
  • themusicgod1 estimated 0% on 2016-03-16

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