PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

bitcoin: trades above $7700 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.

bitcoin: trades above $5500 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.

bitcoin: trades above $4200 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.

bitcoin: trades above $3000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-08-01.

bitcoin: trades above $3600 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.

L comes to DEF CON in July 2017 ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.

I go to Kenya in June or July 2017 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.

I go to Ethiopia in June or July 2017 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.

Community, Rationalist – Kernel Project is moved into Manchester by end of August. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-08-01.

By 2018 The Kernel Project will have reached step 9 as defined in https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wmVZJiDjTjxmVshSFSk2rH-b8GLiQ0DJ0Cw1hyOnswM/edit?usp=sharing ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by bendini on 2017-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-08-01.

Politics, UK – Queen's Speech backed by the Conservative Party passes vote in the House of Commons by the end of July 2017, the DUP vote in favour, and as of their most recent public statements are not in coalition with the Conservatives. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.

Politics, EU – EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of July 2017. ( 40% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.

Politics, US – Congress calls Obama to testify under oath before the end of July 2017. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.

Politics, UK – The Conservative Party announces that their policy or backed legislative plan is now to scrap the reduction to housing benefit for those with a spare bedroom, with the announcement coming before the end of July 2017. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.

Politics, UK – The Conservative Party announces that plans for cuts to winter fuel payments are either scrapped or significantly reduced before the end of July 2017. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.

Politics, UK – Conservative Party announces, in some manner, the intent to retain the triple lock on pensions throughout the current parliament, before the end of July 2017. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.

Politics, UK – Queen's Speech backed by the Conservative Party passes vote in the House of Commons by the end of July 2017. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.

Kmart will file for bankruptcy by August of 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by custom on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.

There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the Heron Spear will be used ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Achmanian will find the Heron Spear. ( 35% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Achmanian will be killed ( 30% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the world will be destroyed by Kellhus. ( 10% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the world will be destroyed or its future destruction will be strongly implied. ( 20% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged right by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will be killed by some entity other than Kellhus ( 45% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged right by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will die ( 60% confidence )

Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged right by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.

Politics, Italy – C-Star docks in Catania before the end of the 28th of July 2017. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-07-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-30.

North Korea tests another ICBM within one week ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-29.

Reince Priebus (Reinhold Richard Priebus) will not be the White House Chief of Staff before the end of 2017 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-29.

Politics, UK – Charlie Gard dies before the start of the 9th of August 2017. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-28.

I will meet with someone from my Summer school (ЛШ) cycle whom I didn't know before during the next 2 months #personal ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-09-15; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-28.

Лизу-whaf позовут в ШАД (2017) ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-30; known on 2017-08-05; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-28.

Personal, Business Interactions – BT has not incorrectly billed my bank account by the 1st of September 2017. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-22; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-28.

Habidatum supervisors will tell me to switch to social graph project #personal ( 70% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-07-27; known on 2017-07-28; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-27.

My supervisors will tell me that I did wrong things and was not effective, or that I should really change what I am doing, e.g. be less academic ( 30% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-07-27; known on 2017-07-27; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-27.

Politics, UK – Charlie Gard is ruled to be moved to the home of their parents, with the ruling made on the 26th of July 2017. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-26; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-27.

Habidatum will invite me to non-paid internship ( 55% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-07-26; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-27.

They don't serve a meal on the plane ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-07-25; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-07-26.

Politics, Canada – Winstone Blackmore is found guilty of polygamy. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-07-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-26.

Politics, Syria – No reports that the US or UK governments regard as credible of the Syrian government acting in violation of the ceasefire within a week of the ceasefire taking effect, not even if someone else violated it first. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-07-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-24.

[from tue jul 26 until jul 26 or whenever either fork ends] linear regression( abs(ETH_day[i] – ETC_day[i])),(ETC_day[i]+ETH_day[i])/bitcoin_day[i] ) slope is negative and r > 0.5 ( 53% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-23.

Price of ETH at 2017-07-20 00:37 UTC+0 will be higher than NOW (2017-07-19 21:37 UTC+0) ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-20.

The next actor to play The Doctor (on Doctor Who) will be female. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-07-16.

Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on July 15, 2017 ( 94% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-16.

1 year after block halvening, main USD exchange price will be at least 4.61% higher than the main USD exchange price was at the time of the block halvening. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-16.

I will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games within 1,000 years. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 3017-04-12; judged right by Somni on 2017-07-16.

http://saneoualhadath.me ( 0% confidence )

Created by saneoualhadath on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-15.

Brazilian President Michel Temer will fall, renounce or have impeachment procedures initiated against him until mid-July 2017. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-15.

Community, EA – Ethtruism.com's affiliated AMF fundraiser will get donations amounting to saving at least two lives in expectation, by the 14th of July. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-15.

I will get a 5 on all my AP exams. ( 80% confidence )

Created by thebaelfire on 2015-08-22; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14.

Statistics

Judged Predictions