Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The first run tomorrow (June 13) for NNP succeeds ( 40% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-06-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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Dennis Rodman will visit North Korea at least once during 2017 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-12; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-06-13.
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I will go to a certain meetup. ( 85% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-06-11; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-11.
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Ethan fails a class ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by npcuck on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-06-11.
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It actually does, in fact, storm today here ( 79% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10.
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Conservatives will win the general election. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by neilscott on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by neilscott on 2018-01-29.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May resigns before the end of the 9th of June 2017. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-10.
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Conservatives will win the general election. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by neilscott on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by neilscott on 2018-01-29.
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There will a hung parliament as a result of the current UK general election ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ikmacbeth on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by ikmacbeth on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Conservative Party will increase its majority in parliament as a result of the general election on 8th June. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Labour Party will lose seats as a result of the general election on 8th June ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May attends a TV debate with one or more leaders of other parties before the next UK General Election. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-09.
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10 or fewer political parties win seats in the 2017 UK election ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Liberal Democratic party will gain seats as a result of the general election on 8th June ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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I feel happier an more relaxed on Friday 9th than I did on Wednesday 7th June (slight anxiety) ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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The Tory party will win the UK election with a majority. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lauragonzalez on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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The UK snap general election results in a hung parliment ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Labour finish on 280+ in #GE2007 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09; known on 2017-07-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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The Scottish National Party will win at least 50 seats in the snap General Election. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham North. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency: >= 30% vote for Liberal Democrat MP ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – North East Somerset constituency elects conservative MP ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency elects conservative MP ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham East. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Cambridge ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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The Scottish National Party will win the same number of seats as in 2015. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham South. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Midlothian ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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World population hits 7.5 billion in 2017 ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Trump approves dapl >90 days from inauguration but <180 days from inauguration ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Resolution 1 : I will spend equal time with people who live within PRISM/walled gardens like facebook as time outside those walls ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Front National will not end up in power. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
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Politics, US – Financial Choice Act is passed by the US House of Representatives before the end of June. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-09.
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Front National will not end up in power. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
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macron president 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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STC is privatized ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Assuming I start the new job successfully, after one year from the first day of work I will find it a more rewarding use of my life than my old contracting job, well worth quitting for ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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President Bernie Sanders Assassinated ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Non-test nuclear weapon detonation, intentional or not, before or during the first Comey testimony on Thursday ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-08.
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Donald Trump will tweet at least one response during the Comey testimony ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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Donald Trump will tweet at least one response during the Comey testimony ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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Donald Trump will tweet at least one response during the Comey testimony ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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Politics, US – Greg Gianforte apologises to the reporter he was charged with the assault of, including an apology that continues to understate things so long as it includes admission of error, by end of June. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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Politics, US – Trump or a representative announces the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem by the end of the 7th of June. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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France s next president (2017 election unless Hollande resign) will be right-wing ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06.
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Macron is going to select a prime minister ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Orian2 on 2017-05-08; known on 2017-05-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06.
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The United States will reach less than 5% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 48% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-06-05.
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I go to CRev. ( 40% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-06-05; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-05.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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Tech, Computex – Before the end of Computex, AMD states an intended month for the release of Ryzen Threadripper CPUs. ( 78% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-04.