Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will get a 4 or 5 on all my AP exams ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by thebaelfire on 2015-08-22; known on 2017-06-16; judged right by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14.
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July 14 Soyuz Kanopus-V-IK launches successfully ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-13; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-14.
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Kmart will file for bankruptcy by August of 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by custom on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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From today until January 1st, 2018 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2019 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2020 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2021 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2022 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2023 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 60 or higher. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by prtlmpf on 2017-07-12.
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Atlassian shares will trade for $30 by June 1 2017. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-13; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by prtlmpf on 2017-07-12.
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My thinkpad's battery will run out during the bus drive to Summer School ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-12.
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Parents' loan July payment > $999 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-11.
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Open Phil makes a grant on meat alternatives within five years. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-07-11.
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Clinton-traed iana or icann lobbying to permaremove wikileaks ability to use DNS ( 15% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2017-01-14; judged wrong by prtlmpf on 2017-07-10.
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Joni will find the fact that I love this site funny, but unsurprising ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2017-07-10; known on 2017-07-10; judged right by lukefreeman on 2017-07-10.
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Kmart will file for bankruptcy by August of 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by custom on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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July 7, 2017 will live in infamy . ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by baltemose on 2017-05-06; known on 2017-07-07; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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nuclear war by july 7, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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When I ask DW, he will tell me that he did successfully submit an EA Grant by the deadline. ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07; known on 2017-07-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07.
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Someone in the ID will win the US Powerball lottery (and I hear about it) by the end of 6 July ( 0% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07.
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At least one other person will be tripped up by the Credence game question about “the” “A Christmas Carol” movie, a question that assumes that there should be only one film on this page: http://www.imdb.com/find?s=all&q=A+Christmas+Carol ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2016-06-14; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-06.
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During my Cincinnati to Chicago bus trip, my plant will tip over and lose soil or otherwise get damaged. ( 50% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-05; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-07-06.
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During my Cincinnati to Chicago bus trip, my plant will tip over and lose soil or otherwise get damaged. ( 50% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-05; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-07-06.
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Politics, Venezuela – Oscar Perez found and captured by the government by the 6th of July. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-06.
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Politics, Venezuela – Helicopter used in attack on Supreme Court is found before the 6th of July. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-07-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-06.
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Space X July 5 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e launches successfully ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-05; known on 2017-07-06; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-06.
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Airtable will change their pricing or be acquired before 2017. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2017-07-05.
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I will finish (in the sense of it being usable) my prediction app by end of June 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2017-01-04; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-07-05.
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[The winner of the Albany scrabble tournament is] Joey Mallick ( 23% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-30; known on 2017-07-05; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-07-05.
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[The winner of the Albany scrabble tournament is] Mack Meller ( 28% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-30; known on 2017-07-05; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-07-05.
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[The winner of the Albany scrabble tournament is] Will Anderson ( 34% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-30; known on 2017-07-05; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-07-05.
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The US Govt acknowledges that the 2017 July 4 North Korea missile test was of an ICBM ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by kuudes on 2017-07-04.
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aljazeera shut down ( 6% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-23; known on 2017-07-04; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-04.
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FTSE 100 over 7,000 on July 1st ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-01-17; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by penten on 2017-07-03.
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[Space X July 2 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e] launches successfully [punish myself for not checking the weather] ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-07-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-07-03.
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[Space X July 2 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e] launches and lands successfully [punish myself for not checking the weather] ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-07-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-07-03.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Korean television shows and series tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-03.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Internet protocols tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Analytical chemistry tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Insects tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-02.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-07-02.
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Greece will have a Guaranteed Minimum Income or other type of basic income before end of 06/2017 for more than 90% of its working age population. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-08-16; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-02.
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Parents' loan July payment > $1400 ( 65% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-02.
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No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored “Extreme Drought” by July 1 2017 ( 15% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-02.
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The EA Funds team will decide to continue with the EA Funds after the initial three-month period. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-02.
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Person renting apartment will misgender me? Maybe? ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-06-04; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-07-02.
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Ubuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is something else ( 25% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-02.
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Ubuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is actually SystemD ( 25% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-02.
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Ubuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is actually Linux ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-02.