Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Ethereum's price at 2017-08-19 01:00 UTC+0 will be higher than at 2017-07-19 01:00 UTC+0 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19.
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Steve Bannon (Stephen Kevin Bannon) will not be the White House Chief Strategist before the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-16; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-18.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in 2 months ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2017-08-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-08-18.
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I will move to L29ah's apartments during the next month ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-08-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-08-18.
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Created by Pablo on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-08-15; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-15.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be antifa escaping from BLM protesters ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15.
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Charlottesville car admits to being a conservative ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15.
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I will attend EA Global San Francisco for at least one day between 11-13 August 2017 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-08-13; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-08-14.
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I will get out of the apartment before 9:15am on Aug 12, 2017 ( 80% confidence )
Created by tmarkov on 2017-08-13; known on 2017-08-13; judged wrong by tmarkov on 2017-08-13.
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I will get up from bed before 8am on Aug 12, 2017 ( 60% confidence )
Created by tmarkov on 2017-08-13; known on 2017-08-13; judged right by tmarkov on 2017-08-13.
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Debian Stretch goes Stable ( 62% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11.
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C++17 released ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11.
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I will clean up summer bike before summer, ie it won't sit covered in mud like the winter bike was during the summer ( 28% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11.
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US Navy conducts a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea within 30 days ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-05; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-10.
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The fresh scar on my leg will be healed in 2 weeks ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-08-08; judged wrong by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-08-10.
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Sarah Palin named ambassador to Canada ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-09; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Sarah Palin named ambassador to Canada ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-09; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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bitcoin hard fork occurs ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-26; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-09.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party at the start of the 9th of August. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-09.
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EA Grants receives >=$1M USD in total fundraising requests from all submitted 2017 applications ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07; known on 2017-08-07; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-08.
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The sun will explode. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by tfcd1200 on 2017-08-07; known on 2017-08-08; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-08-08.
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“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-08-07.
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USA real GDP growth rate for 2016 will be under 2.4% ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Afforess on 2017-08-07.
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Personal, Business Interactions – BT's refund emails actually correspond to a refund arriving in my bank account before the end of the 4th of August 2017. ( 73% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-30; known on 2017-08-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-07.
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Personal, Business Interactions – My Halifax card arrives before next Monday. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-07.
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Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's “See You Again” will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Justin Bieber's “Sorry” will. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-07.
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Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's “See You Again” will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's “Gangnam Style” will. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-07.
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Paragon Exhibition Tournament winner is Team Reborn ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-04; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-06.
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Shape of You will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-06.
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Paragon Exhibition Tournament Finals is Reborn vs Oxygen ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-04; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-05.
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Both backups fail ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05.
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Despacito will reach 3 billion YouTube video views on or before September 1, 2017, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 3 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 96% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-30; known on 2017-09-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-04.
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Apple is going to discontinue iPod touch in 3 years ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-04.
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TWOPENCES is in the most recent North American Scrabble dictionary ( 90% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-03; known on 2017-08-03; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-08-03.
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The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date) ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-11; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Waring on 2017-08-03.
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There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
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Arianespace Vega Aug. 1 or 2 Optsat 3000 & Venus launches successfully ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-02.
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Colbert stops being a late show host by August 2017 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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August payment of parents loan > $1400 ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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August payment of parents loan > $700 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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Personal, Business Interactions – My Halifax card arrives today. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-02.
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The Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by leo_grint on 2017-08-02.
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The Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by leo_grint on 2017-08-02.
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[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between July 1 and July 31, 2017 ( 55% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-02.
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I will have moved to the UK by this August. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-16; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-08-02.
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The scratch marks on my chest will fade after a week. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Somni on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-07-22; judged right by Somni on 2017-08-02.
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I go to DEFCON in July 2017 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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I ordered matte AUO B140HAN01.3 screen on ebay. I will get exactly this screen. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by crabman on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $3000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $10,000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.